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  1. #221
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    Hi Hancock,
    Im not making a value judgement on those potential sellers[in terms of being astute or clever]but there are two sides to every coin and there is a possibility that things got a bit carried away in the recent [speculative?]
    share price ascent[I think we were both surprised at the climb]
    If it does fall,it doesnt mean its a bad product or co.
    I believe it would be more an issue of falling back to its true value ATM[with no additional news]
    That small percentage that make the price volitile you speak of ,have brought the share price from 40 to 60 cents. Its certainly possible for the reverse to happen to back in the 50s.
    Even the most astute and long term supporters are not rushing to buy more at these levels.

  2. #222
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    Quote Originally Posted by skid View Post
    Hi Hancock,
    Im not making a value judgement on those potential sellers[in terms of being astute or clever]but there are two sides to every coin and there is a possibility that things got a bit carried away in the recent [speculative?]
    share price ascent[I think we were both surprised at the climb]
    If it does fall,it doesnt mean its a bad product or co.
    I believe it would be more an issue of falling back to its true value ATM[with no additional news]
    That small percentage that make the price volitile you speak of ,have brought the share price from 40 to 60 cents. Its certainly possible for the reverse to happen to back in the 50s.
    Even the most astute and long term supporters are not rushing to buy more at these levels.


    What would be of concern is if some 'insiders' (and I do not mean insider trading but doctors, consultants, suppliers etc) were buying on the way up (because they knew something) but then, reverse sell because things have turned pear shaped.

    I do not think that is the case.

  3. #223
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    .......no I dont think so either Balance. I believe what we have here is a very genuine company, run by intelligent people, PRODUCING something that the world could do with. PEB appears to be well managed and well supported (including a few "name" individuals)..........pretty much all the hard ground work has been done and we now wait for the product(s) to proove themselves in the real world. I have zero doubt their business model will also perform well because it must have been a simple maths test to proove it will be profitable.......there can't be too many variables to have to factor in? If competition enters this market also I don't think that will neccasarily be a bad thing either.......the more awareness out there of this technology means Bio Markers will then become the benchmark....the "norm". I expect this to happen at a good pace.........but yes fingers are still a little bit crossed for now. Really looking forward to the next few months with the opening of the USA clinic......shouldnt be far off now.
    Have a Gr8day.

  4. #224
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    Australia?

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  6. #226
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    ............."poke in the eye with a sharp stick"...LOL Chalkie!!
    Have a Gr8day.

  7. #227
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    Quote Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown View Post
    See posts 123 onwards.
    Sorry,..bit slow on the draw there..

  8. #228
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    http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/news/article/38

    http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/news/article/39

    A couple interesting new videos from the PEB website, especially the one on the potential of the military market.

  9. #229
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    Thanks for those links barney, I enjoyed both. Great to hear David Darling talk about the urologist in NJ who has been using the product for 6 months and is now writing a paper for presentation.

    The market in the States alone is huge, DOD, Veterans Affairs, holders should be well pleased with the way PEB has taken deliberate and measured steps from day one, and continues to do so.

    Makes one want to top up.

  10. #230
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    Some good info in there.

    The Pennsylvania lab is set up to make and process up to 260k CxBladder tests every year. Thats a whopping amount! I assume they have gauged the market and have planned for reaching capacity only in say 5 years...

    So imagine they got to half that in two or three years, depending on the uptake and using Sparky's previous figures...

    130,000 tests @ US $800 a pop... translates to revenue of USD $104 million. That's not bad. Now what's their profit margin?

    And what if they operate at capacity? 208 million... @ Sparkys estimate of 50% profit... 104 million profit... just how long it would take to reach this though is anyones guess. And remember, at capacity, that only still represents around 30% of the market!

    That's the hard numbers. What is really important though, obviously, is uptake by the industry. But, they have a product that should sell itself based on its results.

    With what appears to be good management taking cautious but optimistic steps, I cannot see how they can fail. Right now, if I was a big healthcare provider and based on current SP prices and future potential, these guys are a great takeover oppourtunity. But lets keep that on the down-low because it they offered now the price might be $1.50, whereas in a couple of years, I am picking their SP to be in the $3-4 mark or more.

    Great company. Great product. Great oppourtunity. Cheap shareprice.

