PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[psychic]

Agree Miner, exciting few months ahead.

1. We have MidCentral Health wrapping up it's evaluation

2. We have the March 2015 National Health Report on Hematuria and Diagnostic Options - screaming out for this.
http://nhc.health.govt.nz/system/fil...maturia-t2.pdf

3.We have the Triage results recently published confirming it is the test for the job with both high sensitivity and negative predictive value.
http://www.biomedcentral.com/content...015-0018-5.pdf

4. We are told Triage can save US$1.1m per 1000 patients presenting with hematuria and save many from invasive cystoscopy.

So it's all go here, with a launch into the States either on the back of, or later support of the KP study

Stars aligning..

[MAC]

Pacific Edge just been busy getting on with Cxbladder(detect) business in the background Psychic.

We are due for a Cxbladder(triage) push and announcement anytime now I reckon also though, a bit of strategic anticipation in the market to capitalise on following the BMC publication etc.

Four weeks from FY15 reporting and an update, I’m looking for revenues of $3.8M (+280%).

Wouldn’t surprise me to see a bit more than that actually though, just a hunch on the ratio of second half sales to tests being kicked along now by the 12 regional sales staff doing what they do, we could see anywhere up to $5M at a stretch IMO.

Attachment 7320

[Minerbarejet]

Pacific Edge just been busy getting on with Cxbladder(detect) business in the background Psychic.

We are due for a Cxbladder(triage) push and announcement anytime now I reckon also though, a bit of strategic anticipation in the market to capitalise on following the BMC publication etc.

Four weeks from FY15 reporting and an update, I’m looking for revenues of $3.8M (+280%).

Wouldn’t surprise me to see a bit more than that actually though, just a hunch on the ratio of second half sales to tests being kicked along now by the 12 regional sales staff doing what they do, we could see anywhere up to $5M at a stretch IMO.

Attachment 7320

That last pillar has me intrigued. They say it is a grossed up estimate based on the current ( then) rate that has been affected by the instigation of the Affordable Care Act. Clear as mud and probably deliberately erring on the side of caution.
The company would do well to add a bit of how, why and when to these statements and not just leave them hanging about for us to make whatever we can of it.

[MAC]

If nothing else it shows that the product is being adopted well enough, albeit still at early stages, all helps the clinical utility portfolio for CMS too. It would be nice if they were a bit more specific than that below;

“Process underway with key customers Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services (“CMS”) and Veterans Association with conclusion expected in 2015”

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/209911.pdf

We know they are already being reimbursed by CMS under a general diagnostic CPT code anyway, but there are seven months left in the year, the conclusion and coverage could be at any time now.

Ahem, if the good folk at Pacific Edge happen to be reading this thread, something a little more specific in respect to schedule and progress would be appreciated by your shareholders.

[Xerof]

Well, it's gone from mid 2014 to early 2015, (for reasons explained at the time), but now it could in practice be as late as 31 December 2015.

MAC, how do know they are being reimbursed? The last I saw was it was being accrued, but not accounted for anywhere.

Clearly the trolls lambasting of every comment ever uttered has turned them right off saying anything. That's fine with me as long as they are following continuous disclosure rules

[MAC]

Hi Xerof,

For no other reason than that it has been part of the Pacific Edge plan to do so since it was first suggested as far back as at the 2011 capital raising, it’s not anything new really.

As I understand, all pre-coverage diagnostic companies can utilise a composite CMS CPT code to seek reimbursement on a case by case basis, and can also submit an appeal if reimbursement is not forthcoming. Some biotech companies have very elaborate procedures in place to appeal every case in an effort to demonstrate their respective clinical benefits.

CMS are under no obligation to make payment under said composite CPT code, and as I understand the re-imbursement can also be held pending a coverage decision.

We don’t know how many CMS tests are presently being reimbursed or how many are presently being held, that would be price sensitive as you suggest.

Trust that assists, the Pacific Edge website just says;

“Pacific Edge is a Medicare provider. Pacific Edge will accept patients with Medicare coverage, and these patients will have no financial responsibility for Cxbladder”

It’s a confident statement based on an expectation of ultimately receiving CMS coverage.

Exact Sciences recently received coverage for their molecular diagnostic test, Cologuard, per the decision memorandum below, it also took them around two years to demonstrate adequate clinical utility and adoption to CMS. Pacific Edge should also receive a similar decision memo any time now.

http://www.cms.gov/medicare-coverage...aspx?NCAId=277

Edison’s advice was for this to occur late 2014 to early 2015, so it is due about now, however the Affordable Care Act being introduced in January could have delayed matters for a couple of months, who really knows.

Pacific Edge could do more to advise the share market that only CMS have control over how long it will take and that Pacific Edge can only speculate on the matter, as best they can, based on feedback received from CMS.

Perhaps that’s a part of general shareholder education, or perhaps it’s not Pacific Edge’s responsibility to educate shareholders who should already understand their own investments.

We should get some progress in four weeks time at FY reporting and during the FY conference call also, if coverage is not forthcoming by that time.

kind regards, Mac

[skid]

Hopefully CMS coverage will give a boost(when and if)--but your comparison with Genomic Health is clearly misleading for reasons already stated--(the most important of which is that Genomic is partnered with Bristal Myers Squib -Pfitzer-Imclone-and Sanoti Mentis to promote their products covering 3 different cancer tests.) It also had a faster growth before CMS coverage.
It will,however be interesting to see how the numbers pan out.

[Xerof]

MAC, a belated thanks for your comprehensive response

[Minerbarejet]

Hi xerof,
So where are we on your investor sentiment cycle diagram, must be past capitulation by now or are we still on the way down?
Cheers
Miner

[skid]

seems pretty range bound--IMO the market is valuing it pretty much where it is and adopting a ''wait and see'' approach until numbers or announcement comes along--I think potential for things to happen will keep it from drifting down but caution about why nothing is happening and lack of communication,will keep it from increasing to much--There could be fireworks one way or the other when report comes (or news)