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03-07-2020, 03:22 PM
#17811
Based on my experience with other companies - the short term "concern" will be whether someone has been lurking waiting for today's announcement with the prospect of a T/O. The "concern" is, in that event, how will the Board view it and more importantly, what they will recommend to holders.
I would like to think DD & Co are awake to any premature T/O bid.
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03-07-2020, 05:27 PM
#17812
Think Otago University might have a bit to say about that.
Good to get a deep breath of fresh air after being underwater for so long.
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03-07-2020, 08:12 PM
#17813
Only 16m shares traded today, i'm a little surprised volumes weren't higher given many I'm sure have been waiting for news to sell out. Bodes well for future gains as it could be that the instos aren't ready to offload yet. They'll have less chance to suppress and accumulate on lower volumes. Hold tight and see where it goes I say. Am pleased that there's finally been some progress!
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03-07-2020, 09:14 PM
#17814
Originally Posted by sb9
...Also, it would've been helpful if they've quantified the value of total reimbursements.
Some one has said that there is $25M of unpaid tests which will get repaid somewhere between $0 & $25M over some unknown time scale.
Last year the 'revenue' from CMS would have been $6M2 which would have reduced the loss to $12M6.
The Kaiser thing is shrouded in mystery as to test numbers and price.
So, I reckon that there is:
1/ a possible cash flow problem this financial year;
2/ they will make a loss this financial year and maybe next as well.
But in the longer term it may thrive.
However is worth a market cap of $379M?
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03-07-2020, 09:59 PM
#17815
Lol, is PPH - a NZ Church tipping app - worth $2.5 Billion???...
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04-07-2020, 08:12 AM
#17816
Originally Posted by Snow Leopard
Some one has said that there is $25M of unpaid tests which will get repaid somewhere between $0 & $25M over some unknown time scale.
Last year the 'revenue' from CMS would have been $6M2 which would have reduced the loss to $12M6.
The Kaiser thing is shrouded in mystery as to test numbers and price.
......However is worth a market cap of $379M?
So current Revenue = (say) $6 mill. Then buried in the reports is the news that up tp 43% of current CMS revenue is 'free'..... so if that now turns to revenue we get $9 mill.
Plus added Revenue from Kaiser?? (say another $10 mill??)
Plus previous revenue not charged but now chargeable (say) $25 mill (one-off)
Plus growth and new customers? Looks like FY21 Revenue could get to $30 mill?
Interested to hear other views, in the meantime happy to have used yesterday's news to double my holding so now my av holding SP 35% lower than yesterday's closing SP.
Last edited by Leftfield; 04-07-2020 at 08:13 AM.
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04-07-2020, 09:50 AM
#17817
Member
Not sure about current revenues, but there is this from an Edison report (paid for by PEB no doubt):
"According to an analysis by Ernst and Young sponsored by Pacific Edge, the annual addressable market for Cxbladder is US$1.2bn with 3.4 million being evaluated for urothelial cancer each year. An additional 800,000 are monitored for recurrence three to four times per year."
If the PEB suite of tests prove to be better than other commercial tests, perhaps the allure of the total market opportunity is what is giving it a mcap of nearly NZ$400m.
Last edited by Longhaul; 04-07-2020 at 11:48 AM.
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04-07-2020, 11:33 AM
#17818
Kaiser Permanente is a Healthcare Provider.
Medicare is a Public Healthcare Insurer
Therefore a person going to a KP clinic having Medicare as their insurance will now be told that cxBladder is now covered by their insurance.
Therefore you cannot add Medicare totals to KP totals for an estimate of income.
The Medicare totals owing come from all the Healthcare Providers in the US including KP with patients having Medicare Insurance.
Think that is the way it works.
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04-07-2020, 12:20 PM
#17819
Article in the NZ Herald today.... see here.
A bit more is said on future revenue....
"Andrew Bascand, managing director of Harbour Asset Management - which owns 16.4 per cent of Pacific Edge - estimates that "at the current run rate the CMS approval is worth about $10m in revenues" to the firm.
Pacific Edge said it will now also seek reimbursement for tests that have already been done and invoiced for CMS patients.
Those invoices are worth about US$16.6m, but final reimbursement is typically subject to negotiation"
Looks like FY 21 Revenue of $20 - $30 mill not far wrong?
Last edited by Leftfield; 04-07-2020 at 12:22 PM.
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04-07-2020, 01:00 PM
#17820
Member
Originally Posted by Balance
They spent $200m+ to get to here over a period of 20 years.
I think they will find it relatively easy from now to raise money if they want to - but they should not need to.
Revenues will depend on the uptake of Cxbladder by other health providers and the speed at which it happens.We may see a flood of announcements as,in my opinion,this will happen quite rapidly.
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