Contact Energy - CEN Chart

[sb9]

It wasn't finished....from memory about 2/3rds done...maybe as Interim is only 10 days or so away they will re-start after results are out.

Thanks for that Arbroath.

Seriously contemplating topping at these levels, any thoughts around that from any of the members, thx.

[xafalcon]

In regards to the share buy-back, I am perplexed as to why they are not buying up large at these levels. The buy-back scheme was capital capped, so they would remove more shares from circulation at the current lower SP. It would also boost upcoming dividend payment on a per share basis.

Perhaps the imminent result announcement will be poor and they expect an even lower SP?

[fish]

In regards to the share buy-back, I am perplexed as to why they are not buying up large at these levels. The buy-back scheme was capital capped, so they would remove more shares from circulation at the current lower SP. It would also boost upcoming dividend payment on a per share basis.

Perhaps the imminent result announcement will be poor and they expect an even lower SP?

I would think the broker buying the shares would not be privy to the upcoming result.
The broker though could be expecting a poor result and hence not buying.
If one had the ability and time to analyse the monthly operational results it would enable a good prediction.
Snoopy has the ability to do this .

[Snoopy]

I would think the broker buying the shares would not be privy to the upcoming result.
The broker though could be expecting a poor result and hence not buying.
If one had the ability and time to analyse the monthly operational results it would enable a good prediction.
Snoopy has the ability to do this .

Thanks for the vote of confidence Fish. However, in line with my philosophy of doing as much work as required -but no more- to follow my investments, I don't think I will be getting down to the level of monthly operational reports.

As soon as Contact releases their interim result it will be historical. Given that the weather never behaves quite as you think in the future, I am not sure of the value of studying historical monthly reports. I prefer to stand back and look at a more overall picture. Contact has plenty of generation options. Short term an el niño dry summer would suit Contact fine. However with North Island storage at 116% of the mean as at 28th January (latest Contact monthly report), it looks like the previously expected cash pay off for Contact from running their combined cycle power station as a top up over winter could be limited.

Longer term, if the Rankine units are not retired by Genesis in a couple of years after all, that will create more thermal competition for Contact in the North Island. Both of these I believe are factors contributing to Contact share price weakness of late. Despite this though, I think the overall outlook for Contact going forwards is sound. I am annoyed to be -slightly- under water in capital terms on my purchases. But am happy to ride things out and soak up those dividends.

SNOOPY

[sb9]

Good points there Snoopy.

Looks like market has become bit indifferent to this puppy. Thought $4.50 is the bottom, however it may go lower by the looks.

I kinda puzzled by their buy-back programme with reference to xafalcon's point in post 1132 above, why would they not buy more at these lower levels unless there is any legal clause which prohibits them buying certain time before the results are due to be announced.

[xafalcon]

As the buy-back was notified some time ago, the fate of the shares being bought-back is cancellation (not investment), and there is no obligation for any shareholder to sell at a discount to the market, I can not see any reason why there would be any impediment to continuing the buy-back program

[nextbigthing]

Still appears to be in a solid downtrend. Could be worth looking into when it turns. Disc not holding but watching!
CEN.jpg

[Sideshow Bob]

Looks like trading at the lowest price since October 2003! Eee Owwwh!

Disc: not a holder since selling out at $8+ in about 2008. One of my better calls.

[Rew]

Looks like trading at the lowest price since October 2003! Eee Owwwh!

Disc: not a holder since selling out at $8+ in about 2008. One of my better calls.

So everyone selling now are losing.... Why keep selling?

[Mickey]

So everyone selling now are losing.... Why keep selling?

That's what makes the market what it is Rew. Fear creates losses for some and bargains for others. I see CEN as an investor share rather than a trading share. The December '15 report didn't look too bad in my opinion. Sure, they've lost some market share to rival companies but customer churn is always going to be a facet of this industry - similar to Telcos. Overall, I still see this as a solid long term investment backed by a great dividend track record. I'll most likely add some more once the SP has found a support level.