PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Minerbarejet]

1. CMS possible windfall on completed tests once fully signed up- late 2014 early 2015
2. Kaiser HMO possible sign up with a further link to Johns Hopkins in Baltimore - Feb
3. ARHQ Draft cxbladder contribution based on one measly test #52.O'Sullivan 2012. Expect better from full report. - Feb
4. Colorectal ready for market possibly into Japan as a joint venture
5. CxBladder triage for release late 2014 in NZ
6. Developing Melanoma and Gastric probably with Callaghan Grants for 4.5 mil over 3 years plus 2 years further grants possible
7. Online sales
8. 20 mil in the bank
9. Expanding sales force
10. CFO hired

11. Have a nice day

[Balance]

I would have to agree because there wouldn't be a lot of investors apart from a few on this thread who actually undertstand the intricacies of PEB's market development situation, and the actual figures will be largely meaningless to a lot of people. This is still a speculative stock and hardly ready for analysis using normal methods. A couple of articles in the ODT and Herald and the explanatory comments of DD and Swann (i.e. commentary) will probably have more impact than the release of figures that have to be explained in detail to the uninitiated. Even then, PEB will remain speculative and its SP will remain largely subjective. I've placed my bet and am sticking. Some of the cynics will drop out, the believers will remain in. The evidence seems to suggest that FY 2015 will give the analysts a much better steer. Yes, that means waiting another year.

PEB is now an index stock - means it is covered by analysts.

Means they will be ignoring what DD and Swan is hyping - they will be assessing PEB's progress against their expectations. Have a look at Forbar report for a steer of what is expected.

[MAC]

Hi Kild,

Large professional investors and the market generally understand how molecular biotech business models work, the strategic plan for the commercialisation of their products, and they know that early sales are relatively meaningless within such a plan.

Early random sales achieved, whilst engaging and training sales staff, and establishing a contact base for much more lucrative user programme roll overs, are certainly not an indicator of progress, nor are they at all indicative of a stock’s valuation.

A read of these links may serve you well, there is a methodology applied by analysts in valuing biotech stocks,

https://www.deloitte.com/view/en_us/...42f00aRCRD.htm

http://www.investopedia.com/articles...hvaluation.asp

Genuinely hope this assists you

kind regards, Mac

[klid]

I've already read that second link, maybe you or someone posted it before. Agree with it all, but don't see how it's relevant to what's going to happen to the share price on results release.

Thanks for the commentary there Miner, hasn't convinced me to buy. Maybe if I hear it from Chris soon though, but really I will be looking for that sales figure with my finger on the trigger - expect others will too. Inital 10%+ gain/drop on the cards I'd say.

[BFG]

I'm guessing 127 tests in the US that have been paid for.

And I thought I was being bearish!!!

[BFG]

It pays to take history into account as well in cases like these. I remember the incredible hype surrounding the obesity pill market in the USA in 2011 & 2012. Arena Pharmaceuticals shot up after FDA approval with Belviq, then promptly tanked and has NEVER recovered as sales have since then been much less than expected. Vivus was next with Qysimia, which again shot up on FDA approval... then tanked... and never recovered. These companies are still yet to be profitable, even with a massive potential market, being US based and despite HUGE marketting schemes for their products.

Point is, the hype and excitement phase was great, but it never lasts. PEB needs to start delivering, and delivering WELL ABOVE ITS WEIGHT. If it cannot, this company will be another VVUS or ARNA, no matter what MAC says and not matter how many DCF models he makes.

ARNA chart: https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=...=on&z=l&q=l&c=

VVUS chart: https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=VVUS&t=5y

Read carefully:

IT IS NOT DIFFERENT THIS TIME!!!!

[winner69]

It pays to take history into account as well in cases like these. I remember the incredible hype surrounding the obesity pill market in the USA in 2011 & 2012. Arena Pharmaceuticals shot up after FDA approval with Belviq, then promptly tanked and has NEVER recovered as sales have since then been much less than expected. Vivus was next with Qysimia, which again shot up on FDA approval... then tanked... and never recovered. These companies are still yet to be profitable, even with a massive potential market, being US based and despite HUGE marketting schemes for their products.

Point is, the hype and excitement phase was great, but it never lasts. PEB needs to start delivering, and delivering WELL ABOVE ITS WEIGHT. If it cannot, this company will be another VVUS or ARNA, no matter what MAC says and not matter how many DCF models he makes.

ARNA chart: https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=...=on&z=l&q=l&c=

VVUS chart: https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=VVUS&t=5y

Read carefully:

IT IS NOT DIFFERENT THIS TIME!!!!

But BFG ...it's the commentary that matters

[psychic]

Gosh, are there any success stories at all?

[psychic]

Of course, there are loads of Pharma success stories, and plenty of disappointments,

I just don't see much relevance, but thanks for the warning BFG

[MAC]

Pacific Edge have provided a commercialisation plan Kild, and quite a comprehensive plan. Investors look for progress against that plan, sales at this point are not entirely irrelevant, but nor are they at this stage, really meaningful as an indicator of how the company is doing.

Molecular biotech stocks are not like IT stocks where a steady increase in revenues is required over years to achieve profitability based on scales of economy.

Molecular biotech stocks like pacific edge can and often do go from preliminary sales levels as at present to being a profitable company within a single reporting period. That’s because they tend to have low volume high margin business models. Once they get to a point on the plan with one or more commercial agreements in place they then become profitable companies.

Analyst estimates are for profitability to occur between HY16 and FY17.

At reporting time most shareholders just wish to assess progress toward that point based on the commentary provided, affirmation of the five year goal, progress on specific CMS and HMO negotiations, and an outlook for the coming year.

Pacific Edge are on track IMO, like most shareholders, I’m looking for a confirmation of progress within this report as a six monthly check.

No one is trying to convince you to invest, do as you may choose, many like Miner and myself are just here to share analysis and research. However, if you are just look for a quick buck off the back of a half year report, well then, good luck to you.