PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[dagoldtoof]

Listened to Radio ZB talkback 12-5am, host was a Timb, one subject discussed was cancer detection(bladder)info coming from callers was ancient and misleading, no one mentioned CX bladder...subject is being discussed again tonight, this is free publicity targeting a older generation that listen to night talkback...Have sent a email to Pacific Edge indicating this is a good opportunity for this product...but my email might this might get lost in their office someone else might have a direct line to the big chiefs..

[skid]

That ''early sales are largely irrelevant'' may or may not be true,but it is not going to boost investor confidence.

If thats how it pans out it will hurt the SP or trade sideways for alot longer which may persuade investors to look elsewhere until this thing gets rolling (its just as easy to watch from the sidelines) The company will carry on and one can jump on board at any point.

Carpenter Joe does have a point about the low volume and the markets were at least in the black last night so today could be better for the SP.

But the point remains that alot think the markets in general are overvalued (from lack of other places to invest) which may require a correction or a long period of sideways action (for the rest of the year?) to bring things back in line.--this unfairly could affect even small Bioteks that are good.

Its become obvious what always having to look ahead for potential to bring results has put things in the doldrums.
Maybe we will get a surprise come sales figures,but if they are only where even the optimistic are predicting we may be talking about chickens and peacocks for awhile yet.

[MAC]

I rarely comment on what the SP will do over the short term, there are as many opinions and directions as there are short termers, and each is just noise really to a long term investor.

Sales for molecular biotech companies are a function of coverage, and, up until the hard yards have been done in demonstrating clinical validity with studies like the Breen paper, and in demonstrating reasons for adoption through user programmes, sales remain at a pre-coverage threshold, as we have seen over the last year or so.

That’s not an attribute of Pacific Edge, rather it’s an attribute of the US healthcare adoption process, and all biotech companies follow a similar path in that respect.

At this point in time, the company is pretty much just now completing that process and is on the cusp of initiating coverage with CMS, VA and onward and forward with the private insurers.

I would offer that the analyst estimates, which are a bit too conservative in my view at $1.30, represent a pre CMS coverage price target for the company.

That’s 86% up side from an SP of $0.70 today for those whom want it.

Sales come with coverage, and it may be that some will wait for that to occur, fair enough, some will research and buy the prospective business plan at a lower share price.

And, that business plan is pretty much done as far as achieving CMS coverage goes, we are just awaiting an announcement which could come at any day now.

COVERAGE DRIVES SALES

Attachment 7335

[skid]

Fair enough--Each to his own(as you would say)--Its really a matter of how long investors are willing to wait to get that advantage of a lower share price--(i personally think that the heady days of a monumental leap in SP on announcements, like last year are not going to happen)--to much water under the bridge.
If its really good news ,of course it will increase,but whether its so big that you cant afford to be out ,remains to be seen.

Your dream may well come true in time,but I think its prudent to be aware that it could falter.--Lets hope a great product is enough.
In the meantime,Im unashamedly aware of what the SP does as I try to reduce risk as much as possible.

Looks like a better day for the SP today....I believe there is a pretty sturdy wall between the 70s and 60s

on a different topic there was an interesting article on a monumental treatment of injecting the polio virus into cancerous tumors which awakened the bodies immune system to fight and destroy it.
Apparently the cancer has a way of normally fooling the immune system that its not there.

Amazing what the immune system is actually capable of when it actually become ''aware'' of a problem.

[MAC]

Certainly as far as risk goes that’s mostly in the past now, clinical trial outcomes, laboratory registration, gross margin work up, only CMS remains as a significant risk milestone which IMO is just a matter of time now and is imminent, particularly in light of papers demonstrating the product as favourably as this;

“The Chief Execitive Officer for Pacific Edge Diagnostics USA, Jackie Walker, says:“Not only does this publication provide further evidence of the superior sensitivity of Cxbladder Detect in diagnosing bladder cancer compared other other non-invasive tests, but most importantly it is the first piece of comparative data that includes UroVysion FISH, a molecular test that is widely used by clinicians and physicians in the US. As we expected, Cxbladder Detect proved to be better at detecting bladder cancer than all the non-invasive tests currently being used in the US and provides an effective adjunt to cystoscopy, and this is what clinicians have been looking for”

Certainly most if not all investors would consider a biotech company pretty much fully de-risked when they achieve profitability.

Edison tell us that they expect next year’s revenues (FY16) to be $15.7M, my calculator tells me that those revenues will very probably make the company profitable.

Thus, profitability in around about 12 months from now, yes only 12 months away,

My analysis and base case DCF is that Pacific Edge will be valued at around the $2 mark when they become a profitable going concern, and I would not be surprised to see analysts further increase their price targets toward that point over the coming months.

I’m not qualified to say if the share market will take the company up rapidly like in 2013, but certainly at some point valuations will be recognised by the market, they always are.

[skid]

Might see you somewhere on the way to your $2--when you and the market get on the same page--best of Luck to all

[Whitebeard]

Not sure of the date on this http://www.utsouthwestern.edu/research/fact/detail.html?studyid=STU%20112012-018 but good to see all the comparisons and the study sites.

[Minerbarejet]

Not sure of the date on this http://www.utsouthwestern.edu/research/fact/detail.html?studyid=STU%20112012-018 but good to see all the comparisons and the study sites.

It has been going a year or so that particular study. It seems that these evaluations and studies take a lot of time as they have to get sufficient numbers agreeing to participate. In NZ, Midcentral DHB have an evaluation of cxbladder Triage that has taken two years, as planned, presumably ending on time in June 2015. Results awaited with interest.

Wonder what happened to the launch into Asia in April or was it delayed because they didnt have International Standard accreditation at the time.

[MAC]

And, here it is already, for some light reading and analysis over ones 10am flat white.

“A holistic comparative analysis of diagnostic tests for urothelial carcinoma: a study of Cxbladder Detect, Urovysion® FISH, NMP22® and cytologybased on imputation of multiple datasets”

http://www.biomedcentral.com/content...015-0036-8.pdf

[jonu]

Just watching the bid spread this morning--interesting to see the remainder of a late 100k order at 73 from last night (11k) grew to 21k while still showing only one bidder. I think (happy to be corrected) it's only instos that get to do that sort of thing. Am I right?