PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Balance]

I do not have too much of a problem with David’s comments quite frankly and that is because Pacific Edge are making headway and achieving mile-stones; urologist pre-purchase dissonance was an issue that changed the landscape a bit, and hence the introduction of the ‘User Programs’.

So my personal answer to the point raised by Balance.

Is there going to be a Capital Raising? – I hope not, I would like to see the revenues from sales taking up the slack.

If you are concerned that there may be one coming, or that sales will be flat, then this stock maybe too risky for you. But to make a prediction at the moment with no information update is just a guess, we have not got enough data.

The key now and everyone is aware of this; is sales, sales and sales.

I have a real problem, Hancocks, as David Darling is on record as saying the $19m raised is sufficient to take PEB through to cash flow positive. He did not expect to raise any more capital unless there was a pressing need to build another lab. As clear as a a cloudless blue sky on a summer's day.

Implication to me is that the commercialization was already encountering problems when the $20m was raised in Oct 2013.

Unless David Darling was just mouthing off - like Chris Swann with his 'let tens of thousands of tests blossom'. Or am I confusing him with Chairman Mao?

[janner]

I have a real problem, Hancocks, as David Darling is on record as saying the $19m raised is sufficient to take PEB through to cash flow positive. He did not expect to raise any more capital unless there was a pressing need to build another lab. As clear as a a cloudless blue sky on a summer's day.

Implication to me is that the commercialization was already encountering problems when the $20m was raised in Oct 2013.

Unless David Darling was just mouthing off - like Chris Swann with his 'let tens of thousands of tests blossom'. Or am I confusing him with Chairman Mao?

Gong xi fa cai :-)))

[Balance]

Gong xi fa cai :-)))

Or was it the 'Great Leap Forward' that Chris Swann was articulating?

[Dentie]

I have a real problem, Hancocks, as David Darling is on record as saying the $19m raised is sufficient to take PEB through to cash flow positive. He did not expect to raise any more capital unless there was a pressing need to build another lab. As clear as a a cloudless blue sky on a summer's day.

Implication to me is that the commercialization was already encountering problems when the $20m was raised in Oct 2013.

Unless David Darling was just mouthing off - like Chris Swann with his 'let tens of thousands of tests blossom'. Or am I confusing him with Chairman Mao?

Lack of consistency in your comments here Balance ... one minute you say this ...

"Mr Darling says Pacific Edge is expected to be "cashflow positive" in the US within two years"

.

...and now you are saying this ...

"David Darling is on record as saying the $19m raised is sufficient to take PEB through to cash flow positive."

A big difference in meaning here.

For example, I wonder if the CEO of the NZ Super Fund (Adrian Orr) "expected" a loss of $200m when he invested in a Portugal bank (how long ago?). Isn't this one of the PIIG countries? Why didn't you warn us all about this potential loss?

...and, in a typical "stirring" manner ... you write this...

"Looking like 2 big sellers now competing to get out. The 80k to buy at 72c has been taken out."

...whereas I'm wondering who might be fighting to get in. If they were fighting to get out, they only need to hit the "on market" button.

I guess I'm a "glass half full" dude. Much more peaceful life than always looking at the "half empty glass".

I'll expect to raise an eyebrow when the real cornerstone investors start to divest.

[Dentie]

Friday October 19, 2012

(from the article) Mr. Darling says Pacific Edge is expected to be "cashflow positive" in the US within two years.

He should have clarified by adding: Of commencement of the commercial roll-out and after the lab has been commissioned and received CLIA registration; we cannot market anything until that is achieved. Our crystal ball (which I borrow from the Chairman on occasions) shows me that the lab will receive CLIA registration on the 18^th March 2013 (6 months after this article) and the first commercial sale will be in October 2013 (12 months after this article).

(from the article) And it isn't expecting to go back to shareholders unless there is a pressing need to set up a lab in another country.

He should have clarified by adding: The US lab was completed only two days ago and we are still waiting to receive CLIA registration. However, our crystal ball doesn’t show any impediment to achieving our goals; we must remain flexible enough to address all contingencies that arise.

He should have also added. These comments are forward looking and are intended to be an indication of our intended pathway and potential progress.

I don't see any need to defend PEB on these points Hancocks.

As we know, it is very easy to poke a stick at someone/something from behind the safety of the parapet or some other dark place...

... but things are much easier to comprehend when you have been at the coal face and your hands have been as equally as dirty as those others at the coal face.

[Balance]

Friday October 19, 2012

(from the article) Mr. Darling says Pacific Edge is expected to be "cashflow positive" in the US within two years.

He should have clarified by adding: Of commencement of the commercial roll-out and after the lab has been commissioned and received CLIA registration; we cannot market anything until that is achieved. Our crystal ball (which I borrow from the Chairman on occasions) shows me that the lab will receive CLIA registration on the 18^th March 2013 (6 months after this article) and the first commercial sale will be in October 2013 (12 months after this article).

(from the article) And it isn't expecting to go back to shareholders unless there is a pressing need to set up a lab in another country.

He should have clarified by adding: The US lab was completed only two days ago and we are still waiting to receive CLIA registration. However, our crystal ball doesn’t show any impediment to achieving our goals; we must remain flexible enough to address all contingencies that arise.

He should have also added. These comments are forward looking and are intended to be an indication of our intended pathway and potential progress.

