sharetrader
  1. #17811
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Posts
    941

    Default

    Based on my experience with other companies - the short term "concern" will be whether someone has been lurking waiting for today's announcement with the prospect of a T/O. The "concern" is, in that event, how will the Board view it and more importantly, what they will recommend to holders.

    I would like to think DD & Co are awake to any premature T/O bid.

  2. #17812
    AWOL
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    Vacation
    Posts
    2,782

    Default

    Think Otago University might have a bit to say about that.

    Good to get a deep breath of fresh air after being underwater for so long.

  3. #17813
    Antiquated & irrational t.rexjr's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2017
    Location
    Under the sycamore tree
    Posts
    592

    Default

    Only 16m shares traded today, i'm a little surprised volumes weren't higher given many I'm sure have been waiting for news to sell out. Bodes well for future gains as it could be that the instos aren't ready to offload yet. They'll have less chance to suppress and accumulate on lower volumes. Hold tight and see where it goes I say. Am pleased that there's finally been some progress!

  4. #17814
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Private Universe
    Posts
    5,853

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    ...Also, it would've been helpful if they've quantified the value of total reimbursements.
    Some one has said that there is $25M of unpaid tests which will get repaid somewhere between $0 & $25M over some unknown time scale.

    Last year the 'revenue' from CMS would have been $6M2 which would have reduced the loss to $12M6.

    The Kaiser thing is shrouded in mystery as to test numbers and price.

    So, I reckon that there is:
    1/ a possible cash flow problem this financial year;
    2/ they will make a loss this financial year and maybe next as well.

    But in the longer term it may thrive.

    However is worth a market cap of $379M?
    om mani peme hum

  5. #17815
    I like peanuts... youngatheart's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Oh, everywhere
    Posts
    418

    Default

    Lol, is PPH - a NZ Church tipping app - worth $2.5 Billion???...

  6. #17816
    Outside thinking.
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    2,563

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Snow Leopard View Post
    Some one has said that there is $25M of unpaid tests which will get repaid somewhere between $0 & $25M over some unknown time scale.

    Last year the 'revenue' from CMS would have been $6M2 which would have reduced the loss to $12M6.

    The Kaiser thing is shrouded in mystery as to test numbers and price.

    ......However is worth a market cap of $379M?
    So current Revenue = (say) $6 mill. Then buried in the reports is the news that up tp 43% of current CMS revenue is 'free'..... so if that now turns to revenue we get $9 mill.

    Plus added Revenue from Kaiser?? (say another $10 mill??)

    Plus previous revenue not charged but now chargeable (say) $25 mill (one-off)

    Plus growth and new customers? Looks like FY21 Revenue could get to $30 mill?

    Interested to hear other views, in the meantime happy to have used yesterday's news to double my holding so now my av holding SP 35% lower than yesterday's closing SP.
    Last edited by Leftfield; 04-07-2020 at 07:13 AM.

  7. #17817
    Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    382

    Default

    Not sure about current revenues, but there is this from an Edison report (paid for by PEB no doubt):

    "According to an analysis by Ernst and Young sponsored by Pacific Edge, the annual addressable market for Cxbladder is US$1.2bn with 3.4 million being evaluated for urothelial cancer each year. An additional 800,000 are monitored for recurrence three to four times per year."

    If the PEB suite of tests prove to be better than other commercial tests, perhaps the allure of the total market opportunity is what is giving it a mcap of nearly NZ$400m.
    Last edited by Longhaul; 04-07-2020 at 10:48 AM.

  8. #17818
    AWOL
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    Vacation
    Posts
    2,782

    Default

    Kaiser Permanente is a Healthcare Provider.
    Medicare is a Public Healthcare Insurer

    Therefore a person going to a KP clinic having Medicare as their insurance will now be told that cxBladder is now covered by their insurance.
    Therefore you cannot add Medicare totals to KP totals for an estimate of income.

    The Medicare totals owing come from all the Healthcare Providers in the US including KP with patients having Medicare Insurance.
    Think that is the way it works.

  9. #17819
    Outside thinking.
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    2,563

    Default

    Article in the NZ Herald today.... see here.

    A bit more is said on future revenue....

    "Andrew Bascand, managing director of Harbour Asset Management - which owns 16.4 per cent of Pacific Edge - estimates that "at the current run rate the CMS approval is worth about $10m in revenues" to the firm.
    Pacific Edge said it will now also seek reimbursement for tests that have already been done and invoiced for CMS patients.
    Those invoices are worth about US$16.6m, but final reimbursement is typically subject to negotiation"

    Looks like FY 21 Revenue of $20 - $30 mill not far wrong?
    Last edited by Leftfield; 04-07-2020 at 11:22 AM.

  10. #17820
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2020
    Location
    great barrier island
    Posts
    410

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    They spent $200m+ to get to here over a period of 20 years.

    I think they will find it relatively easy from now to raise money if they want to - but they should not need to.
    Revenues will depend on the uptake of Cxbladder by other health providers and the speed at which it happens.We may see a flood of announcements as,in my opinion,this will happen quite rapidly.

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •