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  1. #21
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    Didymo already in the Clutha system. It seems that most river systems and lakes will be affected. Would hydropower generation be affected. The implications are enormous and far reaching. NZ freshwater fisheries may be wiped out. Whilst still on biosecurity, the marine farming scene is also under threat from another algae entity.
    Interesting to hear comments

  2. #22
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    CEN has been looking weak for about 3 months now and dropped 1.2% today to close at $7.28. This is below the long-term trendline that had held for 3 years.
    The chart below shows 6 indicators, only one of which has given a "Sell" signal as yet.

  3. #23
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    A possible bear trap??

    Personally, I do not think so. TPW below 100-day MA as well.

    S&P 500 closing below primary support @1200. ASX supported @4400 but for how long??




  4. #24
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    Gas prices expected to flatten Contact profit growth

    12.10.05 1.00pm


    Contact Energy expects earnings growth to flatten off this financial year, chairman Grant King told shareholders today.

    Higher gas costs would be a major challenge for the company over the next three to four years, he told the annual meeting in Auckland.

    "While wholesale electricity prices are likely to continue to rise over this period, it is not expected that these prices will keep pace with the increase in Contact's fuel costs, and there will be significant pressure on the company's trading margins," Mr King said.

    "In response to these pressures, Contact will be putting an increased emphasis on measures to optimise revenue and make efficiency gains across the business."

    Mr King said Contact would identify and secure new development opportunities, to ensure the company captures its share of market growth.

    Contact maintained a strong balance sheet to take advantage of these opportunities.

    New chief executive David Hunt said new thermal fuel sources -- whether domestic or imported -- would be more expensive than Maui gas.

    The effect of this was already being felt in higher electricity and gas prices.

    "We are now well and truly in the post-Maui era," he said.

    "A key area of focus will be striking the appropriate balance between cost containment, margin management, and investment in the business.

    "Significant competition in the generation market is emerging as energy companies bring previously uneconomic generation options to market."

    Mr Hunt said development of Contact's Otahuhu-C site would help security of supply to the Auckland region.

    "Otahuhu-C is the logical next major thermal station for New Zealand. Equally importantly, it is already consented," he said.

    Contact recorded an annual profit of $138 million in the year to June 30, which because of a change in balance date covered a nine-month period and compared with a $100.6 million profit for the previous corresponding period.

    - NZPA
    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

    The information you have is not the information you want.
    The information you want is not the information you need.
    The information you need is not the information you can obtain.
    The informaton you can obtain costs more than you want to pay.

  5. #25
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    CEN, have had a great run. Correction time looming, the share price will go side ways in my opinion. Investors dont like to listen to increased costs of production due to increased gas prices etc etc. TPW sp has stalled in sympathy but i expect in the end will benefit from cen being forced to raise prices to meet higher production costs. I think the smart money will get out of cen, and look for a new home. Great company great run but nothing lasts forever. macdunk
    PS had cen in the past sold to quick

  6. #26
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    According to analysts in the paper this morning the new CEO David Hunt did not actually say anything new. He is warning of something, that other things being equal, would have an unfavourable effect "within 4 years".
    Why then, the panic?
    Why indeed, did he (David Hunt) say this?
    The answer is - He's making like a politician.
    He's just taken over from Steve Barrett who was also making like a politician more than a CEO in the months before his departure.
    When Labour replaces National, or National replaces Labour, what is their first act?
    To attempt to put on record how bad, how desperate, the economic and social situation is when they took over.
    For National/Labour read Steve Barrett/David Hunt or vice versa. Then when David Hunt's contract comes up for renewal he can point out that Contact was on the brink of bankruptcy when he took over in October 2005 but now he has a positive cashflow and everything is ticking over nicely. Vote for David Hunt and a renewal of his CEO contract. He's so much better than that horrid, foreign, useless Steve Barrett who got everything wrong. You have to be a moron like the average NZ voter to swallow this nonsense. Its disturbing that so many NZ investors swallowed the same nonsense yesterday.
    As for me, I'm more interested in what the numbers show in the next quarterly CEN report "to be released by the end of October" than I am in David Hunt's personal propaganda show. With that sort of tired old start I hope his CEO contract doesn't get renewed. I doubt whether his ultimate masters in Origin Energy will be too impressed with how he's concentrated on talking down the CEN shareprice as his first priority as CEO.

  7. #27
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    An amusing fairy story, MvT. There is one flaw in this product of the Major's fevered imagination (quote: "I doubt whether his ultimate masters in Origin Energy will be too impressed with how he's concentrated on talking down the CEN share price as his first priority as CEO" etc). The warnings about rising costs, reduced margins and gas supplies came equally from Hunt and chairman King.

    King is also m.d. of Origin Energy, where Hunt worked before his recent appointment. The two obviously spoke in concert, with the OE board doubtless calling the shots. The market duly reacted as expected.

    Could it be an attempt to soften up the market - those shareholders whose interests directors are legally bound to promote - before a move by the Oz-dominant board to seek the 49% of CEN that OE does not already own[?]

  8. #28
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    Lawso....me thinks your on to it....as we have seen before (TRH-TOLL) the aussses (bless them) have usually managed to end up on the positive side (or at least try to) of the ledger when they get any exposure to a NZ company.With CEN talk the company down...blah blah...come in with an offer around $6 and tell us what a great deal they are offering....

    Hold CEN and always intend to.

  9. #29
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    Lawso:

    Could it be an attempt to soften up the market - those shareholders whose interests directors are legally bound to promote - before a move by the Oz-dominant board to seek the 49% of CEN that OE does not already own

    I guess that would be a too obvious and blunt strategy. I think it is more a reality statement about things to come for Contact...like

    ...forget about Contact as CashCow producing ever increasing profits

    ...listen, we are post Maui and we need to do a lot of things which will cost mega-dollars

    ...we are going to shape Contact more to the image of Origin which placed itself in the competitive rather than the regulated electricity market

    As a consequence I would assume, shareholders would need a greater appetite for risk and maybe the 'Old Guard' does not like the fact...fair enough but nevertheless...

    Kind regards

  10. #30
    PaulaEd
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    The talk about rising gas prices was known at least a year ago. Origin knew what the score was on gas prices before they bought in. Consumers will be the ones to pay for increasing tarrifs and shareholders to take the cream.

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