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  1. #41
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    thx phaedrus-your chart is clear and now is not the time to buy whilst they are on a steep downtrend .

  2. #42
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    ...cen approaching key-support @575

    ...set your cen trading strategy

    Indicators:

    DMI40
    W%R150


    <center></center>

  3. #43
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    Chart update. CEN has now broken below its long-term trendline, confirming the medium-term trendline break "Sell" signal posted on 12/10/2005. (Medium-term trendlines are shown in magenta)


  4. #44
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    PHAEDRUS, My time line system is in total agreement. If you take the starting price at $2-20 as the starting point at the jan 2000 year then draw a 20pc time line in advance look at all the trouble you would save yourself.
    Lets have a bit of fun in hindesight and compare. 2001 = $2.64,
    2002 = $3.16, 2003 = $3.79, 2004 = $4.54, 2005 = $5.44, 2006 = $6.52,
    Jan 2007 I require the sp to be $7,82 less what ever level i placed my stop loss. I would be holding with it on close watch at this moment in a long term portfolio. It has been a great share to hold long term i chose TPW to best it in this sector, which is proving so far to be the better choice from when i bought in oct 2004 at an average $4.84. macdunk

  5. #45
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    Ah yes Duncan, but there is a big difference.
    I posted my Sell signal way back when it was triggered.
    You are only just now telling us about yours!

  6. #46
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    quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

    Ah yes Duncan, but there is a big difference.
    I posted my Sell signal way back when it was triggered.
    You are only just now telling us about yours!
    PHAEDRUS, My one has not triggered so far but it is close.
    Draw the line at jan 2006 at$6.52 to jan 2007 at $7.82 then allow with a long term hold like this a 10pc stop loss. I am not saying i am right or wrong i dont hold this share but that would be my sell point. I think that a close to seven year hold at 20pc plus dividends deserves a bit of leeway with a 10pc stop loss. If your system says sell, then sell, my system says hold on close watch. What i found interesting is the closeness of the sell point after six and a half years. macdunk

    macdunk

  7. #47
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    "My time line system is in total agreement"
    Well, no it's not, actually.

    "If you take the starting price at $2-20 as the starting point at the jan 2000 year then draw a 20pc time line in advance look at all the trouble you would save yourself"
    Well Duncan, you would certainly have saved yourself all the trouble of holding CEN for 6 years! Using the startpoint specified above, you would have sold in 2000!

    "My one has not triggered so far but it is close...... I would be holding with it on close watch at this moment in a long term portfolio".
    No you wouldn't. You would have been flicked out in 2000 - and about ten times since then. The current price is WAY below your "timeline" - even if you totally disregard all previous breaks.

    "It has been a great share to hold long term" It certainly has. Trouble is, with your "timeline" system, you would not have held it long term.

    Duncan, I have said this before, but what you have here is an idea, rather than a system. The whole thing swings from a completely arbitrary start point (Why Jan 2000? Why $6.52?) and runs up at a completely arbitrary slope (Why 20%?) This total lack of precise definition enables you to draw a "timeline" pretty much anywhere you want to.

    It is absurdly easy for you to relocate your timeline to prove/disprove anything you like. All you have to do is shift the start point.


  8. #48
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    PHAEDRUS, Absolute one eyed rubbish. The lengths you go to with all the twisted facts, to prove someone wrong does you no credit. You Miss out the stop loss level to try and prove your arguement why dont you do it again, or be big enough to say you are wrong. You tried the same rubbish with TPW go back to your charts and have another go. In all fairness i would not have bought CEN at that time it was only the point where you started your long term trend. If you look at the chart CEN was on a confirmed downtrend at your start point which i definately would not buy in to. it was only to show you how close our exit signals were from your start time, not mine. I remember the lengths you went to to discredit a time line system it seems you think it steals your thunder, grow tall man dont be petty.
    I do like your charts keep them coming but dont talk rubbish. macdunk

  9. #49
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    quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor about Contact

    Now is a good time to buy. The sp for a moment dropped below TPW sp giving me a real buy signal. The market swings to high some times and to low others with the basic fundamentals unchanged. I was dead right picking trust power over cen at the time, now it looks like cen will join my portfolio. macdunk
    Look Phaedrus you may think you are so clever with your graphs and rigourous approach to buying and selling but all this charting is so yesterday. Look at the brilliant technical analysis of this deluded scotsman, you just can not argue with such an original approach as that.
    Look timelines (tm) are easy and make you millions you just have to know when to ignore them. You forgot the 10pc leeway, and he forgot I raise the line as the price exceeds 20% pa.

