sharetrader
Page 2 of 93 FirstFirst 1234561252 ... LastLast
Results 21 to 40 of 1851
  1. #21
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    259

    Default

    Didymo already in the Clutha system. It seems that most river systems and lakes will be affected. Would hydropower generation be affected. The implications are enormous and far reaching. NZ freshwater fisheries may be wiped out. Whilst still on biosecurity, the marine farming scene is also under threat from another algae entity.
    Interesting to hear comments

  2. #22
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    2,059

    Default

    CEN has been looking weak for about 3 months now and dropped 1.2% today to close at $7.28. This is below the long-term trendline that had held for 3 years.
    The chart below shows 6 indicators, only one of which has given a "Sell" signal as yet.

  3. #23
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,447

    Default

    A possible bear trap??

    Personally, I do not think so. TPW below 100-day MA as well.

    S&P 500 closing below primary support @1200. ASX supported @4400 but for how long??




  4. #24
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Fukuoka, , Japan.
    Posts
    732

    Default

    Gas prices expected to flatten Contact profit growth

    12.10.05 1.00pm


    Contact Energy expects earnings growth to flatten off this financial year, chairman Grant King told shareholders today.

    Higher gas costs would be a major challenge for the company over the next three to four years, he told the annual meeting in Auckland.

    "While wholesale electricity prices are likely to continue to rise over this period, it is not expected that these prices will keep pace with the increase in Contact's fuel costs, and there will be significant pressure on the company's trading margins," Mr King said.

    "In response to these pressures, Contact will be putting an increased emphasis on measures to optimise revenue and make efficiency gains across the business."

    Mr King said Contact would identify and secure new development opportunities, to ensure the company captures its share of market growth.

    Contact maintained a strong balance sheet to take advantage of these opportunities.

    New chief executive David Hunt said new thermal fuel sources -- whether domestic or imported -- would be more expensive than Maui gas.

    The effect of this was already being felt in higher electricity and gas prices.

    "We are now well and truly in the post-Maui era," he said.

    "A key area of focus will be striking the appropriate balance between cost containment, margin management, and investment in the business.

    "Significant competition in the generation market is emerging as energy companies bring previously uneconomic generation options to market."

    Mr Hunt said development of Contact's Otahuhu-C site would help security of supply to the Auckland region.

    "Otahuhu-C is the logical next major thermal station for New Zealand. Equally importantly, it is already consented," he said.

    Contact recorded an annual profit of $138 million in the year to June 30, which because of a change in balance date covered a nine-month period and compared with a $100.6 million profit for the previous corresponding period.

    - NZPA
    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

    The information you have is not the information you want.
    The information you want is not the information you need.
    The information you need is not the information you can obtain.
    The informaton you can obtain costs more than you want to pay.

  5. #25
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    2,431

    Default

    CEN, have had a great run. Correction time looming, the share price will go side ways in my opinion. Investors dont like to listen to increased costs of production due to increased gas prices etc etc. TPW sp has stalled in sympathy but i expect in the end will benefit from cen being forced to raise prices to meet higher production costs. I think the smart money will get out of cen, and look for a new home. Great company great run but nothing lasts forever. macdunk
    PS had cen in the past sold to quick

  6. #26
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Christchurch, , France.
    Posts
    1,366

    Default

    According to analysts in the paper this morning the new CEO David Hunt did not actually say anything new. He is warning of something, that other things being equal, would have an unfavourable effect "within 4 years".
    Why then, the panic?
    Why indeed, did he (David Hunt) say this?
    The answer is - He's making like a politician.
    He's just taken over from Steve Barrett who was also making like a politician more than a CEO in the months before his departure.
    When Labour replaces National, or National replaces Labour, what is their first act?
    To attempt to put on record how bad, how desperate, the economic and social situation is when they took over.
    For National/Labour read Steve Barrett/David Hunt or vice versa. Then when David Hunt's contract comes up for renewal he can point out that Contact was on the brink of bankruptcy when he took over in October 2005 but now he has a positive cashflow and everything is ticking over nicely. Vote for David Hunt and a renewal of his CEO contract. He's so much better than that horrid, foreign, useless Steve Barrett who got everything wrong. You have to be a moron like the average NZ voter to swallow this nonsense. Its disturbing that so many NZ investors swallowed the same nonsense yesterday.
    As for me, I'm more interested in what the numbers show in the next quarterly CEN report "to be released by the end of October" than I am in David Hunt's personal propaganda show. With that sort of tired old start I hope his CEO contract doesn't get renewed. I doubt whether his ultimate masters in Origin Energy will be too impressed with how he's concentrated on talking down the CEN shareprice as his first priority as CEO.

