PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[skid]

Still got to much time on your hands mac?

[Hoop]

Aww I dunno Hoop - I recall buying into the downtrend at .60 and then .50 2013. Same thing, little news, price drifting lower. The same arguments on the thread re TA and FA. Worked out okay then

Yeah..but you took a big risk to get that big reward..I like to sleep at night knowing that my discipline with a 70+% success rate guarantees me that I will eventually beat the house and win out.....but anyway.... shhhh!!!..Psychic..I made a realised capital gain in 2014 within the overall down trend too... using much safer medium term TA buy/sell signals and patterns...(Except my last PEB sell was a portfolio risk/reward efficiency adjustment. As it happened it worked out OK for Me as PEB eventually lost traction)..

I posted my IN and OUT charts + reasons why.. the last time was on 14 Nov 2014 Post #11218..This chart shows my entire trading history with PEB (2 holdings).. I think everyone would agree that I've done well out of PEB using the squiggly line investing discipline.This would be a successful example that Mr Markets actions should never be dismissed over that of FA and its forward FA tools to predict the future..Investors should use both and if there's a TA/FA discrepancy those investors are alerted and warned to the fact that some sort of future corrective action may occur................When it comes down to the nitty gritty I respect Mr Markets actions .. ..that is the main plank to TA discipline...

I routinely use FA for stock selection, so this post is not a personal TA v FA debate.....Investing is a trade and like all good trade workers they should have the ability to successful use any one of their trade tools in their toolbox.

[MAC]

The sausage machine is here for those interested;

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/products/pipeline/

Of course Winner that would make your rather nice chart a Cxbladder(detect) only chart.

Then one would really need to add charts for Cxbladder(triage), Cxbladder(predict), Cxbladder(health).

And then probably one, more, or all of Cxcolorectal which is market ready, and the melanoma and gastric pipeline products which may well have found companion diagnostic partners by then too, then perhaps add some other potential early stage pipeline products.

It’s like a sausage machine, the first sausage out of the machine finances the next, cranking away, some will be more successful than others, some will have higher margins, some may not launch at all, but the future looks both diversified and really quite bright, lots of smart people making smart products down there in the Dunedin lab, University of Otago also.

Hence the very real possibility of it being more of a $5 looking chart in that timeframe.

[Whipmoney]

Yeah..but you took a big risk to get that big reward..

I like to sleep at night knowing that my discipline with a 70+% success rate guarantees me that I will eventually beat the house and win out.....but anyway.... shhhh!!!..Psychic..I made a realised capital gain in 2014 within the overall down trend too... using much safer medium term TA buy/sell signals and patterns...(Except my last PEB sell was a portfolio risk/reward efficiency adjustment. As it happened it worked out OK for Me as PEB eventually lost traction)..

I posted my IN and OUT charts + reasons why.. the last time was on 14 Nov 2014 Post #11218..This chart shows my entire trading history with PEB (2 holdings).. I think everyone would agree that I've done well out of PEB using the squiggly line investing discipline.This would be a successful example that Mr Markets actions should never be dismissed over that of FA and its forward FA tools to predict the future..Investors should use both and if there's a TA/FA discrepancy those investors are alerted and warned to the fact that some sort of future corrective action may occur................When it comes down to the nitty gritty I respect Mr Markets actions .. ..that is the main plank to TA discipline...

I routinely use FA for stock selection, so this post is not a personal TA v FA debate.....Investing is a trade and like all good trade workers they should have the ability to successful use any one of their trade tools in their toolbox.

Lol this reminds me of the Brian Fantana quote in Anchorman: 60% of the time, it works everytime..

A 70% success rate (on trades/positions) does not guarantee you that you will "beat" the house (whatever the benchmark is..), as one could easily loose more capital in a single (losing) 30% trade/position than they make in aggregate in their 70% successful trades.

[skid]

Does that mean you have better than a 70% success rate whip?

Seems a bit closed minded to ignore something that could potentially help

[winner69]

Of course Winner that would make your rather nice chart a Cxbladder(detect) only chart.

Then one would really need to add charts for Cxbladder(triage), Cxbladder(predict), Cxbladder(health).

