Contact Energy - CEN Chart

[glennj]

Well, I received 100% of the $10,000 asked for - 1483 shares. Mind you, I hold in excess of 10,000 shares. Shame I didn't have more spare cash.

It appears as if my application has been scaled as I have been allocated about 88% of the shares the money taken from my account could have bought at the strike price. The refund due has not hit the bank yet but I see they are undertaking to do this within 5 working days of the offer allocation. I'm happy enough having secured more than enough shares to stop my holding being diluted.

[Southern Lad]

The refund due has not hit the bank yet but I see they are undertaking to do this within 5 working days of the offer allocation.

Email notification from Contact late yesterday states that surplus application amounts will be direct credited on 16 March (Tuesday) to bank account details held by Link Market Services.

[Snoopy]

OTOH the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter is likely on a three year wind down closing path. The power market is consequently in a state of flux as whether an energy intensive replacement industry like hydrogen fuel production, will arrive.

Contact and Meridian are behind a study to look at manufacturing hydrogen in the deep south.

https://contact.co.nz/aboutus/media-...r-south-island

And now Contact is looking to track test hydrogen powered vehicles

https://www.velocitynews.co.nz/a-che...laren-raceway/

"TMP is on better terms with a relative behemoth of the listed company world, Contact Energy, which is talking about using the facility as a testing ground for hydrogen-powered vehicles."

"Contact is building a pilot hydrogen production plant in partnership with Obayashi, a Japanese industrial conglomerate, to test the economics of making so-called ‘green’ hydrogen using geothermal energy from the nearby Tauhara steamfield."

I guess it is all small scale, so it wouldn't have to be notifiable to the NZX. But I didn't know Contact were already building their own plant for hydrogen fuel production.

SNOOPY

[turnip]

"Contact is building a pilot hydrogen production plant in partnership with Obayashi, a Japanese industrial conglomerate, to test the economics of making so-called ‘green’ hydrogen using geothermal energy from the nearby Tauhara steamfield."

Using geothermal energy for hydrogen production is interesting. The electrolysis process is more efficient at higher temeratures -- the higher the better but even 100C is useful -- so the project could make good use of the residual heat in the geothermal fluid.

[Snoopy]

We got 69% of what we applied for. Or 15.34% of holding.

It was the percentage of what you had before that determined what you got, I got 15.3% of my previous holding as well. My 'average buy price' has now blown out to $5.07 :-(. Still at $6.74 for the latest tranche (that is 26cps less than the big boys paid) I can't complain. Except, the market seems to be moving down today. The price has got to as low as $6.77 as I write this (admittedly buying in today at this price no longer qualifies you for the 14cps March 31st dividend, the ex date being 15th March). Is this the much touted dumping before the end of the month by that crazy US based ESG fund that bought in at crazy prices earlier in the year coming to fruition?

SNOOPY

[Lego_Man]

Latest S&P release has MEL and CEN only around 1% of the new index. Implementation is in April.

[Snoopy]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...135/341087.pdf

Only just got round to reading the SPH notice from Vanguard (above) which lists the "transactions and events giving rise to ceasing of substantial holding".

It's from the period 12 Feb (last disclosure) to 23 Feb (this disclosure) and underlines the effect of the recent equity raise dilution:

last disclosure
total number held in class: 36,010,330
total in class: 718,565,905
total percentage held in class: 5.011%

this disclosure (current holding after ceasing to have substantial holding)
total number held in class: 37,063,798
total in class: 764,994,476
total percentage held in class: 4.845%

So even though Vanguard (or, more accurately, Vanguard's clients) has been almost exclusively a buyer throughout the period, adding over a million shares in the space of a fortnight, it has been diluted out of it's 5% 'substantial shareholder' holding.

Watch this space. Lots to happen over the next fortnight, with the effect of the Retail Offer's potential 2.5% discount rocking the SP next week, swiftly followed by CEN going ExD the week after, on 12 Mar.

Ample opportunity to accumulate on the dips.

Latest S&P release has MEL and CEN only around 1% of the new index. Implementation is in April.

At the last disclosure Vanguard held 37,063,798 shares representing 4.845% of all shares held

Subsequent to this the 'small shareholder offer' has resulted in an additional 11,127,594 shares being issued, resulting in a grand total of 776,122,070 Contact shares now being on issue.

That means the Vanguard stake now represents: 37,063,798 / 776,122,070 = 4.776% of all shares held.

The 1% target represents 7,761,220 shares,

So the number of shares that Vanguard needs to sell by 1st April is: 37,063,798 - 7,761,220 = 29,302,578

I think somewhere near 37m CEN shares have been traded since the 23rd February reporting date for the Vanguard stake. Of course not all of those shares sold will be Vanguard shares. if we look at trading market spikes as evidence of Vanguard selling, they may have disposed of around 10m CEN shares so far. So around 20m more to go over the next ten trading days? Potentially that is a big overhang? The recent local bottom is $6.60. Could that be where we are heading?

SNOOPY

[Ohdoyle]

Link to the release ? I am having a hard time finding it.

[Ohdoyle]

At the last disclosure Vanguard held 37,063,798 shares representing 4.845% of all shares held

Subsequent to this the 'small shareholder offer' has resulted in an additional 11,127,594 shares being issued, resulting in a grand total of 776,122,070 Contact shares now being on issue.

That means the Vanguard stake now represents: 37,063,798 / 776,122,070 = 4.776% of all shares held.

The 1% target represents 7,761,220 shares,

So the number of shares that Vanguard needs to sell by 1st April is: 37,063,798 - 7,761,220 = 29,302,578

I think somewhere near 37m CEN shares have been traded since the 23rd February reporting date for the Vanguard stake. Of course not all of those shares sold will be Vanguard shares. if we look at trading market spikes as evidence of Vanguard selling, they may have disposed of around 10m CEN shares so far. So around 20m more to go over the next ten trading days? Potentially that is a big overhang? The recent local bottom is $6.60. Could that be where we are heading?

SNOOPY

I'm assuming Lego means roughly 1 percent of the index portfolios. That will translate to more than 1 percent of the companies roughly. Although probably not quite 2 percent. So still plenty to sell.

[Ohdoyle]

At the last disclosure Vanguard held 37,063,798 shares representing 4.845% of all shares held

Subsequent to this the 'small shareholder offer' has resulted in an additional 11,127,594 shares being issued, resulting in a grand total of 776,122,070 Contact shares now being on issue.

That means the Vanguard stake now represents: 37,063,798 / 776,122,070 = 4.776% of all shares held.

The 1% target represents 7,761,220 shares,

So the number of shares that Vanguard needs to sell by 1st April is: 37,063,798 - 7,761,220 = 29,302,578

I think somewhere near 37m CEN shares have been traded since the 23rd February reporting date for the Vanguard stake. Of course not all of those shares sold will be Vanguard shares. if we look at trading market spikes as evidence of Vanguard selling, they may have disposed of around 10m CEN shares so far. So around 20m more to go over the next ten trading days? Potentially that is a big overhang? The recent local bottom is $6.60. Could that be where we are heading?

SNOOPY

I'm assuming Lego means roughly 1 percent of the index portfolios. That will translate to more than 1 percent of the companies roughly. Although probably not quite 2 percent. So still plenty to sell.