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09-08-2020, 05:55 PM
#18131
Member
Yeah, $1b. They mentioned at the AGM that the test price ranges between $NZD1,100 and $NZD3,400, with most sales taking place at the higher end.
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09-08-2020, 07:08 PM
#18132
Wont matter what the test price is at unless someone starts stumping up some cash for tests used.
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09-08-2020, 08:13 PM
#18133
Member
Originally Posted by Minerbarejet
Wont matter what the test price is at unless someone starts stumping up some cash for tests used.
The cost of each test is 100NZD so the revenue of PEB should be at least at 4% above from your model :-)
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09-08-2020, 11:29 PM
#18134
It almost looks as if that is the level they have been paid at.
Interesting that the agreed and coded price of 710.00US has suddenly transmogrified into 3400.00 NZD
Exchange rate must have really sagged.
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10-08-2020, 03:33 AM
#18135
Member
Originally Posted by baaantom
Yeah, $1b. They mentioned at the AGM that the test price ranges between $NZD1,100 and $NZD3,400, with most sales taking place at the higher end.
If they ever operate at capacity of 260000 tests at $1100 its still 288m.Will take time but ducks slowly lining up
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10-08-2020, 09:22 AM
#18136
On my rounds and just a little behind..
I wouldn't get too excited about NZD3400 per test. Those numbers will be few and most of it will go to the test procurer, ie. ticket clipping. PEB is LCD covered for USD760 (~NZD1100) and that's pretty much what they'll get.
Also impt to consider that higher volumes lead to reduced prices in tests. If they capture much of the market, still a big if, the price will eventually drop a bit as the LCD will review weight based coverage value.
Last edited by drcjp; 10-08-2020 at 09:23 AM.
Reason: spell check
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10-08-2020, 10:41 AM
#18137
An interested bystander has told me that as far as he can recall the $3400 is the Federal Supply schedule price, so this is a contract price for the test for the VA & Tricare.
The $US760 is the contract price for CMS.
Other insurers and payers will negotiate their own supply contracts and this will probably be $US760 or greater.
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10-08-2020, 10:43 AM
#18138
Member
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10-08-2020, 11:22 AM
#18139
Member
Before getting too excited imagining $1 billion in $1 coins within the next year...
1. The MATERIALS for the test may cost $100 per test but businesses have other costs too. Staff, wages, rent, marketing, travel, R&D... For PEB these costs add up to 20 odd million per year.
2. Like Pharmac here in NZ who get substantial discounts on drugs through bulk buying, the big users of the tests will get significant discounts. So use the conservative figure of $760 per test in calculations... and hope for a happy surprise
3. Covid. Remember back in Lockdown how the daily updates changed? A few weeks in not only were we getting covid updates but also reminders to not put off other health needs. There was real concern that the numbers of people getting tested for other things had dropped off significantly. We're through that now, but the rest of the world?
4. And Covid. Tends to have a particularly bad effect on the elderly, particularly with other underlying health needs.
5. The US dollar may be dropping in value at present
Overall I am extremely happy with my holding, and am NOT selling, but I don't expect dividends in the near future. Maybe 2 years away yet and then steadily increasing over the years?
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11-08-2020, 09:28 AM
#18140
Member
And as for dividends? Growth companies tend to pour the bulk of their profits back into the business to continue to grow it. This tends to increase the value of the company and the share price.
Once this is well underway THEN they will look at paying out dividends. Small at first, increasing over the years.
Personally I'm having a private bet with myself as to WHEN the share price will hit $1 and how long it will then take to hit $10 and over.
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