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  1. #11291
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    Quote Originally Posted by MAC View Post
    Many, well most really, might suggest that trying to predict the long term success of a company is entirely about business efficacy.
    You arrogate majority support for your opinion.

    Trying to predict the long term success of any company from a chart is about as foretelling as rolling chicken bones.
    Asseveration.

    The evaluation of likely business success is about the intrinsic matters, evaluation of competitiveness, market analysis, technology, strategy, capitalisation, management, forward cashflows, sensitivity analysis, all the important things an entire world full of investors tend to focus on, and well for good reason too.
    Spare me the lecture. I do all that. But I won't bet against the market. If the price is falling the market is telling you something, and it doesn't matter how intelligent you are, or think you are, or how detailed your analysis, there's a good chance you're wrong.

    The market deserves respect.

    Good luck Bunter though with your speculative chart, such things are just squiggly lines on the way to an outcome determined by fundamentals and value.
    The chart doesn't speculate, it's a factual summary.

    For everyone else the analyst reports might be a good place to start.
    See first comment
    Useful information - thanks. I'm skeptical of Edison but I guess it's a start.

  2. #11292
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    Quote Originally Posted by NT001 View Post
    MAC is correct. It's your scenario that's speculative, Bunter, and unrealistic to say the least. PEB is speculative in the sense that its SP may be volatile and there are no guarantees of making a profit from investing in it. Not in the sense that it's going to go belly-up. Even if it were to miss out on getting acceptance by the US health sector of any of the various elements of its cxBladder suite, which would appear highly unlikely, it's got other markets as well, plus melanoma and colorectal, plus IP that would be worth quite a bit to others. It's not like CRP which has only one arrow in its quiver. Okay, TA traders and some short and medium term investors are getting impatient with PEB, and acting accordingly. Biotech shares aren't flavour of the month right now, especially after the recent plethora of IPOs in the IT sector, but if NZ investors won't support PEB, a well-run company in a sector that has a big future, a takeover bid would seem the most probable outcome.
    Ok I think I understand - PEB is not a speculative stock, its future is assured because of all the things listed in this thread. Other views are unrealistic.
    Thanks.

  3. #11293
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    Had a good laugh bunter re your comment that the market deserves respect as though its some sort of angelic entity, yeah right , would this be the same market that took Xro to $45 and then back to $15 hard to respect that kinda schizophrenic behavior. I respect people with integrity in well run companies not the market.

  4. #11294
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Had a good laugh bunter re your comment that the market deserves respect as though its some sort of angelic entity, yeah right , would this be the same market that took Xro to $45 and then back to $15 hard to respect that kinda schizophrenic behavior. I respect people with integrity in well run companies not the market.
    Agree Couta .... it's the same market that took this very stock from circa .40c to $1.50 (odd) in 2 or 3 days!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Had a good laugh bunter re your comment that the market deserves respect as though its some sort of angelic entity, yeah right , would this be the same market that took Xro to $45 and then back to $15 hard to respect that kinda schizophrenic behavior. I respect people with integrity in well run companies not the market.
    Just as well Balance has been banned saying some of those things

  6. #11296
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    Quote Originally Posted by bunter View Post
    Ok I think I understand - PEB is not a speculative stock, its future is assured because of all the things listed in this thread. Other views are unrealistic.
    Thanks.
    Dont mind them Bunter--They are only using 1 arrow in their quiver(the FA arrow) I dont think they understand what TA represents(the psychology of the market place)

  7. #11297
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Had a good laugh bunter re your comment that the market deserves respect as though its some sort of angelic entity, yeah right , would this be the same market that took Xro to $45 and then back to $15 hard to respect that kinda schizophrenic behavior. I respect people with integrity in well run companies not the market.
    It deserves respect because it is the TRUTH about what happened--Its only a reflection of the schizophrenic behavior.

    Since this has happened ,the psychology of the market has changed--When it was at this price on its way up to $45 the market (for Xro)was a very different place (the air crackled with positivity) Its not like that now--each gain in SP has to be fought tooth and nail for---surely you can feel that.
    Think of it this way--your a football team, and the game has been 0-0 - In the last quarter your team score a goal --awesome! your ahead.

    Second scenario-your team was ahead 5-0 then the opposing team starts scoring goals 1..2..3..4 Its now 5-4 your team is still ahead by one goal Its the same situation but the atmosphere is very different-----especially if your thinking about betting.

    The quality of the team is FA The atmosphere the team is playing in is TA (or at least a reflection of it)

    I would venture to guess that the last sales report would have gained more traction when the SP was on the move up a year or so ago.
    Last edited by skid; 17-02-2015 at 08:55 AM.

  8. #11298
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    PS--Balance and Miner had a 3 day ban so should be do back soon (so you wont have to put up with so much me and Mac for to much longer--We both had to much time to kill)
    Last edited by skid; 17-02-2015 at 09:00 AM.

  9. #11299
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    Quote Originally Posted by bunter View Post
    Attachment 7072

    Seems PEB will either succeed or fail.
    If successful, it goes to - what, $1.25? $5?
    If not, it goes lower, maybe to 0.

    To me that's a speculative stock.

    Right now the long term (50/200MA) trend is down.
    The price is below both averages.

    If considering a buy, why not wait until the downtrend is broken?
    If the downtrend is never broken, save 100% of the proposed stake.
    Brave man Bunter...entering the PEB lion cage armed with a chart and some opening subjective words

    Oh dear..the lions didn't see your simple message Bunter offering the best advice that PEBers could ever get ..."don't invest in down trends.. wait"....but hang on..yeah I forgot PEBers don't respect Mr Market nor his charted history.......carry on lions..maul away..

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    The point Bunter is simply that you can’t tell where a company will be in five year’s time from a stock chart, it’s not my point though, it’s the view of the entire international investment community. Its business models and valuation methods that provide such indications.

    No disrespect intended, we all can and do have different views.

    You may wish to consider though that what one does not know about a business model, does not make a company speculative, it may well just mean that one does know enough.

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