PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[skid]

You mean like this Skid? Looks like it's going up to me - the results are all FY except HY 2015 until I get the figures 28th May. Do you follow or research / read PEB at all Skid?

Attachment 7360

I believe he was referring to the share price--(will the share price rocket) The question is why didnt the SP rocket after the results of 2014 which looks great on your graph,compared to 2013---but to be fair ,that graph would look quite different if you stood it up to $100,000,000 or what ever revenue it takes to acquire a real lift off--the question is --will the numbers be enough this time around?

Are you expecting a big lift? we'll see soon

[MAC]

I'm not one for speculating on the short term either Hancock’s, who really knows if the FOMO set will do what they do this time or next, don't really care to be honest.

Although the SP is undervalued by 86% even by Forbar’s very conservative effort at $1.30, and that may just be a reason enough on its own for a move.

There are I think some long termer's who have holding off for an entry point, and the shareprice will only track sideways for so long, once molecular diagnostic company revenue curves take-off they tend to go quickly, and there will be a point where the insto's will all jump on board to ride that curve.

It might be this report or it might be the next, who knows, but there is certainly a lot on the horizon within the next several months to kick things uphill, Medicare coverage, VA coverage, KP contract sign up, launch of triage, maybe predict also, possibly the appointment of a distributing partner, perhaps some private insurer coverage too.

The first year of commercialisation is at a close, typically it is the second year for molecular diagnostic company products that sees the first big ramp in revenues.

I’m looking for circa 3 to 4 times the revenue we see next week to be reported at the end of year two, FY16, noting that the sales force was only really in place and up to speed for under six months of the FY15 period.

[Minerbarejet]

You mean like this Skid? Looks like it's going up to me - the results are all FY except HY 2015 until I get the figures 28th May. Do you follow or research / read PEB at all Skid?

Attachment 7360

Knowing that the lab throughput for Q3 = Q1+Q2, and Q4 was tracking higher than Q3,
(Aussie Presentation) and if the throughput is consistent in its revenue generating ratio then the yellow column for 2015 is only 33% of where it could be next week, at least.
Sure looks like a rocket to me.

[skid]

I'm not one for speculating on the short term either Hancock’s, who really knows if the FOMO set will do what they do this time or next, don't really care to be honest.

Although the SP is undervalued by 86% even by Forbar’s very conservative effort at $1.30, and that may just be a reason enough on its own for a move.

There are I think some long termer's who have holding off for an entry point, and the shareprice will only track sideways for so long, once molecular diagnostic company revenue curves take-off they tend to go quickly, and there will be a point where the insto's will all jump on board to ride that curve.

It might be this report or it might be the next, who knows, but there is certainly a lot on the horizon within the next several months to kick things uphill, Medicare coverage, VA coverage, KP contract sign up, launch of triage, maybe predict also, possibly the appointment of a distributing partner, perhaps some private insurer coverage too.

The first year of commercialisation is at a close, typically it is the second year for molecular diagnostic company products that sees the first big ramp in revenues.

I’m looking for circa 3 to 4 times the revenue we see next week to be reported at the end of year two, FY16, noting that the sales force was only really in place and up to speed for under six months of the FY15 period.

The fact that the SP is 86% below Forbars estimate a reason on its own to give the SP lift off---I dont think so

Why isnt Fed Med and the others (millions of customers) and an energetic sales force cranking for 6 months enough to really give the coming numbers a boost--(they must be doing well enough that PEB didnt need to turn up at the AUA annual convention in New Orleans where all those urologists go)

That horizon may be next week ,or next month,or next year(as Edison said (possibly)--When the horizon comes (all going well and hopefully to plan) then we need to see what kind of a deal they can negotiate.

I agree alot of long termers (or any termers) have been holding off for an entry point until a revenue curve takes off--then there will be time for not only insto's but any investor to jump on board to ride the curve-(so what if its not absolutely picking the bottom)--and why not?--they would then have proved they can mix it with the big boys--there wont be an horizons anymore, but much more certainty,in other words they would have taken advantage of the opportunities and made them successful.

[MAC]

I’ve read and assessed the Forbar reports and revision notes really quite thoroughly thanks.

The price target they have at present $1.30 (+86% from here) is very heavily and conservatively discounted for risk, in WACC, in schedule timing and through other assumptions they have adopted.

My feel is that they don’t want to be seen to have a price target too high above present SP and will increment it a bit every few months as time goes by, that’s a view I’ve shared on this thread consistently for nearly a year now, ever since there initiating position in July last year.

I don’t see that changing anytime soon either, and suspect we may very well see another increment after the FY.

The intrinsic value of the company increases every month that goes by, as they increase their adoption case portfolio, publish demonstrating papers, ramp up sales staff, work their way through key negotiations, prepare for new product launches, garner an ever increasing number of international patents, and progress the product pipeline with Callahan funding.