And then probably one, more, or all of Cxcolorectal which is market ready, and the melanoma and gastric pipeline products which may well have found companion diagnostic partners by then too, then perhaps add some other potential early stage pipeline products.

It’s like a sausage machine, the first sausage out of the machine finances the next, cranking away, some will be more successful than others, some will have higher margins, some may not launch at all, but the future looks both diversified and really quite bright, lots of smart people making smart products down there in the Dunedin lab, University of Otago also.

Hence the very real possibility of it being more of a $5 looking chart in that timeframe.

Yes same approach as your stated DCF ..... for one product only and then the sausage machine

Who knows how many products we need to add on

Why not aim for $10 bucks

[MAC]

Yes same approach as your stated DCF ..... for one product only and then the sausage machine

Who knows how many products we need to add on

Why not aim for $10 bucks

Well yeah, there's all the potential in the world really,

One thing that gives me some confidence is, well firstly, the fact that management have chosen to appoint the two advisory boards.

It takes humble and focused management to actually relinquish full technological control like that, and perhaps some market analysis focus also, they’re not just making idle decisions around the water cooler, you know, seemingly they have enough quality scientific folk watching over them, although I'm not a scientist and take that a face value.

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/about-u...ific-advisory/

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/about-u...ical-advisory/

I've made the trip down to Dunedin for a couple of AGM's, and it does seem that the feel is that they are really twitching for cashflow to crank that handle, probably from 2016 I think.

One take away has been that the Cxbladder products will probably have the highest gross margins and thus have been pushed and prioritised to the front of the queue, but then 80% margins are pretty damn high, if Cxcolorectal has even 40% margins that would be a not too bad next product off the rank to fly.

[Whipmoney]

Does that mean you have better than a 70% success rate whip?

Seems a bit closed minded to ignore something that could potentially help

Mmm it's not like i'm a trader but on short-term positions I would probably say that I've had closer to a 30% success rate....

In terms of Long-term positions, well I guess closer to a 100%.

Total return over the last 12 months > 70%.

I guess what let me down was over-thinking/churning my positions in a vein attempt to mitigate the 'downside' potential of suspected "down-trends".


For the record thought, I wasn't scoffing at Hoop getting it right 70% of the time.. I was just pointing out that it can only take a single bad trade/position to wipe out a significant amount of your capital.. in which case a 70% success won't necessarily equate to "guaranteed" (i.e. 100%) outperformance.

[Hoop]

Lol this reminds me of the Brian Fantana quote in Anchorman: 60% of the time, it works everytime..

A 70% success rate (on trades/positions) does not guarantee you that you will "beat" the house (whatever the benchmark is..), as one could easily loose more capital in a single (losing) 30% trade/position than they make in aggregate in their 70% successful trades.

Whip..

The TA discipline works exactly the opposite scenario to your way of perceiving it.

Yes it is true you may suffer losses ...but it is the gains which far exceed the value of your losses...

It is extremely rare to see a stock go belly up without any TA sell signals...The whole methodology of the TA discipline is the ability to escape without suffering big losses....the ability to quit your losses early on with the sell signals thereby 90+% of the time they are relativity small losses (10-15%) and TA lets your much more common gains keep on running ... some of them end up being extremely big gains and sometimes some continual upward price movements can last for years...Phaedrus using a similar medium term TA discipline had FBU for 7 years (a six bagger in total)

PEB share price performance has keep TAers out of this stock more often than in it...

EDIT: just read your last post...Yes the gains with your discipline is similar to the common basic medium term TA discipline one would expect at the moment...

[Whipmoney]

One take away has been that the Cxbladder products will probably have the highest gross margins and thus have been pushed and prioritised to the front of the queue, but then 80% margins are pretty damn high, if Cxcolorectal has even 40% margins that would be a not too bad next product off the rank to fly.

It doesn't actually matter what the gross margins are.. whether 80%, 90%, 99% or 1%, GM (as a %) is simply a nominal / rather meaningless value.

In terms of financial metrics, what really matters for PEB (in order of importance) is:

a) Sales;
b) Scalability of those sales;
c) The cost of that scalability; and
d) Gross Profit relative to overhead.


What good is a 99% gross margin percentage when you sell 4 units and are burning $4m a year..