Contact Energy - CEN Chart

[shambles]

Recently upgraded to a buy at 6.08.. Valuation just over $8.

It is clear that the worst is behind CEN. The wholesale electricity
market is operating “normally”, electricity demand is rebounding
and customer numbers are increasing again. In addition, CEN’s gas
peaking and gas storage facilities provide operational flexibility and
its geothermal options are the cheapest forms of new generation in
NZ.

[fish]

[QUOTE=Lawso;291890]There's been no discussion here about CEN for quite some time and I suggest some further analysis/comment wouldn't go amiss.

NOT A GOOD TIME TO SELL-imho

Clearly undervalued -In my opinion the sp is more likely to rise $3 in the next 3 years than it is to fall even 30 cents .
Unlike TPW the sp has been very volatile over the past 2 years-if you must sell try and do it when the share looks expensive rather than todays cheap price-dont let frustration get the better of patience
Ontop of that we have a dividend that equals any bank deposit return .
I accumulated a lot at the end of last year and expect will be holding long-term

[Arbitrage]

Aspect Huntley value it at $6.25 and recommend to "Hold".

[Lawso]

Thanks for the comments, people, especially fish's wise words:

if you must sell try and do it when the share looks expensive rather than todays cheap price-dont let frustration get the better of patience

Maybe I'll wait a while.

[percy]

Lawso.
Craigs have CEN as buy. Target price $7.42

[Grimy]

After being out for about 2 years (sold at mid$8s) got back in at $5.75 this morning. Had been a holder since first listing, and although I'm definitely not a trader, it seems to be a stock that just goes up and down, so reasonably easy to not make too big a mess of buying and selling.

[troyvdh]

grimy....me thinks that you will do very very well....a couple of years back some folk thought this outfit were a spec buy at $11.....its still pumping out the stuff and it aint cheaper....cheers...

[gonzo56]

Can anyone forecast the performance of this stock?
It has'nt been over $6.35 for over a year. Today it hit $6.35; Sell, Hold??

[gonzo56]

Can anyone forecast the performance of this stock?
It has'nt been over $6.35 for over a year. Today it hit $6.35; Sell, Hold??

It ended the day at $6.40, I guess mostly due to the fact people were excited that 75% of holders choose to keep the bonus shares issued.
I can't decide if this is strong signal to Hold or just hot air...(that will expel tomorrow) Oh well, I think I’ll ride it out.
Btw, I realise I’m talking to myself

[macduffy]

We're listening, gonzo.

It's just that we can't forecast stock prices!

I hold CEN but largely as a hedge against increases in my power bills, I must admit. So far the bills have increased, CEN rather less so!

[Steve]

CEN may creep up to 660 - 670 to test its high of the last 12 months before having a bit of a breather?

Anyone know how are the lake levels holding up for winter compared to previous years?

[Sideshow Bob]

Believe the main hydro lakes such as Pukaki and Tekapo are very close to normal (or the average) for this time of year

[mr.needs]

Anyone know how are the lake levels holding up for winter compared to previous years?

Check out this site. It shows up to date daily storage levels and weekly inflows.

http://www.electricityinfo.co.nz/com...Page.hydrology

[Steve]

Check out this site. It shows up to date daily storage levels and weekly inflows.

http://www.electricityinfo.co.nz/com...Page.hydrology

Thanks for that!

[gonzo56]

"The New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) has given its $8 million a year electricity contract to Contact Energy for the next three years."

Looking good!

[CJ]

"The New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) has given its $8 million a year electricity contract to Contact Energy for the next three years."

The previous supplier was Meridian (SOE).

The funny thing with SOE's is that assuming Contact is making a profit, it is the government that is missing out as there is leakage into the corporate sector. Taxpayer gets screwed.

Disc: Happy CEN holder.

[troyvdh]

....I cant help thinking...if my surname was Buffet.....I would be buying like a pig in muck........mmmm...does Buffet have 2 t's....

[iceman]

As a Contact home customer, I recently received an offer from Trustpower to transfer to them. They offered no ETS or other increases (except GST) for 12 months and a 15% (as opposed to 10%) early payment discount. Contact meanwhile increased their price by over 3% due to ETS. If I pay on time and get early payment discount, I would pay around 9.1% less for my electricity if supplied by Trustpower rather than Contact for at least the next 12 months. I sent an email to Contact as a concerned shareholder and customer and asked if they would respond to Trustpower. I receved NO reply. After waiting for 3 weeks I signed over to Truspower and then a few days later had a ph call from Contact trying to offer me a one off discount on my next power bill !! It appears their customer service is of the same level as their treatment of their shareholders with the Director's fees fiasco a couple of years ago. They seem to have learnt nothing from that debacle and I predict a customer exodus in my area and any other areas where cosutomers may receive similar offers.

Discl: Still holding a small parcel of CEN

[percy]

....I cant help thinking...if my surname was Buffet.....I would be buying like a pig in muck........mmmm...does Buffet have 2 t's....

Yes 2 t's,no milk or sugar.

[Jaa]

I'll add another customer story into the mix. Recently moved into a large cold house with gas hot water heating in central Wellington. Did the rational thing and used powerswitch.org.nz to compare the different power and gas companies. We were unsurprisingly rated a heavy usage household and the calculator spat out the following figures:

Meridian: $2,950/yr (least expensive)
Everyone else
Contact: $3,200/yr (most expensive)

Contact was the existing supplier to the house and thus has lost another connection. In the 3 years I have been in Wellington across 3 houses in different suburbs , Meridian has been consistently the cheapest supplier with Contact who are the incumbent for the area I believe consistently being the most expensive.