    So leave the man alone otherwise he might post again and no one wants that, do we?

    Disc: All in fun and sarcasm
    om mani peme hum

  10. #50
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    quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

    PHAEDRUS, Absolute one eyed rubbish. The lengths you go to with all the twisted facts, to prove someone wrong does you no credit. You Miss out the stop loss level to try and prove your arguement why dont you do it again, or be big enough to say you are wrong. You tried the same rubbish with TPW go back to your charts and have another go. In all fairness i would not have bought CEN at that time it was only the point where you started your long term trend. If you look at the chart CEN was on a confirmed downtrend at your start point which i definately would not buy in to. it was only to show you how close our exit signals were from your start time, not mine. I remember the lengths you went to to discredit a time line system it seems you think it steals your thunder, grow tall man dont be petty.
    I do like your charts keep them coming but dont talk rubbish. macdunk
    But first remove the plank from thine own eye.
    om mani peme hum

  11. #51
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    Bit catty for a tiger perhaps we should call you ***** instead. Give me heaps but keep it straight not one eyed rubbish to try and prove a point. CEN will trend up its only time as will TPW. I can always bore Bongo on his new web site it might be fun giving him a stir up for a change. macdunk
    Had to edit my bad spelling

  12. #52
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    "CEN will trend up its only time as will TPW"

    Some of the sentences could have done with a bit of editing too.
    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

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  13. #53
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    Origin gain boosted by Contact

    Thursday August 31, 2006
    By Angela MacDonald-Smith


    Origin Energy's full-year profit rose 10 per cent, buoyed by a full-year contribution from New Zealand's Contact Energy.

    Australia's second-biggest energy retailer said net income rose to A$331.9 million ($391.8 million) in the year ended June 30, from A$301 million a year earlier. Sales jumped 21 per cent to A$5.9 billion.

    Origin bought 51.4 per cent of Contact in October 2004 for $1.65 billion to tap the nation's 3 per cent annual growth in power consumption.

    Managing director Grant King said earnings per share might be little changed this year, though average growth of 10 to 15 per cent a year remained "feasible" longer-term.

    "The result was bang in line but the guidance was disappointing," said Jason Mabee, a utilities analyst at ABN Amro Australia in Sydney.

    Earnings per share fell to 41.9 cents from 42.1 cents after Origin sold shares to fund the Contact acquisition.

    Investments in expansions in Australia with interest charges on recently completed projects is expected to increase interest expenses in the year ending June 30, 2007.

    "It is, therefore, possible that there will be little growth in earnings per share in the coming year," King said.

    The company's energy retailing business benefited from a cold early start to winter in southeastern Australia, which lifted second-half natural gas sales.

    Earnings before interest and tax from retailing rose 6 per cent to A$273 million.

    Origin's earnings before interest and tax from Contact jumped 50 per cent to A$519 million, while earnings from generation rose 14 per cent.

    Earnings from oil and gas exploration and production fell, as did earnings from the networks business.

    Origin's oil and gas production is set to jump in the year ending June 30, 2007, following the startup of the delayed BassGas and Otway natural gas projects off the southeastern coast.

    Production of coal seam gas will also increase over the next two years and the company is pursuing opportunities to expand hydropower and geothermal generation and start wind energy generation, Mr King said.

    Origin may also bid for energy retailing assets to be sold by the Queensland state government.

    Origin declared a final dividend of A9c up from A8c a year earlier.

    - BLOOMBERG
    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

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  14. #54
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    Come on guys use your brains and not your timelines.

    Origin wants all of CEN.

    Why?

    See the above article.

    They have tried for all of it at $8.00 but that wasn't enough.