Forbar Price Target Over Time Chart

Attachment 7362

[skid]

Skid, do you read or follow PEB?

HyperLink: Pacific Edge - Calendar of Events

Sorry ---I tend to look elsewhere than their own site(PEB) for mention of them in the outside world--i searched all over the AUA site for PEB (search engine etc. and couldnt find a thing--so I stand corrected.

But Im not really getting any warm fuzzies fron those price charts--all im seeing is that they are continually missing their targets. ???

Guess they are saying that in may 2015 someday they will have a share price of $1.30 ??

[Minerbarejet]

(Miner busily winds clock forward to Thursday lunchtime hoping this will speed things up, then goes out to repair his brick wall)
Again.

[Minerbarejet]

Guess they are saying that in may 2015 someday they will have a share price of $1.30 ??

What on earth are you talking about?
Pacific Edge does not dictate the share price nor do they predict it.
It is solely a reflection of the valuation that Mr Market thinks it is worth from the financial facts available at any given point.
At one point the total collective analysis thought it was worth 1.72.
It may very well do that again at some stage.

( miner writes down several numbers between 2 and 10 million on a piece of paper then tears up the paper and puts them in his hat. Draws one out.)
Here you go, skid.
FY 15 : 4.3 million inc grants
Whats your GUESS?

[skid]

It's hard to respond to that post, because:

(a) its too jointed for me to follow; and
(b) there is no supporting links / reference / documentation to support your opinion?

I'm just trying to get a handle on your posts, which apparently (your admission) are sourced from limited data or resources - it may be that the main source is from some of the facile and banal posts by others on this thread.

Ill try to clarify I got the AUA wrong(looks like they were there) I think some posters spend so much time looking inward(basically at the product ,which by now ,we know is good)and I accept that its good,but not much time looking outward at the market in general and its potential hurdles that any company has to overcome. There is the competition,conservative medical people who are slow to change-awareness of the product(which is what I was getting at with the conference) etc,--Those things can be interpreted as slagging the company,but looking at it another way,correcting those issues can also make it a better company ,so it is ,I think constructive.
I think this point was partially shown by the fact that (PEB)realized that their old PR co. was not worth its salt and changed firms.(Ive heard very little on this thread about the importance of marketing(the best product can fail without it)
Alot of my posts are responses to some of the ideas that the product alone is enough and paint a picture that is not a true reflection of the reality of the situation in the market place. That may change on Fri .we'll see.
Its more or less just a way of saying ''Hold on -slow down a minute -have you considered this''
Miner gets alerts,so he sees when anything regarding PEB gets mentioned anywhere--that sounds like PEB is getting plastered all over and is getting high profile attention,but in fact ,alot of those clips ,noone really sees they are so buried,and some are no more than a small paid PR--still a step in the right direction,but misleading to think it is setting up for a surge.

My mistake was obviously looking outward and missing the caledar of events (inward)(which I guess is the other side of the coin)

The charts I take with a grain of salt simply because they have been making those projections for a while now and nothing has come to pass--Whats the point of basing your investment decisions on an analyst's price target upgrade if their original target is no closer.

There are alot of statements around on this thread that insinuate we are on the brink of a surge of monumental proportions and its pretty much a sure thing -I dont think PEB has established itself to the point that it has become the product of choice yet (even though it most likely deserves it) so its steady as she goes (but lets not get carried away)

I think we would all be better off if 2 things had not happened--
the first--they should have never claimed that within 5 years time they would be turning over 100 mil a year (each year)

Second--We'd be better off if that speculative run up to $1.70 and subsequent crash had not happened-(it makes some think we are on the brink of another similar scenario and the market is in a different place now)--we'd be better off being happy with possibly another increase without the hype, if ,they do indeed ,get things right --its irrational IMO to jump in ,boots and all, until a bit of a track record is set(in the market -not the lab)

[skid]

What on earth are you talking about?
Pacific Edge does not dictate the share price nor do they predict it.
It is solely a reflection of the valuation that Mr Market thinks it is worth from the financial facts available at any given point.
At one point the total collective analysis thought it was worth 1.72.
It may very well do that again at some stage.

( miner writes down several numbers between 2 and 10 million on a piece of paper then tears up the paper and puts them in his hat. Draws one out.)
Here you go, skid.
FY 15 : 4.3 million inc grants
Whats your GUESS?

I guess I would fall in with Edisons report because it just seems far to detailed to just be a guess

I would then venture to say that not anything big would happen until the Kaiser report (which is more of a validation than numbers)
If you look at the report that info on when it should come to pass does not look like a wild guess,which leads me to believe that it is from consulting with PEB (which means patience most likely is required)