Contact Energy - CEN Chart

[RTM]

Thanks all for the help. Appreciate the link Banksie.

[Arbitrage]

Who needs MRP while CEN is performing so well? Up again today.

[CJ]

Who needs MRP while CEN is performing so well? Up again today.

Would work as a good arbitrage should there be a drought in the south island rather than the north island where their respective hydro generators are located.

Disc: hold CEN and TPW (directly and through IFT). Uncertain on MRP but will probably put in for a small holding.

[fish]

Would work as a good arbitrage should there be a drought in the south island rather than the north island where their respective hydro generators are located.

Disc: hold CEN and TPW (directly and through IFT). Uncertain on MRP but will probably put in for a small holding.

initially that sounds a good idea but closer research will show you that MRP is disproportionate and poorly balanced compared to CEN-MRP relies on one major catchment area and hydro accounts for 67% generation-a very risky proportion of generation and all in one catchment area .A drought in the southern and western alps is less likely because of prevailing winds and snow melt .Should a drought happen cen can increase their gas generation to make up for the smaller shortfall in generation

In contrast cen has its own gas reservoir and generation in addition to lots more geothermal-and Te Mihi currently being commissioned.
investors are starting to wake up to predictions made earlier this year in this thread that it should be a bumper year for cen based on fundamentals andclearly the chartist has got it badly wrong
I really dont think i will make an investment into mrp unless someone can convince me I have got it all wrong and mrp isnt going to make losses in the 2nd half of this financial year and future years.I really believe MRP could be for severe share price punishment when the full year results become known.

[troyvdh]

giday...I have no issue with your positive comments about CEN at all.....but man ..about MRP ...that's loaded...if that's true ..which I do not wish it be for various reasons..then for sure its good bye John and Hello David....It would be truly a nasty outcome...should MRP fail....it will only serve to embolden those who are against such endeavours....I shudder...anyways cheers...

disc...hold about 8000 CEN

[CJ]

Fish - MRP relies on just one catchment for its hydro but it is a big one -this years drought was big though I think we should be expecting more going forward given climate change (note it is no longer refered to as global warming). Also Snow melt is slow during winter which is a time of high demand. However, as you state, it is over reliant on Hydro (64% for MRP vs 37% for CEN).

CEN also has a lot of Geothermal but not quite as much as MRP from what I can tell (at least % wise - 23% vs 30% - Increasing to 40% with new plant). It does make you wonder why MRP is advertising itself as the geothermal experts when CEN must be equally as competent.

CEN is also reliant on a lot of Combined cycle for its generation (31% compared to 6% for MRP) which is expensive, even if it does have its own gas reservoir. Since CEN is more reliant on expensive gas it does make you wonder why MRP isn't more profitable than it is given it is ~95% Hydro/geothermal which is extremely cheap.

I agree that CEN is the better share at the moment but I am confused as to why MRP isn't more profitable given it sources more of its power from cheap renewables.

Edit: Just saw this which confirms my confusion:

"Geothermal is a unique renewable because of its predictability and the reliability of earnings it creates," he said. "There are other geothermal assets that you can get access to on the stock market but they are in a portfolio of a lot of gas assets [which have higher operating costs]." http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...-ahead-of-sale

[Jaa]

The Labour/Greens policy of charging for generation on a cost plus a reasonable return basis instead of our current marginal cost system will not work out so badly for Contact. They got most of the government's expensive power stations when they were split from ECNZ. Genesis as well.

It is Meridian, Mighty River and Trustpower in that order who will be most affected as they run the power stations that produce the cheapest power.

[garfy]

CEN SP has been slipping over the past few days (although up 4c at the time of writing), following the tumble from after L/G pronouncement. Would be very interested in the Forum opinions on the ability of 'the market' to cope with another 4 companies, the potential closure of Tiwai Point, and the possibility of a L/G government. The ice seems to be getting rather thin.

disc. Holding CEN, not interested in the SOE's IPOs.

[CJ]

CEN SP has been slipping over the past few days (although up 4c at the time of writing), following the tumble from after L/G pronouncement. Would be very interested in the Forum opinions on the ability of 'the market' to cope with another 4 companies, the potential closure of Tiwai Point, and the possibility of a L/G government. The ice seems to be getting rather thin.

disc. Holding CEN, not interested in the SOE's IPOs.

I dont think the market will be concerned if all the SOE float.

Tiwai would be managed with higher cost plants closing (eg Huntly) such that there wont be such a spike in supply.
LG is another matter and probably 50% factored into price considering LG have a 50% chance of getting in.

[Arbitrage]

The price is almost back to where it was before the Labour Greens announcement.