PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[nextbigthing]

For the sake of a balanced argument. The underwriters get a measly 1.5% or so. $34M x 1.5% = $500k roughly.

Potentially being left with all that stock for the sake of $500k is hardly worth it right, unless....... you know something we don't.

Would an underwriter jump in potentially with $34M waving about and just hand it over? No way. You'd want to know a decent amount about everything before signing up, be kept in the loop very closely.

So if they have confidence with more information, maybe we should too?

PS I certainly hope they didn't throw up to $34M at an 'exciting opportunity in Singapore'

[skid]

From where im sitting its looking very dangerous for the underwriters--(Its just a few cents away from the issue price) If many dont think the small(1c?)value equals the risk of shares having to be dumped then they could not be blamed for passing on this one.

In terms of the underwriters having inside knowledge--I think that may be illegal--I wouldnt think PEB would go out on that limb again after their recent problems.

If you have confidence (faith?) from something that obscure then go for it--but basically what we are seeing in terms of hard cold facts,is that the SP is very close to the issue price that the underwriters are financing---This goes beyond what holders are hoping come to pass in terms of fundamentals and projections.--Would you talk your best friend into investing ATM?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I would no longer touch this stock until I see major sales.

I lose count of the promises that have been made and then never spoken of again. This should ring alarm bells! Without going too far back (look back in history, the false promises are endless), remember how Spain was going to take off, but then PEB made no mention of it as it failed. Then there was Australia. And then there was the previous capital raising taking them through to profitability. This is where my main issue lies. They have made no mention of why that has failed to take them to profitability. Why aren't you shareholders demanding answers to such a simple question that any investor must want to know about their company. Don't even get me started about the false claims made to media and questionable trading practices. Does anyone see a trend? If not, open your eyes! YOUR company is bull****ing you.

I'm not questioning PEB's product. But come on, management have failed shareholders time and time again and have never given reasons why they have failed (or made excuses). Management should have some balls and tell the owners of company they are running. This stock should not be touched based on the incompetent management.

[trader_jackson]

I see now that many people have lost confidence in management, and have presented very good arguments, which I understand and thank them for sharing (it all helps) in fact I remember a while back people arguing that the product isn't good and/or much better products already exist... seems in more recent times this has subsided.

The way I see it is that I would rather have "bad" (or at least as some people would believe) management with a great product, than great management trying to sell a dud (because we all know long term that doesn't work).

Ultimately, I would think it is hard for management to make reliable estimates being in a speculative sector where things can quite literally change overnight, if it had been listed on the NZX for 20 years + (and therefore a much more mature company), then I could understand investors frustration in management. But given PEB has only been on the NZX for just over 10 years, of which only relatively recently (last couple of years) has it turned more commercial, I'm going to "let management off", but only just.

But in say 5-10 years time if things have not materialized (ie sales numbers simply not there) then and only then (I believe) can one say management are "bad"... who knows, maybe 3-4 years from now, when PEB should be around $100m in Revenues the arguments management are "bad" will subside...

PS: I always like this thread, very interesting seeing everyone's ideas (and I like to present mine)

[trader_jackson]

Well I said "bad" because I personally don't believe management are, and if they were on the "bad" side I think it would be alot easier (and cheaper) to improve management that to try improve the product (although this could be disputed).

I think DD has great knowledge of his product, his company, and what he needs to be done. He (and management) may not be the best at making predictions, and as soon as "he is off track" it seems everyone jumps on explaining how "bad" management is without even giving them much of a chance (remember its only be a more 'commercial' operations for 1-2 years, not 10-20 or more, we aren't talking about New Zealand Oil and Gas!)

As I said before, I look forward to looking back at PEB in 5-10 years, as I think it is only then can people begin to comment on if management is "bad"

After all... "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." - Niels Bohr

[Whitebeard]

Looks like collecting money in the US health system is like wading through mud..

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...paper-payments

[winner69]

'Bad' or 'good' management is not the way to look at it. It's more about management capability.

Nobody has questioned PEB capability of coming up with a product and getting it used. after all they are essentially scientists and they have successfully commercialsed it, yes the product is being used.

