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21-01-2009, 03:43 PM
#151
LAtest analyst report.
They have to spend the billions on the geothermal development program. This cost will be around $1.5-2.0 billion. I am thinking they may have to look at div cut to finance additional debt and profit downgrade?
Last edited by Dr_Who; 21-01-2009 at 03:44 PM.
Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt – either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.
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21-01-2009, 04:20 PM
#152
 Originally Posted by Dr_Who
LAtest analyst report.
They have to spend the billions on the geothermal development program. This cost will be around $1.5-2.0 billion. I am thinking they may have to look at div cut to finance additional debt and profit downgrade?
Macquarie Equities' latest estimate for expenditure on their geothermal development program has increased by 10% from the previous $1.6b so that puts the all-up cost into that range. However, I read this as including expenditure already made on Te Mihi and Tauhara fields. At last Annual Report,CEN talked about investing "$1.2b to develop approx 500 mw of new geothermal generation in the Taupo region over the next five years. ( My emphasis).
I agree though that some reduction in div looks likely from last year's 28cps - a 70% payout ratio.
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23-02-2009, 11:09 AM
#153
Now this is entirely speculative but CEN's SP hit another 52 week low this morning at $6-08, over $4 below its 52 week high.
Obviously a lot of stocks are at 52 week lows but wouldn't it be a great time for Origin to have another go at a takeover, or perhaps they've given up on that idea?
Disc; Holding a few, mainly as a hedge against power prices.
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23-02-2009, 11:24 AM
#154
Originally Posted by macduffy
Now this is entirely speculative but CEN's SP hit another 52 week low this morning at $6-08, over $4 below its 52 week high.
Obviously a lot of stocks are at 52 week lows but wouldn't it be a great time for Origin to have another go at a takeover, or perhaps they've given up on that idea?
Disc; Holding a few, mainly as a hedge against power prices.
This talk of a T/O has been going round for over 2 years now. I dont think Origin wants to hold CEN with its new owner on board. They may sell it and the possible buyer may wanna takeout CEN, but at what price, no one knows.
Macduffy, want price do one put on CEN as a possible T/O target?
Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt – either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.
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23-02-2009, 12:20 PM
#155
Originally Posted by Dr_Who
This talk of a T/O has been going round for over 2 years now. I dont think Origin wants to hold CEN with its new owner on board. They may sell it and the possible buyer may wanna takeout CEN, but at what price, no one knows.
Macduffy, want price do one put on CEN as a possible T/O target?
Hi doc.
Not sure who this "new owner" is?
The BG offer lapsed back around September and I wasn't aware that anyone else was showing interest. The Origin SP doesn't seem to reflect takeover speculation.
As far as takeover of CEN is concerned its been more than "talk". Origin have made at least 2 attempts, from memory!
No idea what price would be offered but one would think that conditions would never be better from Origin's point of view. Otherwise, we're all in deeper trouble than I care to contemplate!
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24-02-2009, 10:16 PM
#156
Member
Well there was one bright light in the gloom today. I see Tim Saunders is resigning from the CEN board. The headline at Business Day says "Good riddance Tim"
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25-02-2009, 07:55 AM
#157
Originally Posted by QOH
Well there was one bright light in the gloom today. I see Tim Saunders is resigning from the CEN board. The headline at Business Day says "Good riddance Tim"
Half of the board should go also.
Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt – either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.
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25-02-2009, 08:52 AM
#158
chart looks pretty sick too... i guess thats nothing new really these days. Support levels below here look far away.
Only thing good to be said in the face of all those dark candles is that the RSI is looking very oversold and hasnt reached a new low unlike the share price (hence divergence) but if one was considering buying one should wait for RSI to turn back above -30 line. Another bad day or two could cause RSI to negate that signal.
Theres a 300m bond offer out today aimed at public. Unsecured, unsubordinated, fixed interest bonds.
As has been discussed corporate bonds are hot! lol.
Last edited by peat; 25-02-2009 at 08:54 AM.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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25-02-2009, 02:47 PM
#159
Member
Half of the board should go also.
No way. Those that aren't Origin people are Origin stooges.
A further t/o offer is inevitable, IMO, once Origin have driven the price down even further.
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25-02-2009, 06:08 PM
#160
Member
Originally Posted by Lawso
No way. Those that aren't Origin people are Origin stooges.
A further t/o offer is inevitable, IMO, once Origin have driven the price down even further.
agree wholeheartedly...its the long game I think with current crisis perfect to depress the s/p and complete the original t/o plan at a discount.A PRG 'freeze out'...omg ..look what happened to PRG!
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