Contact Energy - CEN Chart

[fish]

Hi Fish
This is not strange behaviour....it's classic human behaviour. A group of investors (maybe small) are sensing, rightly or wrongly, that a bottom is somewhere close...they want to buy into CEN and they think they have plenty of time if they do it early...and they also think the price could go lower thereby they are accumulating slowly... so the last thing they want to do is jump in and outstrip supply at that price and push up the price while still accumulating....This group of individuals are also willing to temporary halt their buying if they see a bad day and allow the stock to fall then re-enter with their slow buying strategy again.....This doesn't necessarily raise their brokerage costs...as the investor can go online and readjusts the buy price/volume amount with the remaining order....A good tactic for the accumulator is to look at the share depth and if there are enough shares at a certain price to satisfy the accumulator for the meantime they (accumulator) buy up all those shares except one. Why?...because most people go on-line and don't use depth therefore they see that the share price /buy price/sell price has not changed..therefore they are unaware of whats happened and this minimizes the buy pressure signal.

Fish I'm a little surprised this has happened with CEN usually it happens with an illiquid stock that has big gaps within the sell prices.

Fish..I know you are not a TA fan but the short term CEN Chart has picked this activity up. My previous chart post#361 29th January is very long term and doesn't reflect CEN's short term behaviour so a shorter term chart (below) has picked up this behaviour.... The accumulation/distrubution indicators are showing slight divergence to the shareprice indicating that here isn't a huge number of investors or any big players doing it....Although this slight divergence is deemed slightly bullish it is best to be cautious as other TA indicators have not followed yet (not shown on chart)..

A buy signal for a stock need more than one indicator (or indicator group) firing off.....The OBV indicator is a good stock indicator (Phaedrus's favourite) it shows the flow of "smart" money.

Thanks for the TA Hoop-It is always interesting and to me reflects how investors are behaving and have been behaving .
In a stable market with steady investor thinking I can see how it predicts future trends better than complete guessswork . I doubt if it can however tell us when to start buying as this for instance can be initiated by an unanticipated event-e,g a takeover offer for cen could put the prce up by over $2 in minutes .

The numerous times someone has recently sold me a share for $1 to me seems to be an effort to push the price down-its not due to 1 buyer leaving 1 share left at a certain price to make it look as if the price hasnt gone up Rather it is somone selling me repeatedly 1 share to make the last sale price seem lower.

Today i put a buy order in at lunchtime for $4.76-I managed to accumulate a few more shares but the bulk of the order hasnt been filled .
5min power prices are very high and no significant rain in sight for at least a week

[Financially dependant]

Hi Fish
This is not strange behaviour....it's classic human behaviour. A group of investors (maybe small) are sensing, rightly or wrongly, that a bottom is somewhere close...they want to buy into CEN and they think they have plenty of time if they do it early...and they also think the price could go lower thereby they are accumulating slowly... so the last thing they want to do is jump in and outstrip supply at that price and push up the price while still accumulating....This group of individuals are also willing to temporary halt their buying if they see a bad day and allow the stock to fall then re-enter with their slow buying strategy again.....This doesn't necessarily raise their brokerage costs...as the investor can go online and readjusts the buy price/volume amount with the remaining order....A good tactic for the accumulator is to look at the share depth and if there are enough shares at a certain price to satisfy the accumulator for the meantime they (accumulator) buy up all those shares except one. Why?...because most people go on-line and don't use depth therefore they see that the share price /buy price/sell price has not changed..therefore they are unaware of whats happened and this minimizes the buy pressure signal.

Fish I'm a little surprised this has happened with CEN usually it happens with an illiquid stock that has big gaps within the sell prices.

Fish..I know you are not a TA fan but the short term CEN Chart has picked this activity up. My previous chart post#361 29th January is very long term and doesn't reflect CEN's short term behaviour so a shorter term chart (below) has picked up this behaviour.... The accumulation/distrubution indicators are showing slight divergence to the shareprice indicating that here isn't a huge number of investors or any big players doing it....Although this slight divergence is deemed slightly bullish it is best to be cautious as other TA indicators have not followed yet (not shown on chart)..

A buy signal for a stock need more than one indicator (or indicator group) firing off.....The OBV indicator is a good stock indicator (Phaedrus's favourite) it shows the flow of "smart" money.

A great overview of accumulating CEN Hoop.... but it seems to be happening to a lot of stocks atm, it just seems easier to see the illiquid ones...

[CJ]

This doesn't necessarily raise their brokerage costs...as the investor can go online and readjusts the buy price/volume amount with the remaining order....A good tactic for the accumulator is to look at the share depth and if there are enough shares at a certain price to satisfy the accumulator for the meantime they (accumulator) buy up all those shares except one.

I am not sure these two sentences work together.

The only way to take all the shares except 1 is to offer to only buy that amount of shares (ie. no part of the trade outstanding). That means your order has been completed and the brokerage set. You cant readjust price/volume at that point can you? - I thought this can only be done if you all/part of your trade is outstanding.

How can this be done?

Note: I use ASB securities online so this may be the limitation?

[fish]

I am not sure these two sentences work together.

The only way to take all the shares except 1 is to offer to only buy that amount of shares (ie. no part of the trade outstanding). That means your order has been completed and the brokerage set. You cant readjust price/volume at that point can you? - I thought this can only be done if you all/part of your trade is outstanding.

How can this be done?

Note: I use ASB securities online so this may be the limitation?

Below shows the quantity of shares in each trade when i put in a single buy order a week ago -22 trades were single digit and similar numbers are repeated.

Reference Trade Date Quantity Currency Settlement Amount Settlement Date
6099317 02-Feb-2012 329 4.7900 NZD 1,605.91 8-Feb-2012
6099319 02-Feb-2012 212 4.7900 NZD 1,015.48 8-Feb-2012
6099387 02-Feb-2012 329 4.7900 NZD 1,575.91 8-Feb-2012
6099399 02-Feb-2012 212 4.7900 NZD 1,015.48 8-Feb-2012
6099411 02-Feb-2012 1 4.7900 NZD 4.79 8-Feb-2012
6099421 02-Feb-2012 3 4.7900 NZD 14.37 8-Feb-2012
6099423 02-Feb-2012 6 4.7900 NZD 28.74 8-Feb-2012
6099429 02-Feb-2012 2 4.7900 NZD 9.58 8-Feb-2012
6099431 02-Feb-2012 7 4.7900 NZD 33.53 8-Feb-2012
6099433 02-Feb-2012 2 4.7900 NZD 9.58 8-Feb-2012
6099435 02-Feb-2012 6 4.7900 NZD 28.74 8-Feb-2012
6099439 02-Feb-2012 1 4.7900 NZD 4.79 8-Feb-2012
6099445 02-Feb-2012 6 4.7900 NZD 28.74 8-Feb-2012
6099447 02-Feb-2012 2 4.7900 NZD 9.58 8-Feb-2012
6099449 02-Feb-2012 5 4.7900 NZD 23.95 8-Feb-2012
6099451 02-Feb-2012 1 4.7900 NZD 4.79 8-Feb-2012
6099453 02-Feb-2012 6 4.7900 NZD 28.74 8-Feb-2012
6099455 02-Feb-2012 4 4.7900 NZD 19.16 8-Feb-2012
6099457 02-Feb-2012 1 4.7900 NZD 4.79 8-Feb-2012
6099459 02-Feb-2012 4 4.7900 NZD 19.16 8-Feb-2012
6099461 02-Feb-2012 2 4.7900 NZD 9.58 8-Feb-2012
6099469 02-Feb-2012 2 4.7900 NZD 9.58 8-Feb-2012
6099477 02-Feb-2012 4 4.7900 NZD 19.16 8-Feb-2012
6099487 02-Feb-2012 4 4.7900 NZD 19.16 8-Feb-2012
6099491 02-Feb-2012 1 4.7900 NZD 4.79 8-Feb-2012
6099495 02-Feb-2012 2 4.7900 NZD 9.58 8-Feb-2012
6099499 02-Feb-2012 329 4.7900 NZD 1,575.91 8-Feb-2012
6099501 02-Feb-2012 2 4.7900 NZD 9.58 8-Feb-2012
6099505 02-Feb-2012 48 4.7900 NZD 229.92 8-Feb-2012
6099511 02-Feb-2012 212 4.7900 NZD 1,015.48 8-Feb-2012

I havnt experienced before so many small trades to complete an order and am not sure what it signifies.
Its interesting that asb securities-morningstar -have an accumulate recommendation posted today for cen .

[CJ]

Below shows the quantity of shares in each trade when i put in a single buy order a week ago -22 trades were single digit and similar numbers are repeated.

I am not disputing that it is happening. I just dont think it is being by a small place using a normal online broking account. It must be being done by someone who can create a sell order for 1 share and not be concerned with brokerage costs. Hoop seemed to be suggesting taht you could sell individual shares as past of a larger sell order.

I wonder if they are trying to get you to raise your buy price for fear of having only bought 1 share and having to pay full commission on it.

[fish]

I am not disputing that it is happening. I just dont think it is being by a small place using a normal online broking account. It must be being done by someone who can create a sell order for 1 share and not be concerned with brokerage costs. Hoop seemed to be suggesting taht you could sell individual shares as past of a larger sell order.

I wonder if they are trying to get you to raise your buy price for fear of having only bought 1 share and having to pay full commission on it.

No-I think the opposite is true as i only pay 1 commission fee for any buy order-ie if i put a buy order in for 5000 shares-i pay the same commission whether it is filled in 1 transaction or several smaller transactions over several days .

yes-I believe whoever is selling 1 share at a time isnt bothered about transaction costs as they would have to repeatedly put in sell orders for 1 share at a time and pay brokerage and trade fee on each order .I think the aim must be to make the last sale price appear lower as a computer could send in repeat small orders until the share price drops.I dont really mind as i bought more shares today at a very low price .

Incidentally hydro lake levels are exceptionally low and hydro inflows are at the lowest I can see on record . It will be interesting seeing just how high power prices will go with no significant rain forcast .

[Financially dependant]

I am not disputing that it is happening. I just dont think it is being by a small place using a normal online broking account. It must be being done by someone who can create a sell order for 1 share and not be concerned with brokerage costs. Hoop seemed to be suggesting taht you could sell individual shares as past of a larger sell order.

I wonder if they are trying to get you to raise your buy price for fear of having only bought 1 share and having to pay full commission on it.

Hedge funds don't get charged per share but by quantity....some information on algorithmic trading that operates how most stocks are trading now..http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algorithmic_trading

[CJ]

I think we are all on the same page except maybe Hoop who started this. He seemed to suggest that this could be a small player doing the small sell parcels but I think it has to be a big player (who doesn't pay brokerage on a trade basis). Which big player would have an incentive to keep the price down. Origin is the only one I can think of.

[Financially dependant]

I think we are all on the same page except maybe Hoop who started this. He seemed to suggest that this could be a small player doing the small sell parcels but I think it has to be a big player (who doesn't pay brokerage on a trade basis). Which big player would have an incentive to keep the price down. Origin is the only one I can think of.

Any bank or fund that wants to accumulate would keep a lid on prices until they have the amount they want...plus drain any last share from weak hands before allowing price to appreciate. Funds don't want to buy all the way up just at there targeted accumulation range so then let SP rise on it's own.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Is it possible it is someone like ACC that is accumulating shares ...?