    Do you honestly think they won't try again?
    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

    The information you have is not the information you want.
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  15. #55
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    quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

    Come on guys use your brains and not your timelines.
    They dont understand that either RMBBRAVE, so there goes your brain theory. Macdunk praising the herds knowledge of reality.
    ONLY KIDDIN

  16. #56
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    quote:Origin wants all of CEN
    I thought so too, rmb, especially with their consistent doom & gloom for at least the past year about CEN's prospects, e.g. future gas costs. It seemed so obvious that they were trying to talk the price down so they wouldn't have to pay too much. But on Wednesday Origin said they had no plans to either increase or quit their 51.4% stake. There's no way they could go back on such a firm statement in the foreseeable future.

    So what's next? There is speculation that with their ultra-strong balance sheet and no major acquisitions on the agenda, Origin could initiate a buy-back move by CEN - anything from 50c to $2 a share.

    With due respect to Phaedrus, this is for me a stronger BUY signal than anything likely to be shown on his charts.

  17. #57
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    Analysts talk up Contact bonanza
    01 September 2006
    By MARTA STEEMAN

    A capital repayment to Contact Energy's 95,000 shareholders of up to $1.15 billion is being talked of.


    The electricity producer posted a $281 million profit 10 days ago.

    Analysts say shareholders could get back between $290 million and $1.15 billion, which would be worth between 50 cents and $2 a share. A buyback of shares is considered a tax-efficient means of returning the capital. The return would probably happen before the end of June, Contact's balance date.

    Its size will depend on the outcome of a strategic review by chief executive David Baldwin. This follows the abandonment of a merger with Origin Energy.

    The review is expected to be completed by the end of the year, analysts say.

    Mr Baldwin said last week the company was reviewing its dividend policy and capital structure. He has not ruled out a capital return.

    At the February 2005 annual meeting, chairman Grant King, who is also chief executive of Origin, ruled out a capital return.

    AdvertisementAdvertisementThe review will set out expected spending on investments such as power plants and fuel supply.

    But analysts say any big capital expenditure projects in the next three or four years seems unlikely because the projects being investigated take time to develop.

    If Contact returned capital this year it had the option of going back to shareholders in several years when a power plant or another development required funding.

    They say Contact has too little debt and too much equity for a company of its type, and therefore its balance sheet was inefficient and its capital structure not the best. Debt is considered cheaper than equity.

    First New Zealand Capital analyst Jason Lindsay estimates Contact could return up to $1.15 billion. Contact has 576.7 million shares on issue, resulting in a capital return of $1.99 a share.

    Goldman Sachs JBWere analyst Peter Sigley suggested a capital return of about 50c a share, which would cost $288 million.

    Mr Sigley said Contact generated a huge amount of cash from its renewable hydro and geothermal power generation and was likely to remain cash rich.

    It had significant opportunities for "chunky" investment in power plants. But Mr Sigley estimated any investment would be few years off.

    "I think they could return a reasonable level of capital and still keep some options open," he said.

    Tyndall Investment equities manager Rickey Ward said institutional shareholders in Contact and analysts he had talked to expected some sort of capital return. Origin's lacklustre annual result this week increased the likelihood because Origin needed the cash.

    He hoped for some announcement or indication at the annual meeting on October 19, though others thought it might be closer to Christmas or at the half-year result in February.

    BT Funds management analyst Paul Richardson said at the annual meeting institutions would be questioning the company on capital structure, including a return of capital and the dividend policy.
    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

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  18. #58
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    Just started a get-rich-quick share portfolio apart from my main lot. 1500 CEN and 1500 TEL to ope the game.What to do with the remaining $3,000?

  19. #59
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    RBD my man .... before the private equity vultures swoop
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

  20. #60
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    quote:Originally posted by winner69

    RBD my man .... before the private equity vultures swoop
    Three grand he would be wasting his time, even if it comes off. Penny dreadfulls for you my man, do a bit of homework if you want a winner. Nothing over 20cents if its a get rich plan. High risk high return, with as many shares or options as you can get. The other option is trade your way up, with at least one buy and one sell every week. That can be a lot of fun, give that ago see what happens. macdunk

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