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  1. #11231
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapiti View Post
    .
    I wish all investors the best with this one but think anyone who treats it any different to any other high risk investment is foolish.
    Personally have had enough of the nonsense on this thread and find it rather frustrating that some repetitive posters make out that this stock is a home run.......even when the CEO is recently on record saying it is a speculative stock........don't forget he has sold down a big portion of his holdings.
    This should speak louder than the repetitive rose tinted comments you read on here.
    Snaps will be taking no further part on this thread.
    Agree with you there snap ; its a shame you're not staying around and stamping on those rose tinted glasses; the same ones that spoke in the same repetitive (follow me for home runs)way promoting CRP . easy to be generous with other peoples moneys. Still a lesson to those who like to follow. Fool me once shame on you fool me twice shame on me. I bailed on PEB a good whiles back but hold a very small residual holding as it sure is highly spekky atp.

  2. #11232
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    Personally, I think we may very well possibly look back on that five year goal as having been really quite understated. [Quote]

    So your happy to agree with Forbar on the positive statements ,but disagree on their more cautious statements(extending to 6 yrs)

    OK, noted

    I think,though, you may have a habit of counting your chickens before they hatch--Kaiser Permanente is by no means an exclusive partnership at this stage--you will need a few more announcements before that assumption becomes reality--clinical studies-yes---Then they will make a decision on what is best for them.(price is yet to be determined as far as i know)


    -It should be noted ,for those who are just joining -that you,Mac-were calling this share ''undervalued'' way back when it was at its High @ $1.70---doesnt mean you are wrong this time around,but..
    Last edited by skid; 15-02-2015 at 11:02 AM.

  3. #11233
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    MAC, why do you have $5 as a price target in 5 years? Assuming that and current shares on offer (ie no more dilution) that gives the company an MCap of $1.5B (NZD) with revenue of $125M (NZD using current fx rate) and a PS ratio of about 12.

    Do you therefore think PEB will still be growing at p.a. rate of 130%+ even at those lofty levels (130/10-1= PS ratio of 12)?

    What are your margin assumptions as well for $100M (USD revenue)? EPS? I want to see what PE ratio you are giving PEB at that stage.

  4. #11234
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    Well yes there is the prospect of a commercial agreement with Kaiser Permanente, and David Darling told us on the HY conference call that they didn’t yet know what form of agreement it would take. It’s the first one of its kind I guess and both parties will need to feel that out.

    However my impression and understanding Skid is that the big benefit from the work they are mutually doing together, and the prospective outcome too, is the demonstration it will provide to the sector.

    Those 109 urologists are foremost healthcare people and they live to find better treatments for the patients they sit with day in day out and have empathy with. I’m sure the patients tell them quite regularly that they don’t really enjoy being probed every three months too.

    And for the two companies they may each take something out of it commercially.

    Kaiser Permanente may well get to unburden their clinical staff, probing people costs money but is also time consuming for the professionals involved, the urologists, the nurses the facility support staff, not to mention the burden on booking surgical rooms. There is also an increasing shortage of Urologists in the US. This is where the one third reduction in work up costs comes in.

    They also get to recognise potentially the new applications of Cxbladder that have not been possible until now. For example, it’s not possible to probe and look for upper tract cancers, and Cxbladder is the first diagnostic product to come along to actually offer reliable diagnosis of them. There are a lot of such value propositions that we could chat about all day.

    And of course in addition to all that they may get the opportunity to back away from invasive probing which carries a litigation risk each time.

  5. #11235
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    Quote Originally Posted by MAC View Post
    Well yes there is the prospect of a commercial agreement with Kaiser Permanente, and David Darling told us on the HY conference call that they didn’t yet know what form of agreement it would take. It’s the first one of its kind I guess and both parties will need to feel that out.

    However my impression and understanding Skid is that the big benefit from the work they are mutually doing together, and the prospective outcome too, is the demonstration it will provide to the sector.

    Those 109 urologists are foremost healthcare people and they live to find better treatments for the patients they sit with day in day out and have empathy with. I’m sure the patients tell them quite regularly that they don’t really enjoy being probed every three months too.

    And for the two companies they may each take something out of it commercially.

    Kaiser Permanente may well get to unburden their clinical staff, probing people costs money but is also time consuming for the professionals involved, the urologists, the nurses the facility support staff, not to mention the burden on booking surgical rooms. There is also an increasing shortage of Urologists in the US. This is where the one third reduction in work up costs comes in.

    They also get to recognise potentially the new applications of Cxbladder that have not been possible until now. For example, it’s not possible to probe and look for upper tract cancers, and Cxbladder is the first diagnostic product to come along to actually offer reliable diagnosis of them. There are a lot of such value propositions that we could chat about all day.

    And of course in addition to all that they may get the opportunity to back away from invasive probing which carries a litigation risk each time.

