PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Joshuatree]

Parallels with Xero. Hope they both make it but too risky for me atp.

[trader_jackson]

In many ways, it is very different to Xero, much smaller, and not software.

[trader_jackson]

Just had a listen to the conference call (who else has?) seems like their expansion into South East Asia could result in a revision up of their $100m forecast (which even I realize is quite 'lofty')... David does seem to have very, very good knowledge on basically every part of the business, which some may expect (which is understandable), but it still gives me confidence.

[Joshuatree]

Parallel in Growing pains

[Minerbarejet]

Just had a listen to the conference call (who else has?) seems like their expansion into South East Asia could result in a revision up of their $100m forecast (which even I realize is quite 'lofty')... David does seem to have very, very good knowledge on basically every part of the business, which some may expect (which is understandable), but it still gives me confidence.

Waiting for the typist to finish deciphering and getting a transcript up.

Someone on hotcopper just suggested that maybe PEB is going to make an offer on CDY. Hair tonic should provide a bit more growth.
Wouldnt need to pay royalties either.

The bit that hoses me off is the receivables going up by a million.
Why are we subsidising the American Medical System? Sure its an asset, assuming they pay, eventually? Suppose it will flatten out.
Could indicate a large upswing very recently though that hasnt had time to filter through.

And: First KP patients in the next week or so for Triage evaluation-
Triage to be launched USA in June 2015. From presentation.
2+2 says the product needs to be launched before KP can make a start. Make sense?
Lets get on with it shall we.

[Xerof]

Despite DD oft saying they were good questions, I didn't think they were at all. A lot of background colour was indeed added, but no-one really got a direct answer to their question, nor were the questions very penetrating. DD alluded to an earlier briefing, perhaps to Analysts only, at which more searching issues were hopefully raised and answered. But if thats the best our local Analysts can come up with, then I'm afraid I have to rank them in line with our financial journalists.........who in turn are only just above politicians and real estate agents.

but thanks hancocks for posting your thoughts, and the link, much appreciated.

I get the feeling they are on the verge, whether its a cliff or not, time will tell.

I'll support them for another year, and take up the rights, but it will need to be serious Moonlight this time next year

[skid]

My opinion is that the results were in-line with the analysts Forsyth Barr ($3.1M) and Edison Research ($3.4M) – total revenue was $4,132,000 including grants and research rebates, that's OK.

We are rolling out a product that has cost a lot of real money to develop. They are expensive tests for insurers because of the development costs, not because they are getting ‘ripped’ and we have still produced this cheaper than any other company could develop; so we have a great advantage there. A lot of the intellectual contribution has been by Pacific Edge Limited, the University of Otago, development grants (e.g. Callaghan Fund) R&D rebates and of course the stalwart angel investors. But a growth opportunity like this takes money and investors with an appropriate risk profile.

Attachment 7373

It has been a long haul getting this product rolled out, but we definitely are getting there, I wouldn’t get too down in the mouth just yet.

Attachment 7374

The FMA issue was just unfortunate and I think a public warning and Pacific Edge offering compensation is the best negotiated outcome you could hope for; it was a hiding to nothing and not worth a fight really – opinion against opinion, just look at this thread for an example.

The rights issue was a surprise for two reasons, one 50mins after the results and the amount; however, when you read the documentation – it all fits in my opinion.

The rights issue will provide Pacific Edge with the funding to:

• Expand its sales force in the US from 12 to 18 to service 19 major metro regions in the US

• Complete the evaluation of South East Asia, and if favourable, launch operations in Singapore as an entry point

• Complete the commercialisation of its third and fourth Cxbladder diagnostic tests, Cxbladder Monitor and Cxbladder Predict

• Bring new product technology and product improvements through to its markets

• Strengthen the balance sheet, allowing Pacific Edge to take advantage of any commercial opportunities which arise.


Grow the US business $3.7M FY16 & $4.2M FY17 Implementation of the increased sales force and targeted marketing programs.

Bring Cxbladder Monitor & Cxbladder Predict to the market $1.1M FY16 & $1.3M FY17.

Enter the South East Asian market $0.7M FY16 & $3.1M FY17.

So the above totals $5.5M FY16 & $8.6M FY17 for specific outflows = $14.1M

In FY16, Pacific Edge anticipates net cash outflow including specifically earmarked initiatives and existing operations of $15.2M

$14.1M & $15.2M = $29.3M they 'Pacific Edge' are raising $35M - makes sense.

I think investors are not happy because PEB has said they would not need another capital raising

I personally feel that this cap raising is that they have woken up to the importance of marketing.
and that takes cash..

In terms of sign ups-I dont see much happening till 2016 when Kaiser comes through,but thats just my opinion.

I wonder what the revenue (and Im talking sales-imo grants are just a sideshow)works out to be per salesman.

Do you think targeting urologists instead of doctors is the right approach?

I would be interested to know how long you, or others think it will take to reach their target.

I dont think they are dead in the water like nsome say--but I do think the game has changed considerably--for this year

[Meister]

The rights issue was a surprise for two reasons, one 50mins after the results and the amount

I think you missed the third and most obvious reason it was a surprise - they said they wouldn't need one! I support PEB, and will continue to do so, but this latest announcement definitely has shaken things up. How well can we trust their prior guidance? Or any of their guidance?

They have a great product and I am hopeful that things are just ticking over slower than expected. Things could end up going really well for PEB, but invalid guidance like this is exactly why this thread has so much negativity, and it isn't all misplaced.

I am glad that sales have ramped up somewhat. The product isn't dead, it is early days and we have been shown that it can sell. It is just going to take time. A lot more time than they have been hinting at so far.

[winner69]

Despite DD oft saying they were good questions, I didn't think they were at all. A lot of background colour was indeed added, but no-one really got a direct answer to their question, nor were the questions very penetrating. DD alluded to an earlier briefing, perhaps to Analysts only, at which more searching issues were hopefully raised and answered. But if thats the best our local Analysts can come up with, then I'm afraid I have to rank them in line with our financial journalists.........who in turn are only just above politicians and real estate agents.

but thanks hancocks for posting your thoughts, and the link, much appreciated.

I get the feeling they are on the verge, whether its a cliff or not, time will tell.

I'll support them for another year, and take up the rights, but it will need to be serious Moonlight this time next year

Xerof .....one question was a GREAT question .....and David said the questions were searching and in depth

The future sure going to be transformation

Guru analysts love that word colour eh, must use it more often myself

[Xerof]

Xerof .....one question was a GREAT question .....and David said the questions were searching and in depth

The future sure going to be transformation

Guru analysts love that word colour eh, must use it more often myself

lol, yes, and did I hear the phrase 'tens of thousands of tests"? Yes, I did, as well as "hundreds of thousands of tests" Hartley will have that in print in tomorrows ODT...

that will put a bit of colour in some pallid cheeks