    I am obviously a holder because my opinion is that you would be silly not to be!

  11. #231
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    In terms of uptake--What you will want to see now is good uptake numbers in Australia where it has been on the market since June.
    This will be the first indication of how the product is received.
    If these numbers are good then thats a good indication of how things will go in the states.
    We can say whatever we like about the product,but as far as the market goes,until we see some numbers from its initial launch in Australia,then as far as the states goes ,its blind faith at this stage.

  12. #232
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    Quote Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown View Post
    Blobbies, a couple of points.

    1. I suspect the growth required to have Hershey running at maximum would take 5-8 years, if cxBladder alone is their product.
    2. CxColorectal will be ready for showtime in the next year or two.
    3. They can fail because of external forces, like the highly politicised world of health in the USA.
    4. They are a takeover opportunity when they start to eat into marketshare, until then, they are just a patent warehouse which a healthcare company could pick over the bones should PEB fail.

    The risks are greater than you let on. If uptake is slow, then the share price will drop to 30c. They will likely be bought out by a health company who knows how to market products for a pittance

    BUT, the rewards are huge should they deliver. Your share price will be more like $6 or $8 if they can manage the kind of earnings with multiple diagnostic products I think they are capable of.

    Remember - it's not just CxBladder, but a whole suite of cancer diagnostic tests based on their patented technology.

    I would tend to agree, the way I see it PEB's biggest hurdle is convincing the U.S insurance companies to pay for the use of their product.

    The product is proven to work and is a market leader however if the insurance companies shun the product the share price will dive and PEB
    will have to focus on another market, which would add a few more years before investors were to see returns.

    In saying that on the balance of probabilities cxbladder should begin to significantly start eating into market share come march and I think we
    are all onto a winner.

  13. #233
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    [QUOTE=SparkyTheClown;392196]I It is urologists who may need to grapple with a product that costs less (and therefore worry they may not make as much money). profit margin the QUOTE]

    Hopefully the New Jersey urologist who is currently writing a paper to go to the AUA will spark some interest amongst his peers, and being in print in the American Journal of Urology will undoubtedly encourage sales.

    I sincerely hope your fear re costs is unfounded, although of course today medicine is much more about $$ than it is the patients.

  14. #234
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    [QUOTE=SparkyTheClown;392198]
    Quote Originally Posted by karen1 View Post


    Not unfounded sadly. It's a real threat, but it is balanced by the fact that powerful health insurance companies and litigious patients will force a market solution to use a better product, even if it is possibly cheaper, annoying the urologist trying to maximise profits.

    It is the politics that scare me the most. Lobbyists in the health sector could sew fear and uncertainty with politicians and media, causing a PR headache. That gives urologists a reason to not use the product - "because there are too many uncertainties, and Mr Jones, you deserve certainty when I care for you as you face this awful cancer challenge".
    Yes of course, it is a real threat, as is any (particularly) medical associated venture in the US. I do feel though that PEB are taking small steps with major care and caution, and have hope that they will win out by their guarded entry into the States. Lobbyists? Q: Whatís the difference between a shame and a pity?
    A: If a busload of Lobbyists goes over a cliff, and there are no survivors, thatís known as a pity. If there were any empty seats, thatís a shame.

    And Hancocks has just made a good point re health conscious people. I think Sir Peter Leitch, aka the Mad Butcher, would have done much to put the CX Bladder test on the radar of many in NZ.
    Last edited by karen1; 03-02-2013 at 01:13 PM.

  15. #235
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    Thanks for that Sparky, my eternal optimism sometimes needs dampening back to reality! I agree now, its not all plain sailing, but you have to like their chances :-)

  16. #236
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    Any idea when we can expect to see numbers from Australia? Agree, it does seem to be the best indicator.
    I was a holder of PEB and currently looking out for another entry point.

  17. #237
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  18. #238
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    yea good work Barney.......any Science Graduates out there?.......might be a good source of some "inside info"??
    Have a Gr8day.

  19. #239
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hancocks View Post
    Here is a download from Healthscope that gives a good idea of the 'easy' marketing and makes good reading.

    http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j...aCOocfpfIsxNng
    Good stuff, Hancocks!

  20. #240
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    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#axzz2Kf7AzqVD

    Amazing young girl - makes me think I mis-spent my youth

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