PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Intel]

Have always liked Peb's tech and the market opportunity but haven't been a shareholder for a while. Looking from the outside I see some small progress but its the potential for "death by initiative" thats worrying. PEB shouldn't expand into other markets until they've got a proven product with a track record, it becomes an easier sell and less restrictive on capital resource in the earlier days.

They should pump as much resource into the US market + get in a new CEO, preferably a Large pharma exec with connections and nous in the US, someone that can get things done. Although a lot of shareholders may disagree with that, I think it would provide a better outcome for shareholders as DD has not delivered as many would have hoped by now.

No mention of Spain either (perhaps that was already gone?) and it really annoys me when companies don't disclose information (IE THE USAGE CHARTS WITH NO AXIS!!!!!!!) they have no reason not to - It leaves an uneasy feeling that they are afraid of telling the market the true numbers. Tell shareholders so they are more informed I say.

All in all its disappointing for shareholders that more cash is needed but at least you ARE selling product in the US (looking at receipts in the CF statement) which has to be taken with some satisfaction.

Ill continue to sit on the sidelines and wait for better confirmation of adoption and wouldn't be surprised if the SP heads south of 50c in the next 6 months before the next result. I don't think this company at this point in time deserves a valuation of $200m. I reckon the best play would be to wait for the first insurer coverage (if/ when it comes) as the risk return profile will be a lot better than (even though you will miss the initial rise) imho but hope to be proven wrong as medical technologies that can save and improve quality of life should be fast tracked to success.

[winner69]

lol, yes, and did I hear the phrase 'tens of thousands of tests"? Yes, I did, as well as "hundreds of thousands of tests" Hartley will have that in print in tomorrows ODT...

that will put a bit of colour in some pallid cheeks

And was it Hartley who mentioned the 5 year plan to $100m and said suppose 2 years in to it ......and not even chastised by David for mentioning it ......or denial ....so $100m in 3 years now ....just another $97m to go, but transformational businesses can do that easy

[winner69]

......and that word suite seemed to be used often ........exciting stuff

[trader_jackson]

No doubt some analysts research will be out tomorrow, will be interesting to see what their views are, but I agree it is interesting that they made that comment just 2 years ago. However, they probably (well I should hope) have more understanding about just how long their science actually takes to convert into sales (ie the american market, and not just increasing receivables, but cash going in the bank), so I can 'forgive' them in this respect

[blobbles]

Way I see it:

+ Revenue % growth good, revenue probably not enough really. This is where we were expecting them to be last year.
+ Around 3000+ paid tests in the US
+ Enough cash for another 2/3 year.
+ Science being backed up.

- Not enough cash to see through to profitability (as previously guided)
- Further dilution to ~375m shares about to happen. Me thinks 100m won't be enough, they need to aim higher.
- Not tracking to 100m in 3 years as far as I can see. More signups required, more work on the ground in the US in the macro environment, not just the micros, which is where they seem to be concentrating now.
- No significant announcements regarding CMS, Kaiser (hopefully a bit later) or the ex soldiers organisation (forget their name!)
- 35m new money... but how long to profitability? No talk of it now.
- Potential to be distracted in SE Asia, should be all go in the US first. SE Asia is mostly low wage economies, only Singapore has a decent currency conversion and the market is the same size as NZ. Nothing exciting moving to SE Asia as far as I can see, possibly Malaysia as well but the test price would have to go a lot lower methinks. If they were hitting Japan, that would be a different story.

As my minuses outweigh my positives I have a -ve outlook regarding SP. I expect a drop to 62c then if no further announcements possibly drift lower. If they one of the big 3 announcements happens the SP outlook would be very very positive methinks.

[winner69]

So it is $100m in mid 2018

David really excited that NEW investors have done due diligence and are keen to buy in.

