Contact Energy - CEN Chart

[workingdad]

Aluminum prices over the last two months have had a gradual increase in prices from the lowest price in previous 52 weeks of .65us cents/lb to .69.

Still some way to go before tiwai will be happy but I suspect it will still be here in the long term also.

[Traderx]

Does anyone have any research on which of the gentailers are long generation/short retail. If Huntly closes, these will be the ones that earn big profits. Until Tiwai closes, then those long retail will be the winners.

If I was a gambling man, I would put money on Tiwai being open 5 years from now.

I don't have any research per se but my view is as follows

MEL - generally long in an average hydro inflows year (due to hydro uncertainty)
GNE - could choose to be long (i.e have enough optional coalstockpile/rankine capacity to be long but will be neutral when rankine units depart)
CEN- could choose to be long (i.e have enough optional ahuroa/gas plant/diesel peakers capacity to be long)
MRP - after southdown closure would expect to be slightly short
TPW- short without purchase contracts


So to answer your question in a post huntly rankine units closure scenario (which may not eventuate) I'd say MEL holds the cards in a moderate to wet year, and CEN holds the cards in a dry year.

Of course the gentailers have the ability to take fairly long dated positions in the markets to set up a variety of different exposures, it just a question of what price they can get that at. So I wouldn't expect to see a radical shiift in risk/p&L post rankines. However someone will need to build something, or tiwai to close, or a negotiated deal with GNE soon.

Disc small long GNE

[workingdad]

still only 3/4 of the way through the share buyback. Nothing so far this month but some bigger turnover again today so maybe.....

with MRP results showing highest quarter of national consumption and their sales falling 7% CEN is one of the remaining in line for perhaps a pick up.

not expecting a stunning half year results to Dec 15 but maybe things improving since then.

The market hasn't exactly been stellar this year and CEN caught up in that a bit but still seems good divvy's down the line if the share price holds up and even dare I say it increase

[xafalcon]

Are we expecting CEN to issue a summary of December 2015 operating performance today? It would be good to get a heads-up before they release interim results next month

[Cricketfan]

Are we expecting CEN to issue a summary of December 2015 operating performance today? It would be good to get a heads-up before they release interim results next month

Out now: https://nzx.com/companies/CEN/announcements/276979

[BlackPeter]

Are we expecting CEN to issue a summary of December 2015 operating performance today? It would be good to get a heads-up before they release interim results next month

Here we go:

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/229002.pdf

On a first look - I saw nothing too exciting: hydro levels quite average, demand (slowly) rising. Prices ok-ish.

[xafalcon]

Here we go:

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/229002.pdf

On a first look - I saw nothing too exciting: hydro levels quite average, demand (slowly) rising. Prices ok-ish.

I think shareholders got enough "excitement" from the November summary. Good to see a benign December summary. Makes me more confident about next months interim update and dividend

[fish]

sp falling-?due to fall in customer numbers and more significant drop in production
Cost of generation also falling
Will free cash flow be increasing or decreasing?

[sb9]

Does anyone know if the buy back of shares on market is finished or they still buying?

The last buy back notice that I could find was dated 22nd Dec 2015 on NZX website.

[Arbroath]

Does anyone know if the buy back of shares on market is finished or they still buying?

The last buy back notice that I could find was dated 22nd Dec 2015 on NZX website.

It wasn't finished....from memory about 2/3rds done...maybe as Interim is only 10 days or so away they will re-start after results are out.