PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Dentie]

MAC, can you humour me wuth gross margins, EPS and PE ratio regardless? I'd like to see the metrics behind your statement.

Nothing more, nothing less. I'm all for clear and concise opinions backed up with stats

Like you were when your loyal followers followed you to SNK ...oh, then Balance came along and ruined it all!

[MAC]

I would love too, but I think you may find that no analyst would speculate five years ahead, it really does come down to the product mix at that time, and no one yet has that advice.

One must be quite conservative and only confidently value what can be valued from known information, that's why I've only valued Cxbladder(detect) at this time. When we have more information on the other Cxbladder products I'll value and add those on US launch day just like other investors and analysts do.

Cxbladder(triage) and Cxbladder(prognosis) are scheduled to be launched this year in the US. And, downstream it would be a pleasure to add valuations for the pipeline products too if or when they are also launched.

P/S and PE ratios are not recognised as the best measures of growth stock analysis, in fact they are really quite poor, but ok, I'll play hypothetical's, just this once, I'm having a slow weekend with nothing better to do than to post on ST forum, you know.


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Cxbladder(detect) only at FY19 with $100M in revenues and a gross margin of 81% would, conservatively, generate around $50M NPAT, allowing for a little ongoing dilution, an eps of around 0.14

A PE at that time of 35, appropriate for a growth company expanding its Cxbladder products into the market, and also probably concurrently launching pipeline products, would provide for a share price of $5.

I wouldn’t be surprised one bit to see that occur even before five years actually, but I’m content with my FY15 valuation at $1.85 for now, this year.

That’s just Cxbladder(detect) only NPAT and eps at FY19, you would also need to add the NPAT from whatever other products they have in the market place at that time to get any meaningful PE assessment.

[skid]

You seemed to have completely missed my point Moosie (& welcome back BTW).

I personally have never seen PEB as a trading stock - ever! Yes - there is no doubt you traders caused the 2013/14 surge by plaguing PEB's stock with your ridiculous trading activity - but that does not make it a trading stock. Your (type's) activity simply makes this innocent, fledgling & well meaning business nothing more than a financial whorehouse (perhaps a casino is a better word?) and your above comments do nothing but validate my comments.

Whether it is fundamentally right or not doesn't matter, your "type's" couldn't give a toss about a company's business and what they might be trying to achieve in the world...for you lot, it is all about making "a bucket load" of money - whatever way you can and as quickly as you can. IMHO, traders (or rampant speculators) can be blamed for wrecking not only one company - but potentially a whole stock exchange with ridiculous SP valuations...all based on greed.

It worries me that we have "irrational" (your word) speculators playing around in the financial markets - for obvious reasons. For clarity - just look at the "trader" from Milford who the FMA are investigating ...how many more are there out there?

Off topic a bit...but did you know "irrational" traders (or speculators) control 97% of the world currency markets? Think how they might be able to "manipulate" a country's currency...or their stock exchanges!

Is this the same Denty who has taken his capital off the table and is now riding on his ''profits'' (because of those others who got carried away and overvalued the company all the way up to $1.70) all those horrible 'traders'' who caused all that profit?---Sad

[skid]

I would love too, but I think you may find that no analyst would speculate five years ahead, it really does come down to the product mix at that time, and no one yet has that advice.

One must be quite conservative and only confidently value what can be valued from known information, that's why I've only valued Cxbladder(detect) at this time. When we have more information on the other Cxbladder products I'll value and add those on US launch day just like other investors and analysts do.

Cxbladder(triage) and Cxbladder(prognosis) are scheduled to be launched this year in the US. And, downstream it would be a pleasure to add valuations for the pipeline products too if or when they are also launched.

P/S and PE ratios are not recognised as the best measures of growth stock analysis, in fact they are really quite poor, but ok, I'll play hypothetical's, just this once, I'm having a slow weekend with nothing better to do than to post on ST forum, you know.


------------------------------------

Cxbladder(detect) only at FY19 with $100M in revenues and a gross margin of 81% would, conservatively, generate around $50M NPAT, allowing for a little ongoing dilution, an eps of around 0.14

A PE at that time of 35, appropriate for a growth company expanding its Cxbladder products into the market, and also probably concurrently launching pipeline products, would provide for a share price of $5.