Whose selling down? Or maybe just take the money from these keen punters and build that war chest up (new share)

Wow, exciting eh. At least David is


http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/201756304

[winner69]

So it seems "In FY16, Pacific Edge anticipates net cash outflow including specifically earmarked initiatives and existing operations of $15.2M"

Sort of implies that revenues won't be that high .... If expenses etc go to $20m sales then $5m

So 2 years to take $5m annual sales to $100m (this $100m in 2018 has been said often with no rebuttal)

[Dentie]

So it is $100m in mid 2018

David really excited that NEW investors have done due diligence and are keen to buy in.

Whose selling down? Or maybe just take the money from these keen punters and build that war chest up (new share)

Wow, exciting eh. At least David is


http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/201756304

Yes, a shame some Kiwi's only look for reasons not to invest in a company. In fact it is a pity they can't see the real story. I am sure there are more sophisticated "external" investors who understand the PEB story and who will buy into PEB once we can push the SP down enough for them.

For example...we always seem to talk of "cash burn" as if it is a bad thing .... putting cash into a black hole with no returning yield. Most of the cash seems to be going to the sales and marketing - which of course is needed to generate the sales. The User programmes take up cash also, but again this is required marketing. The yield will come over time. This is what "investment" is about. Based on some of the comments - how many see their investments into the likes of Kiwisaver as "cash burn"? I would much rather be invested into PEB.

Also, that capital raisings are a bad thing too because they only dilute the other holdings etc. Please tell me how a growth orientated company is supposed to find the necessary capital to fund that growth? It is impossible to do it from the sales revenue in the early stages so apart from winning some grand lottery, there is only equity (capital raising from shareholders) and debt (borrowing from a finance source). Why would you weigh down the company with interest payments while it is trying to grow? This is an absolute no-brainer!

As a shameless self confessed contrarian investor (with an independent thinking brain), I am more than happy with where PEB is and where they are going - based on what I know today. I know the short termers will feel frustrated at the perceived lack of progress ... but good things take time.

As for the SP...I couldn't care less where it is for the next 2 or 3 years...unless something unforeseen happens in the meantime.

[Minerbarejet]

We have just been given the results for the first FULL year of revenue from the US.
This means there are 4 more FY reports to be presented, not three not two but four.
Not a bad effort for the FIRST FULL year based on revenues from Cxbladder DETECT ONLY.
Basically from Americas Choice, Stratose, and Fedmed. Given the 7 month startup window, if applicable, then Multiplan has only contributed 3 months or so to this FY just presented.
Triage should not have this delay with customers already signed up.

[nextbigthing]

Yes, a shame some Kiwi's only look for reasons not to invest in a company. In fact it is a pity they can't see the real story. I am sure there are more sophisticated "external" investors who understand the PEB story and who will buy into PEB once we can push the SP down enough for them.

For example...we always seem to talk of "cash burn" as if it is a bad thing .... putting cash into a black hole with no returning yield. Most of the cash seems to be going to the sales and marketing - which of course is needed to generate the sales. The User programmes take up cash also, but again this is required marketing. The yield will come over time. This is what "investment" is about. Based on some of the comments - how many see their investments into the likes of Kiwisaver as "cash burn"? I would much rather be invested into PEB.

Also, that capital raisings are a bad thing too because they only dilute the other holdings etc. Please tell me how a growth orientated company is supposed to find the necessary capital to fund that growth? It is impossible to do it from the sales revenue in the early stages so apart from winning some grand lottery, there is only equity (capital raising from shareholders) and debt (borrowing from a finance source). Why would you weigh down the company with interest payments while it is trying to grow? This is an absolute no-brainer!

As a shameless self confessed contrarian investor (with an independent thinking brain), I am more than happy with where PEB is and where they are going - based on what I know today. I know the short termers will feel frustrated at the perceived lack of progress ... but good things take time.

As for the SP...I couldn't care less where it is for the next 2 or 3 years...unless something unforeseen happens in the meantime.

Wow Dentie. I can't believe your take on it. Whatever works for you I guess.

At what point would you say enough is enough though and pull the pin?