PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Poverty]

Yeah they have a really good momentum going on with Cxbladder right now. Who knows how much more will happen next announcement.

[Longhaul]

So strategy is hold hoping for the next big sp bounce announcement with all subjective fundamentals right now? sounds great

1. Decide if you want to invest. "NO" is the easiest answer, no shortage of other places to put your money.

2. If "YES", decide how much you want to risk.

3. Decide whether to buy in at market price now (and maybe set a stop loss that you are comfortable with).

4. Or, decide to build your position over time as the SP falls, and hope you get your position before there is any announcement.


As Balance mentions, I think a lot of us are expecting further announcements, and that there is a really high chance they will be good based on finally achieving the CMS milestone. Unfortunately we have no way of predicting when these might drop.

As always, if you are not willing to take on risk, you will reap the commensurate rewards.

GLTAH.

[Longhaul]

Just watched an older presentation from 2017 on CxBladder by urologist Sia Daneshmand (not sure what, if any, relationship he might have with Pacific Edge but he is a big fan it seems?) - https://youtu.be/ZC1yCvwZl74.

Nothing that we don't already know, but towards the end of the video he discusses how the CxBladder tests could make their way into primary healthcare settings in the US.

We know there are roughly 80,000 new cases of bladder cancer in the US every year and these represent just 3-5% of cases of hematuria. A quick calculation would suggest up to 1.6m people present to their doctor (or urologist) with hematuria each year and need to have bladder cancer ruled out, or get a full work up.

Even if just 5% of the 1.6m patients with hematuria get a CxBladder test, that could be as many as 80,000 tests p.a. This doesn't even include any subsequent monitoring of the actual 80,000 new confirmed cases each year.

The other presenter also says how there's growing medical malpractice lawsuits because of cancers being missed by their urologist or doctor. If CxBladder becomes a gold standard test to either rule out cancer (NPV of 97%), or find that further investigation is required, I imagine physicians everywhere will be lining up to use this and avoid those lawsuits.

Finally, we also hear from PEB's annual report that teleconferences due to Covid-19 have gone from 15% to up to 80% for a "leading healthcare provider". With the current situation getting out of control in the US at the moment, perhaps this really will accelerate uptake of non-contact testing in a big way. It's mostly the elderly who will be presenting with hematuria and they are most at risk of the virus.

It really feels like things are lining up - could Pacific Edge be a US$1B company one day? I guess that's the dream.


Bonus: here's a reminder of the performance of the other tests from 2017 data - screenshot.jpg

[nevchev]

Cheers longhaul,like your work😁

[Minerbarejet]

Dont know where you have obtained your figures but here is the quotation from the PEB AGM of 2019.

The USA remains our primary commercial focus with an estimated addressable annual market opportunityfor Cxbladder of around US$1.2b, this was ratified by EY Parthenon in 2018.Our tests can be used for the 7 million people who present annually with haematuria, the 3.4 million whorequire further workup for bladder cancer annually, and the 800,000 who need monitoring for recurrence ofthe disease more than 3 times per year. So you can see that this is a sizeable market where there has beenno new commercial tests launched in 17 years.

Seems to be plenty of room for expansion.
Lab throughputs will show the increases from here on.

[Longhaul]

Dont know where you have obtained your figures...

Thanks Minerbarejet! Seems my rough calc was extremely conservative. (Which is good to know).

Has anyone seen any annual sales figures for the other commercial tests?

[Minerbarejet]

Two things happened along the way in this saga that convinced me that they were on the right track and had a bright future.

The first was a small bullet that appeared under one of the original publications for review.
It stated that during testing cxBladder found 2 cases that cystoscopy did not find until further investigation found them eventually.
One was upper tract and the other In situ. I recall a renal also detected

The second was shortly after CDHB started its assessment and someone ( the NHB I think) enquired as to what had happened to their CDHB waiting lists.

Another more recent one has been the mentioning on several occasions that cxBladder can in fact replace the Gold Standard, Cystoscopy, in certain Monitoring situations and providing a better result when used as an adjunct for indecisive cases.

Hopefully we may get an indication of progress via the AGM which is not far away.
Be definitely expecting some kind of uptick from the last month.
We will see,
Maybe its time to get quarterly reporting under way.

[Minerbarejet]

Lets just take that 7 million presenting with haematuria over the entire population.
Kaiser Permanente has roughly 1/27th of the population on its books at around 12 million.
Therefore their share is roughly 260,000 patients
If 1 in 10 are allocated a cxbladder test that ends up with around 26000 tests at 1000NZd a time.

Enough to support the current PEB expenditures on its own.
Just Kaiser
Just Triage
Just 10%

So what are Kaiser doing with the other 90%?

[Brain]

Lets just take that 7 million presenting with haematuria over the entire population.
Kaiser Permanente has roughly 1/27th of the population on its books at around 12 million.
Therefore their share is roughly 260,000 patients
If 1 in 10 are allocated a cxbladder test that ends up with around 26000 tests at 1000NZd a time.

Enough to support the current PEB expenditures on its own.
Just Kaiser
Just Triage
Just 10%

So what are Kaiser doing with the other 90%?

Which ever way you dice it the opportunity seems huge. I am sure that 100% of the patients would be happier to go with CX bladder rather than the Cystoscopy which is not going to be much fun. Presumably the medical insurers would be making savings as well. There has got to be a significant tail wind here . I am a happy holder.

[Yoda]

CxBladder test is much safer for medical staff during this Covid times, rather than close contact cystoscopy. More money can be made for a dr doing a cystoscopy, but the test might be done for social distancing? ( I think thats been covered before, but just thinking out loud)