    Your putting words in kaiser Permanentes mouth

    Do you believe they always have the best intentions?

    http://inthesetimes.com/working/entr..._kaiser_strike

    http://khon2.com/2015/02/02/kaiser-p...-day-strike-2/

  6. #11236
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    Quote Originally Posted by MAC View Post
    And yet there is healthy profitable market that has been in place for 10 years !

    Until this new Cxbladder test came along all bladder cancer diagnostic tests were inferior to Cytology, what Pacific Edge have done is to break through that barrier with a new technology.

    And that now offers the prospect of much much greater policy adoption from LUGs, HMOs and yes also by the Urological Association over time.

    It’s a five year plan, and the first step is to partner and work with one of the large HMOs, which is exactly what Pacific Edge are doing with Kaiser Permanente, they have clinical studies underway with them and also a 2,000 test user programme.

    It’s takes an insitu clinical demonstration to drive policy change, and doing so with a large well recognised company like Kaiser Permanente with 109 of their own in-house urologists is a very good move by Pacific Edge.

    That change is not required for Pacific Edge to meet their goal, but the shear potential over time if they do is just simply enormous, and they are positioned to take advantage if or when it occurs.

    Personally, I think we may very well possibly look back on that five year goal as having been really quite understated.
    Hi MAC,

    You ripped the above words out of my mouth - nice one!! However, it has been apparent to me for some time, this is a waste of time and effort on here. You, Miner and Hancocks in particular have done a sterling job in presenting the facts - which I for one thank you all for and have learnt so much about the technical side of things. I have been INVESTED in PEB since 2008/09 with Hancocks and yourself being INVESTED a lot longer than that.

    It has dawned on me that "the INVESTED Bull's" have been unwittingly sucked into trying to justify why we are involved in PEB .... by "those others" (who will remain nameless) but are all so glaring obvious by their comments. All that has been achieved by the likes of Hancocks, yourself and Miner etc is the "filling in of the gaps" for "those others".

    I have never believed PEB is a trading stock to date - and have stated as much more than once on here (it is still not yet one, IMVHO!!). I was immediately attacked by "those others" - who stated "I have been happily trading PEB ... blah, blah, blah". I believe it was these "traders" who pushed the SP up to those silly heights - including "those others" - and then the more experienced of "those others" eventually sold their shareholding - until they had none. Good luck to them.

    The point of this particular tirade is this....

    "Those others" have never been INVESTED in PEB. They have clearly seen PEB as one of those perfect "speculative" growth stocks. They have researched what the company does, its market, its future, its undervalued SP etc etc etc and come in - made as much as they could before the market even looks like maturing and then taken all their money off the table. They are opportunistic TRADERS (for want of a more appropriate word), who scalp and manipulate (etc) their way to grabbing as much $$$ as quickly as possible. PEB is just a vehicle for them to do this. They no doubt do the same play with other firms who are just trying to develop their business model.

    Once (and ONLY after) they have got ALL their dosh off the table, "those others" then start with their smug, sanctimonious and know-it-all comments about how silly the rest of us are and how PEB (in this case) is not going to succeed because of a lack of marketing and selling & this and that etc. I just feel sorry for those less experienced INVESTORS & other newbies (the fodder of "those others") who are venturing into equities as an alternative investing platform to bank deposits.

    I have read this thread along the way ... and I've never seen the recent comments by "those others", while they still had their money on the table. Words like "Legend", "Guru" and the like are inconsistent with the comments from "those others". In fact they are a joke ... and can be very misleading.

    Meanwhile...PEB is just going on with developing their business model. Whether their FY15 revenue is $100,000...$500,000...$3m...or $10m - I'll still be there as a true INVESTOR and what will be will be.

  7. #11237
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    Hi Moosie, thought you were banned, welcome back to you then.

    My present base case valuation for Cxbladder(detect) is $1.85, that pretty much is mid-range of Edison’s sensitivity analysis now they’ve provided their report too. I’m comfortable with that on the basis I made back in August last year, nothing has substantially altered since then and I haven’t yet valued the other Cxbladder products without further information.

    http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr....85#post499894

    But to answer your question, it’s a very low capital company once the labs are built and the assay software has been developed, and they are well through that stage. COGS really now just comprises of lab and sales staff and associated overhead. Pacific Edge, and Forbar & Edison, tell us that gross margins are circa 80%.

    There is a lot of upside potential beyond all that though, within that five year plan we may also quite possibly see the gastric, melanoma and colorectal products coming to the market each with their own gross margins.

    And as per discussion today, if Pacific Edge over time can make the RNA diagnostic tests a little more mainstream, and there is a strong Obamacare tailwind for that change, then they may be looking at a goal much larger than just 10%, could be 20 or 30%, who really knows at this time.

    But as I say, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they are a $5 stock within a few years if even just some of that potential comes into play.

    It’s way too early to look at PE ratio’s, that’s more a matter for cyclical stocks, and with the pipeline Pacific Edge have they may very well be remain a growth company for several years yet. The PE ratio in five years will depend on how many products they have in the market at that time.

