Contact Energy - CEN Chart

[Snoopy]

rumours another pot at tiwai being readied to re-open in september

What is the source of your 'rumour' fish?

At first glance your rumour seems preposterous. After all, Tiwai has announced they are going. They have even given a shut down date. It would seem inconceivable that they would suddenly plan to ramp up production. So I have looked into this a bit more closely.

1/ On July 9th 2020 the closure of Tiwai Point by August 2021 was announced. This isn't the start of when the production facilities are being turned off. It is the end point. So if they need a couple of months to shut down, you would have to think there will be no more production by the end of May 2021. Planning for this would have to start from about now, and at the latest by the beginning of December 2020.

2/ The shut down decision would have been made in the month before July 9th, at the June board meeting of Rio Tinto. Here is a link to the graph of world spot aluminium market prices over that period.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...aluminum-price

A Covid-19 price slump is very evident. But there has been a sharp recovery since from less than $US1500/tonne to nearly $US1750/tonne, bouncing back to where we were in February 2020. A decision on the fate of Tiwai had been expected about this time, but was seemingly delayed. From this we can deduce that at $US1750/tonne, the closure of Tiwai was not a certainty.

3/ Jacinda Ardern reopened potline number 4 in December 2018. At that time this commodity had built a base price around $US2,000/tonne. Even with the post Covid-19 recovery, we are somewhat short of that.

4/ If the announced closure is actually a 'super hard ball' play by Rio management, and they are hoping for even more power concessions, what signal would opening up another pot line now under current power pricing arrangements give?

My conclusion is that there will be no opening of an additional potline. The price recovery of Aluminium isn't enough. And to do so would destroy Rio's long term negotiating power on electricity prices. Instead the jump in the Contact share price is in anticipation of the Contact results being announced on Monday. A rise in the share price towards 'result announcement day' when a share price has been beaten down in the months before is normal share price behaviour. Shareholders looking for some good news after a rough ride.

SNOOPY

[iceman]

I saw a news article somewhere a couple of days ago, saying contractors are being told work is coming to restart another pot line. Probably the same as fish was referring to. Unfortunately I can't remember where I saw it and can't find it at the moment

[iceman]

Here it is but need for subscription to read it. This the first paragraph in the article:

"Less than a month after signalling that it could close the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter, there are signs the owner may be preparing to restart a potline which was closed during lockdown."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12354093

[see weed]

Any predictions on div next month.....14c ,17c, 20c or 23c or non cents.

[sb9]

Any predictions on div next month.....14c ,17c, 20c or 23c or non cents.

No need to wait for that long, you'll be in the know by as early as Monday. For past 3 years, FY divvy was 15c, 19c, and 23c, my pick is it'll be about 25c or so for current period.

[dreamcatcher]

@Bull........ Both CEN & MEL starting to look like Gold

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...urs-swirl.html

[fish]

[QUOTE=Snoopy;834469]What is the source of your 'rumour' fish?

Business desk yesterday-
Meridian has been in talks with smelter owner Rio Tinto to try to extend the scheduled closure of the aluminium smelter beyond August next year and allow for a more orderly exit of the country’s biggest electricity consumer. Today, media reported smelter staff had said the fourth potline would be operating in September potentially exciting investors who saw it as a signal the smelter may remain open.

I was sceptical about it and only posted it as a comment after 5pm in response to the previous post.
I cannot post the whole link as it is behind a paywall and would be removed if I tried

[see weed]

No need to wait for that long, you'll be in the know by as early as Monday. For past 3 years, FY divvy was 15c, 19c, and 23c, my pick is it'll be about 25c or so for current period.

I be happy with anything 15c or above. 25c and I would be over the moon. Yld still above 6% at 6.21.

[Jaa]

I was sceptical about it and only posted it as a comment after 5pm in response to the previous post.
I cannot post the whole link as it is behind a paywall and would be removed if I tried

What is wrong with posting paywalled articles? Please post them as some people will have the subscription. The subscription price is likely a good investment for any remotely serious investor. We all benefit from a strong media holding corporate power accountable.

[sb9]

Giving back most of gains of y'day, bit of sucker rally by the looks...