Contact Energy - CEN Chart

[fish]

[QUOTE=sideline;673602]over $1000 in some SI places.

Now the NI is feeling the cold-currently had to look twice at the $100,000 prices

[stoploss]

[QUOTE=fish;673631]

over $1000 in some SI places.

Now the NI is feeling the cold-currently had to look twice at the $100,000 prices

Flick electric was 105.6 cents a unit before 8 this evening , that's got to be hurting the customers .

[fish]

[QUOTE=stoploss;673633]

Flick electric was 105.6 cents a unit before 8 this evening , that's got to be hurting the customers .

If those customers were awake to the market it would seem sensible to swap to a gentailer rather than risk these prices being sustained for weeks or months

[Dassets]

Wholesale looks like it is heading over $600 today for sustained periods. Yesterday it appears the hydro guys were instructed to intervene in both NI and SI at 1730 thru to 1930. The thermal guys were tapped out. Today likely to be similar. Next week going to be difficult. Very interesting. IMO shows the gentailer model doesn't work and has been a disincentive to new generation built. Basically the wholesale price has been too low but they haven't cared because the retail side of the business picked up the margin. Now we don't have new generation and can't for a while.

The gentailers should be broken up, splitting retail and generation. That would allow merchant generators to enter the market and allow capital markets to provide capital in that space.

[stoploss]

[QUOTE=fish;673634]

If those customers were awake to the market it would seem sensible to swap to a gentailer rather than risk these prices being sustained for weeks or months

My problem is I work as a volunteer budget adviser . " client " obviously believes the sales pitch - in the long term you will be better off. However the bill shock over the next two months If it stays like this will mean they can't pay . So I need to be able to illustrate in very simplistic terms why an immediate switch should occur .

[fish]

[QUOTE=stoploss;673670]

My problem is I work as a volunteer budget adviser . " client " obviously believes the sales pitch - in the long term you will be better off. However the bill shock over the next two months If it stays like this will mean they can't pay . So I need to be able to illustrate in very simplistic terms why an immediate switch should occur .

I see this kind of thing as well-in a different capacity.In a way being with a gentailer is like buying insurance-you know whatever disasters/weather changes etc you will get your electricity at a known price.Buying at wholesale prices plus a fee means you are vulnerable just when you need electricity for your health.Cold ,wet house and the stress of unknown prices is not good for health

[Jantar]

[QUOTE=stoploss;673670]

My problem is I work as a volunteer budget adviser . " client " obviously believes the sales pitch - in the long term you will be better off. However the bill shock over the next two months If it stays like this will mean they can't pay . So I need to be able to illustrate in very simplistic terms why an immediate switch should occur .

Anyone who is on a fixed income and cannot easily vary their electricity usage should never be on a wholesale plan. They do need a degree of certainty about how much their power bill will be, and for that they need a gentailer or a retailer who is closely affiliated to a gentailer.

Flick's salespitch that " in the long term you will be better off" is quite correct if the customer banks the savings in the low cost periods to be able to manage these spikes when they happen. I see some Flick customers saying that these spikes have never happened before. However they have: 2008, 2003, 2001, 1996.

[Raz]

Well become a well informed budget advisor..there is no lock in....alternatives are clear to see.

Flicks real problems is people "flicking" from flick to other low cost options like electric kiwi on a seasonal basis...when we changed they really spinned out the change over..suspect they are grabbing as much revenue they can for as long as possible or the number of people changing overwhelmed their admin. It would be a shame if they failed because their clients are price takers and will go for the lowest option...We will be back in summer all things going as one would expect with the weather...

[stoploss]

Well become a well informed budget advisor..there is no lock in....alternatives are clear to see.

Flicks real problems is people "flicking" from flick to other low cost options like electric kiwi on a seasonal basis...when we changed they really spinned out the change over..suspect they are grabbing as much revenue they can for as long as possible or the number of people changing overwhelmed their admin. It would be a shame if they failed because their clients are price takers and will go for the lowest option...We will be back in summer all things going as one would expect with the weather...

Thanks Raz, I am aware they can leave at any time and can see the alternatives , it is making someone else see the alternative and point out they could get hammered with high pricing for longer than a coupe of weeks .
Only providing advice and cannot tell anyone what to do , so it is a matter of showing the likely outcome . I can see them coming back in a couple of months for a Kiwisaver hardship withdrawal to square up the electricity account .......

[fish]

I have CEN and GNE. I don't know what's a cheap buy and what isn't. I find these daily reports below fascinating, however. Genesis seems to be doing an extraordinary amount of heavy lifting at the moment. On some days Huntly alone is out producing, for example, the combined production of Manapouri (Meridian), Clyde (Contact) and all the windpower produced in New Zealand (what a shame NZ didn't set up a couple more thermal plants, they're cheap as chips to build and our overall electricity prices would be substantially lower).

Anyway, I don't know what this means for Contact or Genesis but I guess someone is buying a lot of production from Genesis. As a buy and hold investor none of this influences my position and I don't have any understanding (or am trying to get a serious understanding) of what this means in any meaningful sense. It just makes interesting reading and is fun to look at.

https://www.energylink.co.nz/sites/d...05_Interim.pdf

https://www.energylink.co.nz/

Today is just another day in thermal generation heaven. The Rankine units are still running 24/7; electricity is still being sent south; wind is making next to no contribution.

Thanks for those great links
After watching them since your posting it appears that renewables are generating twice that of thermal.
Mercury should be doing really well as the waikato is the main generator.
SI prices are much higher than NI so I wonder since most CEN customers are in the NI can they sell their hydro in the SI when spot prices are high-and they are still above minimum levels as far as I can tell-and buy NI electricity at lower prices for there NI customers?