  8. #11238
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dentie View Post
    Hi MAC,

    You ripped the above words out of my mouth - nice one!! However, it has been apparent to me for some time, this is a waste of time and effort on here. You, Miner and Hancocks in particular have done a sterling job in presenting the facts - which I for one thank you all for and have learnt so much about the technical side of things. I have been INVESTED in PEB since 2008/09 with Hancocks and yourself being INVESTED a lot longer than that.

    It has dawned on me that "the INVESTED Bull's" have been unwittingly sucked into trying to justify why we are involved in PEB .... by "those others" (who will remain nameless) but are all so glaring obvious by their comments. All that has been achieved by the likes of Hancocks, yourself and Miner etc is the "filling in of the gaps" for "those others".

    I have never believed PEB is a trading stock to date - and have stated as much more than once on here (it is still not yet one, IMVHO!!). I was immediately attacked by "those others" - who stated "I have been happily trading PEB ... blah, blah, blah". I believe it was these "traders" who pushed the SP up to those silly heights - including "those others" - and then the more experienced of "those others" eventually sold their shareholding - until they had none. Good luck to them.

    The point of this particular tirade is this....

    "Those others" have never been INVESTED in PEB. They have clearly seen PEB as one of those perfect "speculative" growth stocks. They have researched what the company does, its market, its future, its undervalued SP etc etc etc and come in - made as much as they could before the market even looks like maturing and then taken all their money off the table. They are opportunistic TRADERS (for want of a more appropriate word), who scalp and manipulate (etc) their way to grabbing as much $$$ as quickly as possible. PEB is just a vehicle for them to do this. They no doubt do the same play with other firms who are just trying to develop their business model.

    Once (and ONLY after) they have got ALL their dosh off the table, "those others" then start with their smug, sanctimonious and know-it-all comments about how silly the rest of us are and how PEB (in this case) is not going to succeed because of a lack of marketing and selling & this and that etc. I just feel sorry for those less experienced INVESTORS & other newbies (the fodder of "those others") who are venturing into equities as an alternative investing platform to bank deposits.

    I have read this thread along the way ... and I've never seen the recent comments by "those others", while they still had their money on the table. Words like "Legend", "Guru" and the like are inconsistent with the comments from "those others". In fact they are a joke ... and can be very misleading.

    Meanwhile...PEB is just going on with developing their business model. Whether their FY15 revenue is $100,000...$500,000...$3m...or $10m - I'll still be there as a true INVESTOR and what will be will be.
    YOU took the words right of my mouth! Be that as it may, there is no way you could not have classified this as a trading stock over late 2013/early 2014 when traders made a bucket load going up and down the curve on massive volume. The entire stock was played very nicely to a double-top conclusion as well on thin air, a hallmark of "traders be trading" and "castles in the air". DD say the irrationality of it all as well by selling up in a timely manner!

    Point is, you may hate us and we may be irrational, be we, more than often, make up the noise that makes you "investors" money (that is, if you don't get too greedy and actually hit the sell button when you realise irrationality is reigning supreme!)

  9. #11239
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    MAC, can you humour me wuth gross margins, EPS and PE ratio regardless? I'd like to see the metrics behind your statement.

    Nothing more, nothing less. I'm all for clear and concise opinions backed up with stats

  10. #11240
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moosie View Post
    YOU took the words right of my mouth! Be that as it may, there is no way you could not have classified this as a trading stock over late 2013/early 2014 when traders made a bucket load going up and down the curve on massive volume. The entire stock was played very nicely to a double-top conclusion as well on thin air, a hallmark of "traders be trading" and "castles in the air". DD say the irrationality of it all as well by selling up in a timely manner!

    Point is, you may hate us and we may be irrational, be we, more than often, make up the noise that makes you "investors" money (that is, if you don't get too greedy and actually hit the sell button when you realise irrationality is reigning supreme!)
    You seemed to have completely missed my point Moosie (& welcome back BTW).

    I personally have never seen PEB as a trading stock - ever! Yes - there is no doubt you traders caused the 2013/14 surge by plaguing PEB's stock with your ridiculous trading activity - but that does not make it a trading stock. Your (type's) activity simply makes this innocent, fledgling & well meaning business nothing more than a financial whorehouse (perhaps a casino is a better word?) and your above comments do nothing but validate my comments.

    Whether it is fundamentally right or not doesn't matter, your "type's" couldn't give a toss about a company's business and what they might be trying to achieve in the world...for you lot, it is all about making "a bucket load" of money - whatever way you can and as quickly as you can. IMHO, traders (or rampant speculators) can be blamed for wrecking not only one company - but potentially a whole stock exchange with ridiculous SP valuations...all based on greed.

    It worries me that we have "irrational" (your word) speculators playing around in the financial markets - for obvious reasons. For clarity - just look at the "trader" from Milford who the FMA are investigating ...how many more are there out there?

    Off topic a bit...but did you know "irrational" traders (or speculators) control 97% of the world currency markets? Think how they might be able to "manipulate" a country's currency...or their stock exchanges!

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