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  1. #11511
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xerof View Post
    PT, not convinced they knew what sales to end of December 2014 were when they paid royalties prior to that date

    The main takeaway from Balance's 'observation' made via a circuitous route, was expectations set in 2012 have not been met. Well, sorry, but that just isn't new news to anyone, and the share price has adjusted from lofty heights to reflect that.

    The next report will give us another milestone indicator for sales, but I'd prefer to see the CMS issue resolved to be honest
    Fair enough, Xerof, to those who follow the stock as closely as some do.

    PEB has not however commented to date on how sales are running well below expectations and still refer to the magic $100m and 'in line with expectations'.

    Are we to assume they have rolling expectations (declining year to year) which they will always meet?
    Last edited by Balance; 25-02-2015 at 01:41 PM.

  2. #11512
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    It can be deduced therefore that the $18,040 paid to CDY was for all sales up to date to 31 December 2014 (accounting 101 - matching & accrual concepts).
    Not when sales to 31 Dec 14 would be unknown, given the payment was paid BEFORE the end of the period. I can't reconcile it in any shape or form, so it's possibly just a random cut-off date

    Bearing in mind that there's an overlap between PEB's March year and CDY's June year for reporting purposes, anyone expecting big numbers for the year to 31 March 2015 are going to be disappointed would be my thoughts at this stage.
    Despite your inconsistency over the royalty payment, I have the same thoughts - I too am not expecting 'big' numbers, nor is the market given the relatively stable share price. Happy to be surprised though.

    Are we to assume they have rolling expectations (declining year to year) which they will always meet?
    I wouldn't phrase it quite like that, but yes, timeframes have clearly been pushed out. I cut them some slack on that - it's moved, but I'm personally prepared to wait and see what is reported during the next 12 to 24 months. But I agree, commentary has been inconsistent and 'all over the paddock' (Jim Bolger) at times. I would expect better reporting and commentary from the newly appointed CFO, who is hopefully an accountant, not a scientist
    Last edited by Xerof; 25-02-2015 at 02:15 PM.

  3. #11513
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    It is hard to imagine that CDY would put out that kind of expectations without some consultation and interaction with PEB - that is the nature of forecasts. I recall some posters using the CDY numbers to assess PEB's forecast sales and prospects at that time and getting very bullish in the process.

    In any case, it is clear now that PEB's sales are way behind CDY's 2012 forecasts and expectations.

    Question now is by how much.

    PEB announced its first commercial sale of CxBladder in the States on 18 October 2013. CDY results for FY June 2014 showed no royalty payments from PEB based on sales.

    It can be deduced therefore that the $18,040 paid to CDY was for all sales up to date to 31 December 2014 (accounting 101 - matching & accrual concepts).

    Bearing in mind that there's an overlap between PEB's March year and CDY's June year for reporting purposes, anyone expecting big numbers for the year to 31 March 2015 are going to be disappointed would be my thoughts at this stage.
    How do you pay royalties in advance for an unknown number of tests. The payments would be based on PEBs reporting to CDY that x number of tests had accumulated to Sept 30 2014. "Here's the cheque" dated Oct 20th 2014 or thereabouts. If it was paid after the known accumulation to Dec 31 2014 then it could not show up in CDYs report as revenue for the period July 1 to Dec 31 2014.

    Apologies: see this has been covered whilst under construction.
    Might also add that big numbers would be unlikely. Would suggest that at the very least they would equal the first half plus whatever advances have been made in six months. There is every likelihood that the first patients are getting repeat monitoring at regular intervals by now so that should produce some growth
    Last edited by Minerbarejet; 25-02-2015 at 02:48 PM.

  4. #11514
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xerof View Post

    Despite your inconsistency over the royalty payment, I have the same thoughts - I too am not expecting 'big' numbers, nor is the market given the relatively stable share price. Happy to be surprised though.

    I wouldn't phrase it quite like that, but yes, timeframes have clearly been pushed out. I cut them some slack on that - it's moved, but I'm personally prepared to wait and see what is reported during the next 12 to 24 months. But I agree, commentary has been inconsistent and 'all over the paddock' (Jim Bolger) at times. I would expect better reporting and commentary from the newly appointed CFO, who is hopefully an accountant, not a scientist
    Timeframes being pushed out have several implications, Xerof :

    1. Capital requirement - $14m cash as at 31 September 2014 is unlikely to last another year of cash burn to build up sales as PEB has built up a higher overhead structure. Cash burn - estimate running at between $1m to $1.5m a month. Companies like to operate with a safety net of at least one year cash reserves so when PEB reports in May 2015, another rights issue is likely.

    2. The test market that PEB is in is getting crowded and is dynamic - PEB's competitive edge is not going to last forever. There are other players coming onto the market and urologists are not spoilt for choice.

    The risk on PEB has moved from upside risk (ie. need to be in) to downside risk (better to be out) imo.

    Imo, PEB is showing all the signs of a company in retreat - not a company which boldly stakes a path, and reports progress against the path.
    Last edited by Balance; 25-02-2015 at 03:20 PM.

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    Pacific Edge have advised that they have sufficient cash on hand through to profitability quite recently, but then perhaps some folk think they have better access to company accounting and internal forecasting than the Pacific Edge CFO.

    The analysts also, whom both are undoubtedly in frequent contact with the company, have also reported that cashflows are more than adequate.

    And, of course, those of us whom passed high school math, can calculate that cash holdings plus Callahan grants is adequate through to FY16, irrespective really of contribution from revenue income.

    Pacific Edge are one of the best capitalised pre-profitable companies on the NZX.

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    Agree the urologists are not spoilt for choice. They have cytology, and a few other singular tests with lesser credentials than cxbladder.
    Competitive edge will remain until cxbladder is surpassed. Unfortunately there is not a lot of room to do that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    The risk on PEB has moved from upside risk (ie. need to be in) to downside risk (better to be out) imo.

    Imo, PEB is showing all the signs of a company in retreat - not a company which boldly stakes a path, and reports progress against the path.
    Noted. Lets see in a couple of years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Xerof View Post
    Noted. Lets see in a couple of years.
    Good idea, xerof.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Xerof View Post
    Noted. Lets see in a couple of years.
    Investing is also a dynamic business, Xerof.

    I prefer to monitor a company closely against its stated strategy and goals, and not rely on their assurances and utterances!

  10. #11520
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    Quote Originally Posted by MAC View Post
    Pacific Edge have advised that they have sufficient cash on hand through to profitability quite recently, but then perhaps some folk think they have better access to company accounting and internal forecasting than the Pacific Edge CFO.

    The analysts also, whom both are undoubtedly in frequent contact with the company, have also reported that cashflows are more than adequate.

    And, of course, those of us whom passed high school math, can calculate that cash holdings plus Callahan grants is adequate through to FY16, irrespective really of contribution from revenue income.

    Pacific Edge are one of the best capitalised pre-profitable companies on the NZX.
    Well,that will be one to keep an eye on--whether there is a rights issue in May. We will find out then which of you is right..Keeps life interesting.

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