Several have questioned PEB capability of actually making money out of it, especially in the USA. From all accounts (even Balance noted this) the Board recognised Darlings deficiencies in this area (you can't be perfect) and beefed up the necessary capability in Pedusa.

If so is that 'bad' management. Maybe the challenges in the USA are just to great to overcome, especially for a non-USA product.

Is a worry about this global expansion, taking the world by storm. That again is. New set of capabilities which I doubt PEB really has at the current time.

[BlackPeter]

After the capital raising is exactly when things could get ugly--It really depends on how many take up the issue--If alot dont,then the underwriters will be ''caught'' with alot of shares that they then will have to unload.
If all goes well with the cap raising,as you are no doubt hoping,then it should be a safer situation.
This is a dangerous period where newbies should use caution.
There will be plenty of time to have another look if things settle into safer territory.

The SP sitting 1c over the cap issue price is not a great sign

Agreed - a moderate plunge below the issue price wouldn't be unexpected - and, unless something happens soon to raise the SP, actually quite likely. I never can understand people who buy into a share (be it IPO or CR) and sell immediately after with a loss - but given that it happens frequently, it does seem to be a quite prevailing investment strategy .

Not sure though, whether I expect things to turn "ugly" soon (depends obviously on your definition of this word). Remember - they still have a good product - and after the IPO they have as well enough money to keep them going for another handful of years ... so don't expect a crash and burn ... more a moderate dip and moderate rise afterwards (obviously - all other things being unchanged)

Discl: hold (a small parcel) and not yet sure whether I want to exercise my options (depends obviously on the SP).

[skid]

Well I said "bad" because I personally don't believe management are, and if they were on the "bad" side I think it would be alot easier (and cheaper) to improve management that to try improve the product (although this could be disputed).

I think DD has great knowledge of his product, his company, and what he needs to be done. He (and management) may not be the best at making predictions, and as soon as "he is off track" it seems everyone jumps on explaining how "bad" management is without even giving them much of a chance (remember its only be a more 'commercial' operations for 1-2 years, not 10-20 or more, we aren't talking about New Zealand Oil and Gas!)

As I said before, I look forward to looking back at PEB in 5-10 years, as I think it is only then can people begin to comment on if management is "bad"

After all... "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." - Niels Bohr

TJ,I realize you are new to this having just joined,but really,thats not much of an argument to invest at this time--As I speak shares are selling on market at the same price as the Cap raising offer(a drop of 1 more cent and they will be chaper on the open market than the cap raise.
I doubt if the underwriters will allow this to continue but once the issue is closed it could get ugly.
Why on earth would you take that kind of risk?
We may very well be seeing the 50s when that happens.
It doesnt mean the company is written off,but atm it may well be overvalued.
Thats easy to miss for those who were involved when it fetched 1.70 but comparing is flawed logic.
You have to start from now. Its looking like its going to be a slow grind.
We dont seem to be in that situation where the SP can rocket any moment and get in before you miss the boat(theres actually more of a chance of the opposite at this stage.
Its a good time to stand back and wait till the dust clears.
With a 4-5yr outlook you have all the time in the world(even at the pidilly term dep rates you could easily get 20% on your dosh in that time period) Cool heads prevail

[skid]

Agreed - a moderate plunge below the issue price wouldn't be unexpected - and, unless something happens soon to raise the SP, actually quite likely. I never can understand people who buy into a share (be it IPO or CR) and sell immediately after with a loss - but given that it happens frequently, it does seem to be a quite prevailing investment strategy .

Not sure though, whether I expect things to turn "ugly" soon (depends obviously on your definition of this word). Remember - they still have a good product - and after the IPO they have as well enough money to keep them going for another handful of years ... so don't expect a crash and burn ... more a moderate dip and moderate rise afterwards (obviously - all other things being unchanged)

Discl: hold (a small parcel) and not yet sure whether I want to exercise my options (depends obviously on the SP).

''Ugly'' was only in relation to the SP in this instance--It could plunge before stabilizing --for those not holding it should be a far easier decision than for those holding(although for those holding the cap raise may still be an easy decision)