  7. #27
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    , Auckland , New Zealand.
    Posts
    390

    Default

    An amusing fairy story, MvT. There is one flaw in this product of the Major's fevered imagination (quote: "I doubt whether his ultimate masters in Origin Energy will be too impressed with how he's concentrated on talking down the CEN share price as his first priority as CEO" etc). The warnings about rising costs, reduced margins and gas supplies came equally from Hunt and chairman King.

    King is also m.d. of Origin Energy, where Hunt worked before his recent appointment. The two obviously spoke in concert, with the OE board doubtless calling the shots. The market duly reacted as expected.

    Could it be an attempt to soften up the market - those shareholders whose interests directors are legally bound to promote - before a move by the Oz-dominant board to seek the 49% of CEN that OE does not already own[?]

  8. #28
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2002
    Location
    ChCh, , .
    Posts
    1,088

    Default

    Lawso....me thinks your on to it....as we have seen before (TRH-TOLL) the aussses (bless them) have usually managed to end up on the positive side (or at least try to) of the ledger when they get any exposure to a NZ company.With CEN talk the company down...blah blah...come in with an offer around $6 and tell us what a great deal they are offering....

    Hold CEN and always intend to.

  9. #29
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,447

    Default

    Lawso:

    Could it be an attempt to soften up the market - those shareholders whose interests directors are legally bound to promote - before a move by the Oz-dominant board to seek the 49% of CEN that OE does not already own

    I guess that would be a too obvious and blunt strategy. I think it is more a reality statement about things to come for Contact...like

    ...forget about Contact as CashCow producing ever increasing profits

    ...listen, we are post Maui and we need to do a lot of things which will cost mega-dollars

    ...we are going to shape Contact more to the image of Origin which placed itself in the competitive rather than the regulated electricity market

    As a consequence I would assume, shareholders would need a greater appetite for risk and maybe the 'Old Guard' does not like the fact...fair enough but nevertheless...

    Kind regards

  10. #30
    Junior Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    1

    Default

    The talk about rising gas prices was known at least a year ago. Origin knew what the score was on gas prices before they bought in. Consumers will be the ones to pay for increasing tarrifs and shareholders to take the cream.
    If loving you is wrong, I don\'t want to be right

  11. #31
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Wandering Free
    Posts
    816

    Default

    quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

    CEN bounced off the long term trend line when it hit a low of $7.30 last week and broke the short term down trend line the following day.
    As it put on a few cents yesterday hopefully (for I have bought some) it will continue the long term uptrend for some time to come.
    Oh well! Although I am still in and a little way off being stopped out
    I am not impressed!
    om mani peme hum

  12. #32
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Christchurch, , France.
    Posts
    1,366

    Default

    A curious thing to me is that/was that the day CEN had its main big drop the price of its parent Origin Energy in Australia didn't change at all despite the Australian market going down overall and despite the Press reflecting news from Australia in a tiny article top left of a business page that not only was CEN getting savaged by bad publicity from its new CEO but the Origin Bass Strait oil/gas was running out rapidly.
    How come Origin is supported while its smaller subsidiary isn't?
    Tends to lend credence to the theory that Origin is not averse to trashing CEN's price so it can get the other 49% cheaply.
    The other curious thing is why concentrate so hard on what will happen "within 4 years" at the expense of the near future?
    What about the next 2 years of financial data some of which has passed without the data yet coming out. I don't invest on the basis of things that will happen in 3 to 4 years - who does? Cash flow time preference discounting assigns less importance to 3 to 4 years out than it does to the near future. Did David Hunt learn a different sort of time preference where the medium distant future is more important than today tomorrow?
    If he's talking about the CEN quarterly result coming out "by the end of October" then don't the NZX listing rules oblige him to give a clear profit warning?
    Mr. Hunt needs to clarify the situation and who he is actually working for. Maybe the NZX need to run a query on CEN?

