PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Ginger_steps_]

It pays to take history into account as well in cases like these. I remember the incredible hype surrounding the obesity pill market in the USA in 2011 & 2012. Arena Pharmaceuticals shot up after FDA approval with Belviq, then promptly tanked and has NEVER recovered as sales have since then been much less than expected. Vivus was next with Qysimia, which again shot up on FDA approval... then tanked... and never recovered. These companies are still yet to be profitable, even with a massive potential market, being US based and despite HUGE marketting schemes for their products.

Point is, the hype and excitement phase was great, but it never lasts. PEB needs to start delivering, and delivering WELL ABOVE ITS WEIGHT. If it cannot, this company will be another VVUS or ARNA, no matter what MAC says and not matter how many DCF models he makes.

ARNA chart: https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=...=on&z=l&q=l&c=

VVUS chart: https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=VVUS&t=5y

Read carefully:

IT IS NOT DIFFERENT THIS TIME!!!!

Ummmm...... your basing your argument on stocks that rose on FDA approval against a company that doesn't require FDA approval? Weight loss drugs against cancer detection tests? Talk about comparing apples with monkeys!!! Starting to sound like a 15 year old that thinks he has the world figured out there BFG. My guess is that you googled biotech stocks that crashed and kindly shared your search results with us. Why not type in biotech stocks that boomed and offer some objectivity in your argument? Or for a little relevance in your argument - biotech cancer detection stocks.

[Minerbarejet]

I'm guessing 127 tests in the US that have been paid for.

Roflmao gee dentie you sure know how to hurt a guy. Less tests than the previous 6 months, hahahah

[Dentie]

Roflmao gee dentie you sure know how to hurt a guy. Less tests than the previous 6 months, hahahah

I just allowed myself to be influenced by Snapiti ....

[winner69]

When is the big day anyway

If commentary really fantastic will need to be quick off the mark.

If not so good no rush as a few days or so to go sub 60 again before another trade?

[skid]

Ummmm...... your basing your argument on stocks that rose on FDA approval against a company that doesn't require FDA approval? Weight loss drugs against cancer detection tests? Talk about comparing apples with monkeys!!! Starting to sound like a 15 year old that thinks he has the world figured out there BFG. My guess is that you googled biotech stocks that crashed and kindly shared your search results with us. Why not type in biotech stocks that boomed and offer some objectivity in your argument? Or for a little relevance in your argument - biotech cancer detection stocks.

I think Snaps has mentioned a few that have boomed--how does PEB compare to them. I guess comparing PEB to a hep c cure drug and an Aids control drug is not really compareing Apples with Apples (but I think that was his point)

[couta1]

NMP22 FDA approved or not compared to Peb is still the B game, cheers

[skid]

Hi Kild,

Large professional investors and the market generally understand how molecular biotech business models work, the strategic plan for the commercialisation of their products, and they know that early sales are relatively meaningless within such a plan.

Early random sales achieved, whilst engaging and training sales staff, and establishing a contact base for much more lucrative user programme roll overs, are certainly not an indicator of progress, nor are they at all indicative of a stock’s valuation.

A read of these links may serve you well, there is a methodology applied by analysts in valuing biotech stocks,

https://www.deloitte.com/view/en_us/...42f00aRCRD.htm

http://www.investopedia.com/articles...hvaluation.asp

Genuinely hope this assists you

kind regards, Mac

Then why are you ,along with all the others, sitting on the edge of your seat waiting for the sales figures to come out?

No matter how you fell about a company you cannot disregard the PRICE it costs to become a part owner--someone who buys at .65 is just as much a part owner as someone who bought at 1.75 (maybe more because they would have more shares for the same money.)

You just cant dismiss it--lets face it ,everyone is waiting for them,and those that have a memory of the last report are not going to dismiss as unimportant the result(whichever way it goes)

Im a bit surprised that even the most avid supporters seem to be preparing for low sales figures though(??)

2 weeks to go(probably) and look at the number of posts....Lets be realistic folks--It may be about Miners posts later--but its about sales now.

[MAC]

Nope, I’m looking forward to hearing about much more important things from Pacific Edge and some progress as to how they are going.

Goal affirmation, timeline for raising the sales force from 8 to 19, launch of the new products, timeline for entry into Asia and the strategy for that, any updates on discussion with prospective partners in Japan and the US for the colorectal and melanoma tests, etc.

Just the important wee things.

[Minerbarejet]

A few figures to mull over.
Snaps figure of lets say 520 over 6 months for ease of management
Gives you an average of 4 tests per day (520/(52*5)= 260 pa / 2 = 130 days *4 = 520
4 tests per day = 20 per week, WORLDWIDE . 40 hour week = 2 hrs per test. Spread over two labs its 4hrs per test

Hershey Lab capacity 200,000pa at 10% of market on a per diem is 770 tests
Thats 37.4 seconds per test
Its also $385,000 per day

4 tests per day, thats one each per day from Multiplan, Americas Choice, Fedmed and Stratose all with huge networks.

At 2 hrs per test there shouldnt be any mistakes.

There is plenty of capacity, cant wait to see them run out.

[Dentie]

Then why are you ,along with all the others, sitting on the edge of your seat waiting for the sales figures to come out?

No matter how you fell about a company you cannot disregard the PRICE it costs to become a part owner--someone who buys at .65 is just as much a part owner as someone who bought at 1.75 (maybe more because they would have more shares for the same money.)

You just cant dismiss it--lets face it ,everyone is waiting for them,and those that have a memory of the last report are not going to dismiss as unimportant the result(whichever way it goes)

Im a bit surprised that even the most avid supporters seem to be preparing for low sales figures though(??)

2 weeks to go(probably) and look at the number of posts....Lets be realistic folks--It may be about Miners posts later--but its about sales now.

I don't agree with your generalisations here Skid. Not everyone is sitting on the edge of their seats.

I reckon the only ones who are sitting that way are the ones who have the sole intention of trying to make some quick dosh. They are otherwise known as speculators (or traders) and are not at all interested in the good work the company is doing. Most of these participants would be equally happy on the racecourse, or in Sky City or just plain old lotto. I certainly don’t see them as “part owners” of the business and, in my view, don’t deserve to be on the balance sheet.


To be totally honest, I couldn’t care less what the sales figures are in a couple of weeks’ time and I dare say most of the REAL “part owners” of the company probably feel the same way – hence the long term stability at the top end of the shareholders list.


As a REAL part owner of PEB – from a business perspective, I am more than happy with where things are currently at and, if the gamblers start unloading – I’ll be happy to help the others absorb those shares.


However, if the “science” or “intellectual property” starts falling apart – or if there is some crazy decision making by those that matter…then that will be another story.