Contact Energy - CEN Chart

[Arbitrage]

With such a good looking result, is it time for the company's major shareholder to let go? That would be an interesting scenario...

[Arbitrage]

Looks like more buyers are appreciating the good results.

[troyvdh]

Drongo...I would like to believe that you are right....if one looks at the chart (5 years)....we have been here before....My basic reason for hanging is partly emotional (dum I know)...2...no one is going to build another dam soon...and the divs are meant to be going up.

Do you remember the great Waitaki dam(s) debate...i.e. divert the river blah blah....Some folk at the time said that the extra energy provided by this series of dams (6?) would only suffice for a period of 3 years of current NZ demand...i.e.insinuating huge geographical consequences for a relatively short period of temporay gain....

HOW WRONG these bofins appear to have been.....who would have thought that NZ INC would have an over supply of energy !!!!!!!!

Me thinks that (the GFC acknowledged) all those energy efficient white appliances,bulbs et al have made an influence....but huh you might say what about Heatpumps...

I often wonder if a "strengthening economy" will indeed increased returns for companies as CEN...BUt I also understand that if a "company" wishes to be more efficient ...they actually will save money.....

What am I saying...not sure really ...again....cheers

[macduffy]

CEN's big shareholder, Origin, has posted a profit warning and reported a $2b cost blowout on its Queensland LNG project.

Increases the chances of a sell-off of their CEN stake?

[CJ]

Increases the chances of a sell-off of their CEN stake?

Bad time to sell $2B worth of stock given the SOE IPO's etc.

Can do a trade sale as that would trigger a take over offer for the rest.

If they did manage to get it away, it would add to the free float so presumably would increase its weighting in the NZX50.

[fish]

CEN's big shareholder, Origin, has posted a profit warning and reported a $2b cost blowout on its Queensland LNG project.

Increases the chances of a sell-off of their CEN stake?

I agree with cj that it would be a bad time for origin to sell.
I havnt seen any analysis of the likely effect of this drought on cen 2nd half profits . There is no significant rain likely for the rest of this month and the beginning of march .We are in a weather pattern of successive anticyclones that has got sometime to run yet .
Lake inflows are already exceptionally low .Power demand is at least as high as same period last year .Hydropower-the mainstay of power production will fall rapidly particularly in north island-and i suspect windpower is not producing much also .
CEN with its southern lakes,geothermal and gas turbine and gas storage should do exceptionally well-possible profits for 2nd half could be a multiple of last year !

Origin is unlikely to sell its golden goose unless an offer is made which it cant refuse-which is unlikely in current climate

[gv1]

what's happening here!!!

[fish]

what's happening here!!!

Please explain

In the meantime i see great profits being made for cen which is ideally positioned to take advantage of current climate conditions-a drought in the taupo catchment means big profits for contact.We are unlikely to get significant rain for sometime
Origin will want a big dividend in september-i suspect we will see 18 cents plus imputation credits in september and rising thereafter-a big jump from the 11cents plus imps in march .
Got a nice letter from contact today stating that to maintain a quality service my power prices are rising . A little rise each year is the way to go-in the meantime generation costs should decrease with te mihi geothermal generating cheaper power soon

[gv1]

Thanks fish. Increase in S/P later today.

[iceman]

Please explain

In the meantime i see great profits being made for cen which is ideally positioned to take advantage of current climate conditions-a drought in the taupo catchment means big profits for contact.We are unlikely to get significant rain for sometime
Origin will want a big dividend in september-i suspect we will see 18 cents plus imputation credits in september and rising thereafter-a big jump from the 11cents plus imps in march .
Got a nice letter from contact today stating that to maintain a quality service my power prices are rising . A little rise each year is the way to go-in the meantime generation costs should decrease with te mihi geothermal generating cheaper power soon

I think you might be right about the possibility of increased dividend fish. I got the same letter this morning and was surprised to see an increase of 10.1%. That combined with job losses, dry weather, no further capacity investment and geothermal coming on line, CEN is certainly a good share to hold. I just hope this doesn't bring on a consumer backlash like we have experienced before. As a consumer, I will be comparing the new charges to other suppliers in my area !