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  1. #1011
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    Totally agree sparky - I'm personally excited by the tailor made user programs for the large clients:

    User Programs are operating in Australia, NZ and the U.S. The extent of the programme is in excess of 2,000 tests in aggregate. Some have successfully completed, validating the utility of Cxbladder in the clinical pathway. Pacific Edge anticipates that a significant proportion of successfully completed User Programs will convert into commercial relationships.
    And something concrete for the US

    Five new User Programs have been initiated with large urology groups in the U.S. with the tests being processed in the PED USA laboratory


    Hoping the price will stay low for a bit longer so I can top up with a few more.

    Cheers,
    Andy

  2. #1012
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    Quote Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown View Post
    55c is a gift, in my opinion. If I hadn't picked up a lot in the early 20s, I'd be buying a bit now.
    assuming they have the ability to generate sales....it will be harder than they think

  3. #1013
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    You do have a genuine longer term concern Schrodinger, I imagine we will see if this risk mitigates somewhat at the end of year sales announcement.

    In the meantime have you done any DCF on PEB ?.

    I recommend that you do so as to assess the risk/reward position. I hope you will be pleased with the numbers.

    I am a happy holder today.

  4. #1014
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    Quote Originally Posted by Schrodinger View Post
    assuming they have the ability to generate sales....it will be harder than they think
    PEB's publications suggest to me that their approach to the sales side has been robust and cautious; they have been building a solid platform and establishing a reputation, now moving steadily to capitalise on that. I see a lot more concrete foundation than shiny façade so far.

    Can you offer some insight into why you feel they are underestimating the challenges? Genuinely interested in a reality check if I have been reading all the news with my pink glasses on.

  5. #1015
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    Great to see the company keeping shareholders updated.

    I would expect the conclusion of a successful negotiation with Medicare/Medicald would be a real positive.

    Although there is a lot of work to be done in making sure the urologists are confident in using cxbladder, the good thing is that there is quite a barrier to new competition. From day one PEB have made sure the science is top notch and that should pay off in the long run.

  6. #1016
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    Quote Originally Posted by majorbarejet View Post
    a bit like a rocket launch - a lot of noise at the start and nothing much happening then slowly bit by bit it lifts off accelerating away into the stratosphere and beyond. Alas, some passengers will decide to get off before liftoff, some will jump if it gets too high and others will stay with it into orbit. They will get into a capsule and return to earth with many a tale to tell once they are satisfied with the view.
    Life on the Edge
    T-17 days. Great stuff. All aboard

  7. #1017
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    Quote Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown View Post
    Well, if it all comes a cropper, you will need to explain to loved ones that you listened to someone called "Sparky the Clown" on the internet....
    To me it seems far safer to listen to a clown, a moose and a galloping major than my parents' share broker or other paid advisors.

    When I was first working Dad took me to see his broker and following his advice I invested $100 in each of two companies - Watties and Winstones. Both promptly dropped through the floor. 6 or 7 years later when we were scrapping all barrels to put windows in our house I sold them for much the same price as I bought them for.

    Later there was our AMP insurance advisor with his Managed Fund. Naturally this was the start of a recession. In 1995, after a number of years where it failed to meet expectations, we sold out to fund our overseas trip.

    Then in 2006 I approached my parents' share broker again with A Plan. Buy $2,000 worth of shares in each of 4 companies starting with my pick - Rymans. That one worked but his recommendation of Sky City as a second one.... immediately dropped in value, fell further in the recession and still not back to what I paid for them. I wasn't certain on his advice so only bought $500 worth.

    Learning curve: Their watch list was useful and my having made contact with them meant they were helpful when Dad passed away and his shares went to Mum, but the broker's fee ($75 per transaction) isn't worth it for low value transactions. And I'm not sure who's side they are on when it comes to share transactions.

    Plan B is now $3,000 per company using an on-line broker ($30 per transaction) and getting advice from Clowns. Much safer

  8. #1018
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    I really hope they succeed, but I am cautious as there are alot of vested interests in the US market that wont like being shunted aside for a 'new' thing. The larger firms have tremendous lobbying power and will be impossible to fight unless you work with them.

    If PEB gets a good partner this will reduce the risk for me, but the US is a funny market and very hard for NZ companies to crack. If they intend to sell the things themselves I see two risks:

    1. They need really good sales people and strategies. The top sales guys are usually working for other guys so how do they get these people.
    2. I am unsure they know the health purchasing environment in the US. Maybe I didnt read the right info but it wont be a case of just rocking up with the product and leaving with a suitcase of cash. The US market doesnt work like that.


    By all means invest, but be aware they may grow significanlty slower than forecast.
    Last edited by Schrodinger; 13-06-2013 at 12:00 PM.

  9. #1019
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    So they dont have any financial modelling behind their US expansion? I find that hard to believe. They must have a target in mind for the expansion because they need to have a budget i.e capital management plans...

    Thanks for the good points Sparky. Fingers crossed and I will watch with interest!

  10. #1020
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    Quote Originally Posted by moosie_900 View Post
    lol, thanks for the story. I usually do the opposite of what brokers say (especially the huge ones like Goldmans and JP Morgan). ...
    Well whilst I didn't expect them to jump to attention and spends hours analysing a good investment for either $200 or $2,000 I do think they could have paid a little more attention considering my parents' portfolio:

    - The first time to encourage a new investor with family history
    - The second time as it is highly likely that one day within the next decade I will inherit half of it - and they do have a copy of the power of attorney for mum and it is becoming increasingly likely that my brother and I will have to use it.

    The first advice put me off shares for years (went into property instead), the second off relying on their advice and seeking alternative ways of investing (on-line brokers)

    The feeling I was left with is that Brokers Fees are far more important than advice like "before you do this consider the economy cycle, it is reasonably likely there will be a significant correction coming soon. Maybe hold off for a bit?"

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