I wouldn’t be surprised one bit to see that occur even before five years actually, but I’m content with my FY15 valuation at $1.85 for now, this year.

That’s just Cxbladder(detect) only NPAT and eps at FY19, you would also need to add the NPAT from whatever other products they have in the market place at that time to get any meaningful PE assessment.

Noted...Ive noticed that you dont put any disclaimer on you predictions,like ''this is not to be taken as investment advice''--What will you say to those new investors if you drastically miss your mark?
Actually,what do you have to say to those who invested @$1.70 after reading your posts?

I think we should be more careful with that sort of thing...

[MAC]

Thanks Dentie, I don’t mind a debate when the threads quiet and when I’ve time, pretty much house bound this weekend for reasons I won’t bore you with.

The interesting thing about growth stocks on this forum is that they attract a lot of opinion because people look at the risk and reward and like to debate both, but very often they just look at the risk in isolation.

A minority are mindless trolls, one or two seem to be one blue smiley away from a strait jacket, a few are just short termer's trying fruitlessly to make a quick buck by scaring newbies into selling their hard earned investments. But, most everyone knows whom they are and largely have long since devalued their opinions I think.

I don’t mind debating with bulls, or bears like Skid, respectfully hope that’s ok with you Skid being a bear, there is sometimes a fair debate to be had, amongst all the immature noise.

It all helps folk, present company included, to reconcile their investments or prospective investments and form their ‘each to their own’ outcomes based on their own investment strategy and risk/reward tolerance generally in life.

[MAC]

I see occasionally some folk do put a disclaimer up, but oh I think really it’s reasonably implicit that no one should take investment advice from what one reads on the internet.

It’s good to share thoughts and views though, analysis too at times, and snippets that come from correspondence with the company and other organisations within their market (offline).

I’ve been researching Pacific Edge for only three years actually and it can be a tough one, there’s not really a lot to be googled.

It does seem that Pacific Edge have done the right thing by shareholders in engaging Edison and in working with Forbar openly too I think, even though I don’t fully agree with some of their conservatism.

That’s where folk should go in the first instance if they are new to Pacific Edge.

[skid]

Im not a total bear,Mac--but yes atm Im cautious. I do however try to stay reasonably civil and question things in a hopefully reasonable manner.
You guys may have noticed that i dont rule out the fact that PEB may be successful in the future--I could go on about the SP crashing down back to .65,but that wouldnt be constructive and probably not that likely.

I dont support the ''in at all cost'' frame of mind--I found that ,for me it worked better to sell,if things were looking scarey(self preservation)with the frame of mind that one can always buy back in latter --not so much about making money,but more not losing it.

Now its really a matter of interest only as im invested elsewhere--but if it did go sub 70 Id have to consider.

I believe the flow of information in the last few days is food for thought--You pick out the bits that seem right for you.

None of it though should be taken as gospel investment advice...cheers

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Traders need volatility. Has been a pretty volatile stock over the years. Hmm, must be a good trading stock eh?

[skid]

Traders need volatility. Has been a pretty volatile stock over the years. Hmm, must be a good trading stock eh?

Ha Ha..Hold your fire!.....

Meanwhile im not saying anything one way or the other but there is a slight possibility this lot could be brutal when it comes to bargaining a deal if it comes to it

just potentially a small piece to the puzzle
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/2...at-woeful-care

(I was actually trying to find out about their clinical trials when this came along)

[Dentie]

Is this the same Denty who has taken his capital off the table and is now riding on his ''profits'' (because of those others who got carried away and overvalued the company all the way up to $1.70) all those horrible 'traders'' who caused all that profit?---Sad

Dear oh dear ....

Firstly, "Investors" are quite capable of creating a profit too Skid. The difference is, it is created by using the good fundamentals of the business - not the fresh air type created by greed or hype. Yes, it may be slower, but it is a good genuine and sustainable profit that creates confidence in the business and hence - a stable supply and demand curve.

Secondly, I have learned my lessons and only taken my capital off the table and left the profit INVESTED in the PEB business (which is where it will stay). You see...this is the critical difference Skid...the TRADERS have taken everything off the table (capital & maybe a bit of profit ... or just some $$$...after broker's commission & tax of course!!). Greed versus investment.

As you say ... each to their own.