Thanks for the 'clarifications' on behalf of Mr Darling, Hancocks.

What management of a company say and how they say about the business in the public arena are actionable - because they influence the market.

Especially when the company is enjoying a share run and is not covered by the main stream brokers - so it's mostly the 'Mum and Dad' type investors who are influenced.

The very bullish comments by Mr Darling and Mr Swann definitely contributed to the share spikes in 2012 - 2014, and they now need to deliver.

[Balance]

Lack of consistency in your comments here Balance ... one minute you say this ...

...and now you are saying this ...



A big difference in meaning here.

For example, I wonder if the CEO of the NZ Super Fund (Adrian Orr) "expected" a loss of $200m when he invested in a Portugal bank (how long ago?). Isn't this one of the PIIG countries? Why didn't you warn us all about this potential loss?

...and, in a typical "stirring" manner ... you write this...



...whereas I'm wondering who might be fighting to get in. If they were fighting to get out, they only need to hit the "on market" button.

I guess I'm a "glass half full" dude. Much more peaceful life than always looking at the "half empty glass".

I'll expect to raise an eyebrow when the real cornerstone investors start to divest.

Points of order, Dentie :

1. The comments are made by Mr Darling per the article linked - not me. The $19m was raised in July 2012. Anyone reading that article with an open mind is left with the impression Mr Darling is referring to the $19m and the two years to become 'cash flow' positive.

2. Whether sellers are fighting to get out or buyers are fighting to get in depends on the trend (down or up) of the trades. The trend in recent weeks has been ?

3. Cornerstone investors started divesting from 2013.

4. I am concerned here with PEB - what the CEO of NZ Super Fund or Treasury do have nothing to do with PEB. In any case if I was aware of the Super Fund putting money into a PIG bank, I would certainly have warned them against it. Just as I warned investors about Pike River, NZOG, Snakk etc.

Half glass full? Maybe you are referring to your spectacles? In which case, I think the right term to use is 'rose tinted'?

[skid]

I think in terms of the trend,that Balance has a valid point.(The fact that the last announcement ran the SP into the mid 90s,but failed to hold,supports this)

In terms of FA-I think Hancocks is pretty much spot on--We just dont know with the limited info we have at our disposal-(one of the reasons I sometimes react to some of Macs posts) We are left to fill the vacume with opinions and a search for any info that may influence where the co. is going-including me -(guilty as charged)
I think most agree the products are good--It seems crazy that it could possibly not be enough,but that is the question at this stage.(granted, we would know better if we had quarterlies[please David] )
Half full,half empty,take your choice--its all we have at the moment.(there are a number of reasons to be in either camp)

[Dentie]

Points of order, Dentie :

1. The comments are made by Mr Darling per the article linked - not me. The $19m was raised in July 2012. Anyone reading that article with an open mind is left with the impression Mr Darling is referring to the $19m and the two years to become 'cash flow' positive.

2. Whether sellers are fighting to get out or buyers are fighting to get in depends on the trend (down or up) of the trades. The trend in recent weeks has been ?

3. Cornerstone investors started divesting from 2013.

4. I am concerned here with PEB - what the CEO of NZ Super Fund or Treasury do have nothing to do with PEB. In any case if I was aware of the Super Fund putting money into a PIG bank, I would certainly have warned them against it. Just as I warned investors about Pike River, NZOG, Snakk etc.

Half glass full? Maybe you are referring to your spectacles? In which case, I think the right term to use is 'rose tinted'?

Points of reply Balance (at the risk of being picky):

1. You may have misinterpreted my point...I don't dispute DD said that ...I am saying there is a big difference between "is expected to" and "is sufficient to". To demonstrate...I "expect" to have $??? in my bank account by August 2015 (true statement BTW) - but that is not certain to happen because I can't control outside events. On the other hand, I am not that stupid to say I "will" have $??? in my bank account by August - for exactly the reason as above. The same applies to DD's statement!
2. Rubbish! Are you telling me when the uptrend was happening in Oct/Nov 13 there weren't sellers fighting to get out? I remember Snapiti was one such seller.
3. A mute point here Balance. A quick glance at the records tells me some may have sold a minute portion of their holdings (others may have been forced to?) ... but the main ones are all still there and some have actually increased their holdings.
4. Point taken.
5. Nope - just always preferred to look on the positive side of things.

[MAC]

I just see a very well structured marketing and commercialisation plan put in place by very smart hard working people, well articulated by Pacific Edge too, Edison and Forbar;

A series of commercial stepping stones, within which the revenue ramp up starts at a point when the company has hired sales staff, has product specific trained them, and they become active within their respective sales regions;

1. CLIA approval
2. US lab construction
3. Cxbladder(detect) product launch
4. NPN network provider agreements
5. KP demonstration user programme agreement
6. Hiring of initial sales force (12 staff)
7. Opening up of initial geographic sales regions
8. Large insurers commencing reimbursement
9. Commence LUG user programmes
10. Start of revenue ramp up <--- WE ARE HERE
11. Cxbladder(triage) product launch
12. Medicare coverage
13. Commencement of insurer contract agreements
14. KP demonstration user programme results
15. KP contract agreement
16. Profitability
17. Cxbladder(predict) product launch
18. Further HMO user programme initiated
19. Veterans Association coverage
20. Onward and upward to $100M revenues