PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[jimdog31]

...hope you not saying that's been one of the problems with PEB over the years

haha. With their market cap where it is , and supposedly heading, Id say they need to be paying more to get more.

[Minerbarejet]

How is Bryan these days?

Or am I mistaken

Im sure Bryan is fine these days - whoever he is.
Lol

[glenscape]

For Bars updated this morning. No change to target price
OUTPERFORM
Pacific Edge (PEB) announced coverage from United Healthcare, the largest US private health insurer — another important
external validation in the key US market for its bladder cancer tests. The market opportunity is extensive and we see PEB as
well positioned to capitalise on this. There is no short-cut to changing clinical practice and the hard work is far from over,
however, recent key milestones have helped to prove up the commercial model and lower the risk. With the range of
justifiable long-term outcomes wide, we expect the share price to continue to be driven by newsflow — which is likely to be
positively skewed as further commercial progress follows recent success. OUTPERFORM.
Recent commercial milestones in the key US market
We have no visibility on price, however, expect both will be above that of public health insurer, CMS (price of US$760/test).
No change to forecasts, but helps to provide further confidence in medium-term outlook
We have not made any changes to our forecasts; our base case already incorporates progress with private insurers. However, as PEB
continues to make further commercial progress this helps to increase our confidence in the revenue path, and lower the risk. Being ‘in
network’ (or under coverage) with US payors will materially speed up the time to cash collection and reduce leakage (where cash is
never collected). This should also see test numbers better match revenue in time.
Share price responsive to newsflow
PEB's share price is highly responsive to newsflow, with the strong spike post the United Healthcare announcement returning the
stock to its recent high (late December 2020) after a period of steady decline. The path from here will unlikely be straight, however,
we expect newsflow to be positively skewed. This includes: new commercial agreement(s), stronger mention/inclusion in clinical
guidelines, back payment from US public health insurer CMS (for tests done ahead of securing reimbursement), additional.

In a research note released today, Forsyth Barr gave Pacific Edge an outperform tag, with a target price of $1.60, up from its last close of $1.2 a share.
Forsyth Barr senior analyst Chelsea Leadbetter said the bladder cancer test market opportunity was extensive and Pacific Edge was well positioned to capitalise on it.
“There is no shortcut to changing clinical practice and the hard work is far from over, however, recent key milestones have helped to prove up the commercial model and lower the risk.”
https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/pacific-...ing-strong-run

[jridler]

I think it's good, 18 years is a long time in the saddle. Very healthy decision to know when to step back and enjoy your hard work.
The next CEO will likely have the skills to take PEB to the next level. The next 12 months aren't going to be stellar but maybe an opportunity to buy some more at bargain prices when results disapoint.

Interested to understand more regarding your statement of "the next 12 months aren't going to be stellar". Is this in respect of the share price, company performance, or both?

[jridler]

We'll probably have to pay the new CEO heaps more than the $600k odd that David was getting

DD received 432k for FY2020 as per annual report.

[silu]

DD received 432k for FY2020 as per annual report.

That's cheap. One of the companies in the sector I'm holding pays their CEO over NZ$1m + share options. But then he came with an impressive CV and has a silver tongue and great presentation skills which (unfortunately) opened my purse strings.

[winner69]

DD received 432k for FY2020 as per annual report.

Your right

I just looked at the table of remuneration over $100k and top one was 620k

So poor old David has 3 people earning more than him ...prob Jackie and others at PEDUSA

[Lion_graf]

In a research note released today, Forsyth Barr gave Pacific Edge an outperform tag, with a target price of $1.60, up from its last close of $1.2 a share.
Forsyth Barr senior analyst Chelsea Leadbetter said the bladder cancer test market opportunity was extensive and Pacific Edge was well positioned to capitalise on it.
“There is no shortcut to changing clinical practice and the hard work is far from over, however, recent key milestones have helped to prove up the commercial model and lower the risk.”
https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/pacific-...ing-strong-run

Brokerage companies like Forsyth bar has also given Plexure and outperform of $1.58.. they have absolutely no clue. I'd love to see how they come up with these figures given they are both growth companies and impossible to predict new acquisitions, contracts, revenue. These types of companies could change on a dime. So far plexure has ipo'd on the asx and not brought in another customer or another announcement since.
Forsyth/Morningstar = rubbish.

[calledone]

Brokerage companies like Forsyth bar has also given Plexure and outperform of $1.58.. they have absolutely no clue. I'd love to see how they come up with these figures given they are both growth companies and impossible to predict new acquisitions, contracts, revenue. These types of companies could change on a dime. So far plexure has ipo'd on the asx and not brought in another customer or another announcement since.
Forsyth/Morningstar = rubbish.

I believe they used a 10 year discounted cash flow method to come to that figure. It’s not out of thin air. Of course it’s all based on an ideal growth trajectory with more and more physicians becoming confident in the efficiency and accuracy of PEBs test suits.

I think a key difference between Plexure and PEB is that it’s much harder for potential competitors to catch up to PEB whereas it might be relatively easier for Plexure’s competition to replicate or augment existing tech to create a better version to engage new mobile users.

[glenscape]

agree with you calledone. PEB has some 10yrs advantage tech comparing with other players in this field. harder to be copied oppositing to PX1.