Contact Energy - CEN Chart

[RGR367]

How many are taking up the offer? I am considering it.

Participating at 7 bucks or lower for maximum allocation.


disc: IPO holder since then

[see weed]

Don't forget that if the SP goes below $7, so will the issue price - to some degree.

I'm adding a few.

So lower the sp between now and Friday 5/3/21 the better, and lower sp for the offer. Then those new shares can then be traded on market from Friday 12/3/21. Anyone have any predictions what they think sp will do from Mon 8/3/21 to Thursday 11/3/21? And any sp predictions for Friday 12/3/21 taking into account that is also ex div day? I do have a prediction but would like to hear others thoughts first.

[Entrep]

How come this pump through the end of 2019? The Oct 2020 is obviously easier to explain. Just trying to assess where the price might be were it not for COVID and everything else. Never really established a base over $6 until late 2019.

[dibble]

So lower the sp between now and Friday 5/3/21 the better, and lower sp for the offer. Then those new shares can then be traded on market from Friday 12/3/21. Anyone have any predictions what they think sp will do from Mon 8/3/21 to Thursday 11/3/21? And any sp predictions for Friday 12/3/21 taking into account that is also ex div day? I do have a prediction but would like to hear others thoughts first.

Last 12 months taught us we usually get a better price just before and/or just after strike date...maybe that opportunity was last week... given the average (for the price set) is volume weighted perhaps larger buying volume from now to friday at above $7 will be evident. Not suggesting manipulation, heaven forbid. Would this be followed by a wee sell off next week? Either way not sure I'd rate this opportunity an absolute steal for those looking to just accumulate.

[Snoopy]

Participating at 7 bucks or lower for maximum allocation.

disc: IPO holder since then

I am following your example RGR367. Despite getting a better deal than the institutions, I don't believe this offer will be an out of the ball park hit for small shareholders. In the medium term, I am expecting downward pressure on the CEN share price because of rising interest rates. Ten year rates at 2.5% within a couple of years I think is likely. But to an extent my own modelling takes this into account (my base investment case is for a 4.5% gross dividend yield).

What finally swung me over the line was the vision beyond the new Tauhara station. The effective rebuilding of the Wairakei with 167MW 'Geofuture' project, and the obvious careful attention to the cost effectiveness of each project in relation to competitor's developments (Capital Raise Presentation, slide 10). 'Geofuture' is not specifically labelled on that chart. But I am pretty sure it is the next geothermal 'cab off the rank' once the three competitors wind projects are built. Neither 'Geofuture', nor the benefit of the mooted North Island battery project are part of the forecast EBITDA lift from Tanhara alone.

The development pipeline is based around a geothermal field Contact know well and they have the in house team to carry out such projects when and if required. So I think execution risk is low.

I talked to my contact at Jarden's during the week who was very cagey. They are involved in the offer and so are under a blackout period for personal customer advice. However, I was told that prior to the offer proposal and investment window opening, Contact was their preferred investment in the gentailer sector.

Taking everything into account, including the somewhat unappealing alternative of a 1% term deposit, I think there are enough reasons to give this offer a good go.

SNOOPY

[Waltzing]

Detective Inspector Snoop "Ten year rates at 2.5"

the FED maybe stuck between a 1.9 T stimulus and higher employment but they have signalled that they want to keep the long end down. If inflation doesnt run hot look for them to try to sit on the long end in the next 12 to 24 months. They can sell the short end and buy the long end of the curve.

[Snoopy]

Detective Inspector Snoop "Ten year rates at 2.5"

the FED maybe stuck between a 1.9 T stimulus and higher employment but they have signalled that they want to keep the long end down. If inflation doesnt run hot look for them to try to sit on the long end in the next 12 to 24 months. They can sell the short end and buy the long end of the curve.

Just to be clear Waltzingman, I was talking about New Zealand 10 year government bond rates (currently 1.809%) not US 10 year bond rates (currently 1.467%) as I write this

Reference http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/...land/10-years/

I am expecting the relative outperformance of the NZ economy will see interest rates continue to rise faster than the US here.

SNOOPY

[RGR367]

I am following your example RGR367. Despite getting a better deal than the institutions, I don't believe this offer will be an out of the ball park hit for small shareholders. In the medium term, I am expecting downward pressure on the CEN share price because of rising interest rates. Ten year rates at 2.5% within a couple of years I think is likely. But to an extent my own modelling takes this into account (my base investment case is for a 4.5% gross dividend yield).
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SNOOPY

Yeah we should. And so within 10 years, hopefully shorter, this stock of mine will go back once again as being book value negative.

[HKG2301]

Will wait to see how the SP fares this week...

OK, the 'volume weighted average market price' for the week to date looks to be in the region of $7.05 - which is, coincidentally, the actual price as I type. Which would make the offer price $6.87-ish.

I actually bought CEN cheaper than that last week (at $6.78) but it seems to have formed a base here so, churlish to refuse.

Stocking up for the long haul...

[tango]

I'm on the fence. My current base cost is $6 so this increases the cost basis
I'm also wondering if we are due a market correction that could push the whole sharemarket down. 24 hours to ponder...