PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[MAC]

It's more nuanced than that. CMS coverage is synonymous with free cashflows I think. The question is whether that will happen in the near future (next 6 months) and how likely are further CRs. Timing is a factor. Is it riskier to stay out and miss CMS coverage or to be in and eventually get diluted?

I don't know Casino, I'm already in and comfortable, I guess that becomes your own decision.

You might take some comfort from Pacific Edge having already got as far with CMS as being a listed provider and having been given the nod to be able to stack invoices awaiting acceptance.

On the HY analyst conference call David Darling seemed quite relaxed about the time frame, perhaps because Pacific Edge intrinsically have internal confidence and are accumulating those invoices anyway. He basically said that they are working with CMS who are accumulating a portfolio of clinical validity, something I'm sure they do for all new diagnostic tests.

My personal view, and your own view is welcome too, but it seems to me that the performance of the test is all good, but it's just new and CMS know that Pacific Edge have two more US based clinical studies about to come to fruition.

If I was CMS I would wait for those two studies also, just because they can, and for Pacific Edge, as long as they can keep stacking up those invoices, they probably are not all that concerned about the timing, price point will be important to them though, another reason not to rush/push CMS.

I'd leave it to the traders to say if or how much the SP would jump on such an announcement, can't help with that or whether it's better to go before or instead to try and catch the boing.

Anyway, I wish yourself and all who have constructive all the best for the jolly season !

[skid]

Yeah, that's what folk say isn’t it 'no risk no reward', and I would agree that some companies do carry binary risk at the time of their inception, at some point though along the road to commercialisation that binary nature falls away and it becomes more a matter of degrees of efficacy and sensitivity analysis around that though wouldn't you say ?

If one invested in Pacific Edge three years ago at a defined point on the risk reward curve, a higher point than at present, then yes the risk was greater, and well yes so was the reward.

Over those three years the following significant de-risking events have been satisfied, and some minor ones in addition too;

> Clinical trials
> Laboratory approvals
> US CLIA regulatory approvals
> Clinical setting user programmes
> Full capitalisation

And, the share price over those three years elevated in response from 20c too, well quite an undervalued 84c at the present today (+320%).

Looking forward, the next few major de-risking events in the sequence IMO would seem to be;

> Final CMS acceptance (some clinicians may treat this as a badge of confidence)
> KP user programme roll over (the first one is important as a demonstration model for others)
> Profitability (FY16 according to the analysts)

However, as a matter of note, there is now also the matter of diversification through the development of further products, further de-risking in itself, Cxcolorectal being market ready, the melanoma product still in trials but a companion partner could come along at any time going forward too.

I think you may be oversimplifying this Mac.
Surely there would have been more risk last Feb.-If you want to throw % around then the SP is approx 100% less now.

The point is ,there are other factors at work in terms of developing a product and selling it (and the markets in general)

Hancocks; and you as well have done a wonderful job of researching the product(and full credits to the Otago scientists)

But that does not necessarily mean that either of you know about the marketing side of things--(in that sense, Hancock"s 10 yrs of research does not definitely mean he knows completely the risk -reward factor) It means he and you know the product-- But do you know much about marketing and the mood of the market?

I believe that is why you have both homed completely into the product side of things in terms of the comparison.

We could get into a debate on which product has taken the most lab work and research or which is best for man kind --but without taking into account the marketing strategy its not the full equation.

I think ,in a nutshell PEB is about the product(and hoping that if trails are passed it will sell itself) and NAN is about marketing strategy (so in that sense they are very different)

You can trash the product all you want ,but there is no getting around the fact that NAN has a much bigger market at this time.

As has been suggested ,this could change in the near future ...but we are now.

[Dentie]

can you point me in the right direction for this info as the statements I have read from the company do not mention that the user program is for triage
www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/254465

Look at page three of this Snapiti...http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/assets/...-17Dec2014.pdf

Merry Xmas!

[Minerbarejet]

So a change of tact.... now pushing cx bladder triage in user programs......
This all makes sense after previous user programs with cx bladder detect did not result in the roll over paid use of the product they where hoping for.
Criky I hope they don't shelve cx bladder detect.

Well that pretty well sums it up for the year. Im off to a summer decyphering course next week so I can participate more fully on the PEB thread. The rest of the time I will be rebuilding my brick wall.
Merry Christmas everyone and Happy New Year

[skid]

Merry Christmas to you too and to all ,and lets hope 2015 makes us all happy.

[golden city]

let's hope some good news comming after new year..

[klid]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/6468...e-christchurch

I take interest at the first building and the the wording around that:

"1. Forte Health: Last year began with the official opening of Christchurch's newest private hospital, Forte Health, in January. The "glass-encased fortress" on Kilmore St is the Oxford Clinic's offspring, and targets short-stay, less complex procedures from ear, nose and throat, urology, orthopaedic and gynaecology specialties. All of Christchurch's urologists, almost all of its ear, nose and throat surgeons and at least half of its orthopaedic surgeons are understood to be shareholders in the multimillion-dollar venture."

Seems like these urologists are a tight bunch?

[klid]

Didn't mean to incite disorder

[winner69]

Didn't mean to incite disorder

Was an interesting debate while it lasted.

Wrong thread obviously

[Whipmoney]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/6468...e-christchurch

I take interest at the first building and the the wording around that:

"1. Forte Health: Last year began with the official opening of Christchurch's newest private hospital, Forte Health, in January. The "glass-encased fortress" on Kilmore St is the Oxford Clinic's offspring, and targets short-stay, less complex procedures from ear, nose and throat, urology, orthopaedic and gynaecology specialties. All of Christchurch's urologists, almost all of its ear, nose and throat surgeons and at least half of its orthopaedic surgeons are understood to be shareholders in the multimillion-dollar venture."

Seems like these urologists are a tight bunch?

I think that's because most of Christchurch's urologists work for Urology Associates.. Co-investing makes sense.