  13. #33
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Fukuoka, , Japan.
    Posts
    732

    Default

    Continuous disclosure

    16.10.05


    It wasn't quite a profit warning, but Contact Energy shareholders were this week cautioned that the past few years of soaring profit growth may be over. And so the share price of one of New Zealand's most popular listed companies started moving downhill.

    Contact is moving into a tougher business scene, largely because of the higher cost of natural gas, which the energy company uses to fire its power stations. Cheap Maui gas is running down, so its stations will soon be powered with gas from smaller, more expensive fields.

    Contact is also talking up the prospects of importing gas in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

    With a market capitalisation of more than $4 billion, Contact is the second-biggest company listed on the NZX. Privatised in 1999, it is one of New Zealand's most widely held stocks, with 95,000 shareholders.

    New chief executive David Hunt took over this month, replacing Steve Barrett, who was a representative of former 51 per cent shareholder Edison Mission. Edison sold its stake in Contact last year to Australian energy giant Origin.

    Since Contact is looking for new supplies of gas, Origin may not be such a bad owner to have, since it is heavily involved in the "upstream" oil and gas exploration and production sector.

    Company chairman Grant King told shareholders at the annual meeting in Auckland on Wednesday that performance over recent years had been marked by strong earnings growth thanks to rising energy prices. "Contact expects this dynamic to support continued earnings growth this financial year, albeit with some flattening off in momentum," he said.

    Contact shares hit a high of $8 each in early July, rising from a six-month low of $6.81 in May.

    The company's dampening-down of shareholder expectations at the Auckland meeting sent its share price down 9c.

    The next day things weren't much better, with the price declining again - this time 26c. Yesterday it recovered 14c to $7.16.

    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

    The information you have is not the information you want.
    The information you want is not the information you need.
    The information you need is not the information you can obtain.
    The informaton you can obtain costs more than you want to pay.

  14. #34
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    , Auckland , New Zealand.
    Posts
    390

    Default

    Interesting article, rmb. But it would be helpful if you named the source. Was it in one of the weekend papers or 'orl yer own wurk'?

  15. #35
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Fukuoka, , Japan.
    Posts
    732

    Default

    "Continuous disclosure" is a name the Herald adds to some of it's business articles.
    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

    The information you have is not the information you want.
    The information you want is not the information you need.
    The information you need is not the information you can obtain.
    The informaton you can obtain costs more than you want to pay.

  16. #36
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Christchurch, , France.
    Posts
    1,366

    Default

    Just had a notice of price increase from my CEN owned power supplier. It's intentionally dense and very difficult to penetrate but after comparing with a past document it seems that they've put up one rate by 8% and another by 2%. And then they sold something yesterday for a few mill. Can't be all bad.
    Reminds me of an old cartoon of Sir James Wattie addressing his company's AGM.
    "In the continual and difficult struggle with soaring wage demands, strikes, cost increases and general inflation, government regulation and obstruction, I have to report that we have again overlapped a little and will be raising dividend again this year."

  17. #37
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    2,059

    Default

    Chart update.

  18. #38
    Muppet Placebo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Lower Hutt, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    481

    Default

    Crikey! Back to where it was a year ago.

    Thanks Phaedrus.
    Marriage isn't a word. It's a sentence

  19. #39
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    1,587

    Default

    do charts predict the bottom?

  20. #40
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    2,059

    Default

    No. What they can do though is show us when the downtrend begins to weaken and when it ends. That's all you need to know - there is no need for predictions.

    "Technical analysis is the study of past market behaviour to determine the current state or condition of the market" Rotella 1992.

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •