Contact Energy - CEN Chart

[fish]

Is it possible it is someone like ACC that is accumulating shares ...?

Possible but unlikely . The pattern of selling small amounts repeatedly suggests to me some automated computer selling to try and get the price down.

We know origin wants to takeover . The aussie dollar is very high . CEN profits are likely to take off as all the new projects come online. As I have said before making a takeover offer soon may be the last chance origin have . A low share price will mean the offer is more likely to be accepted-especially if investors can use the proceeds to buy cheap state owned power generators .

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Results will disapoint this year becaue of huge corporate overhead costs . Heard they were rolling out SAP for 80 million but now nearly double that cost.
Whats the cost of outsoucing IT to HP Australia into the same datacentres of Origin?
Only seems cost effective if Orgin own 100% right?

There has been huge generation investment with minimal increase in consumption.

If there are IT issues there could be significant impact ... = uncertainty and risk to consider ...

[fish]

Any IT issues could be negative press created by origin in order to depress the sp so that shareholders accept their 3rd time lucky takeover offer-thats when it comes which i think will be in the second quarter of this year ,
1st half results will be poor . Origin may have to up their offer if we get bonanza profits in the second half due to the south island drought and demand increases . I therefore think an early offer by origin is on the cards .

[troyvdh]

Today I e- mailed Origin asking if the could inform me as to whether or not they were going to make another bid CEN.
I also requested the date and what the price they were thinking of.
At least I tried.

[Lizard]

Today I e- mailed Origin asking if the could inform me as to whether or not they were going to make another bid CEN.
I also requested the date and what the price they were thinking of.
At least I tried.

Love it!

[CJ]

Today I e- mailed Origin asking if the could inform me as to whether or not they were going to make another bid CEN.
I also requested the date and what the price they were thinking of.
At least I tried.

Did you say the reason you wanted to know is so you could diarise rejecting their offer and so you could look forward to them stopping suppressing the shareprice with bad news.

[troyvdh]

CJ...funny you would say that.... i did mention the fact CEN has had its fair share of bad (and justified) press....inferring that perhaps this may have been somewhat of a deliberate ploy....blah blah...

...what would be really spooky...if IT actually happened....say tomorrow....I mean ....WOULD i be the MAN or WHAT....

[Silverlight]

Currently it would cost Origin 1.3b AU at market prices to buy the other 49% of Contact, and if they have to add 20%+ in premium they have to pay 1.6b AU plus. While Origin could get the funding from current debt facilities, the ROE and ROIC is significantly lower than they need to make such a move given other projects they are involved in.

Origin make about 5-600m AU in profits a year and have to fund nearly 8b in capex requirements for their stake in Australia Pacific LNG, with many expecting that Origin may have to do another capital raising as their debt to equity is at 19% already, compared AGL energy is under 10%, granted though AGL exploration is very small.

Purchasing Contact, which has even higher debt to equity (32%) at a premium, does not make financial sense for Origin at this stage, as it would increase their current debt levels, and lead to a re-rating profile of the price by analysts to higher risk, at a time when they may need to raise more capital anyway.

While from the point of view of retail holders, the price is lower than 1 year ago, Origin could be purchasing shares on market using the creep provision I doubt a full takeover would happen at the moment as it is not the place they can get the best return for their investment dollar

[macduffy]

I'm with Silverlight on this one. The LNG project is higher priorty with them at present so they're unlikely to be looking to take on more debt to buy out minority CEN holders, despite the lower CEN price currently. I suppose a scrip bid might be a possibility but how about this for a thought? Origin to steal a march on the NZ Govt by putting its CEN holding up for sale before the SOE's come to market? Would free up funds to help with the LNG project anf maybe Origin is a bit disillusioned with its NZ adventure?

OK, probably a bit left field but I wouldn't be surprised if Origin has at least thought about the idea.

[troyvdh]

Thanks for the last two posts...you have "slamd duncked"....me ...man i hate facts.....cheers...much appreciated....none the less....