PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Minerbarejet]

I thought a few weeks ago you said you were leaving us for good

Good to have you back and fighting fit as well.

Thanks- I was asked to stay on as a distributor of glad tidings as they come to light by others who don't have the time to engage in this verbal combat such as it is.

[Biscuit]

Thanks- I was asked to stay on as a distributor of glad tidings as they come to light by others who don't have the time to engage in this verbal combat such as it is.

I'm unlikely to invest in this type of company myself. Interesting that there is such a dichotomy of opinion. The only ones who could really have a good idea of the prospects from here are the people running the company and you don't know if you can believe what they say. The question I would ask myself is what did they promise at the beginning and how well have they delivered that?

[Bing]

I initially took the $100 mil in 5 years to be an aspirational statement. I think the stars would really have to align for PEB to make that now (whether in 2018 or 2019). If they don’t reach the 100 mil but are showing strong growth then I will be happy.

I’ve decided to give the company until the May 2016 results announcement before deciding what to do. By this time I expect the VA and CMS agreements to be signed which will hopefully drive up the share price. I doubt the KP agreement will have been signed by then by the looks of things but you never know. I would be looking for the May results to be at least in line with analyst expectations (7-9 mil) in the absence of any guidance from PEB. This should calm the market at least.

The KP agreement would be a game changer for PEB in my opinion. It should be considered that the fact that KP is carrying out a large trial means that they must have a reasonable expectation that the product will be of benefit to them. They will have many suitors all trying to convince them to adopt their new drug, product or test.

I am however worried about the many missed targets so far and consider the risk of failure to be rising as time drags on. It appears that the VA agreement is in the bag (“in the final stages of review”) but the CMS is still “progressing well.” DD did talk of the need to have testimony from a medical professional and to have the recently published studies on hand to submit in support of their CMS application in the last conference call so hopefully things will now “progress.” If the other bladder cancer tests out there got VA and CMS approval (correct me if I am wrong) I see no reason why PEB won't as well.

[pierre]

Welcome back Miner…… PEB Interim results due 26 Nov….. I suggest we all take a deep breath and wait for the results to speak for themselves.

Good idea. Everyone is simply speculating on what might happen. Despite the "tens of thousands" of tests drama, the company has not given specific guidance so we will all just have to wait and see.

If I was DD I would be holding off signing any new agreements until a day or two prior to the 26 November results announcement....just saying!

[OldGuy]

It appears that the VA agreement is in the bag (“in the final stages of review”)

Careful with making such bold inferences. They could also be denied in the final review and have to start the whole process again. It is already about 18 months late and could easily stretch to 5 years at this rate.

David Darling is a highly incompetent businessman, right from his dress sense down to the language he uses and the way that he engages with stakeholders.

[Bing]

David Darling is a highly incompetent businessman, right from his dress sense down to the language he uses and the way that he engages with stakeholders.

Oh I don't know about that. I thought he looked quite dapper in the last Investor Update. Wearing a tie and everything...

[Minerbarejet]

Good idea. Everyone is simply speculating on what might happen. Despite the "tens of thousands" of tests drama, the company has not given specific guidance so we will all just have to wait and see.

If I was DD I would be holding off signing any new agreements until a day or two prior to the 26 November results announcement....just saying!

I can think of several hundred thousand reasons why he should not.
Hope lessons have been learnt from that debacle with FMA.

[Snow Leopard]

...
There are no "free" tests.
All User Programs tests that have been done by Pacific Edge in its short commercial enterprise in the US have been through a negotiated pricing structure for each individual client. The terms of which are commercially sensitive and may differ between users.
As a result the only way Pacific Edge can give some indication of how things are going is by showing lab throughput otherwise it shouldn't be too difficult to reverse engineer revenues from User Programs.
It would perhaps make sense that these User Programs should at the very least cover Pacific Edge's costs, this being the minimum price Pacific Edge would accept under any UP negotiations.

I so hope that your source is wrong about that, can we get confirmation?

I would much prefer that (f'rinstance) all of last years $1M9 of product sales was from proper commercial sales and not from some (unknown as always) combination of a lesser amount of true commercial sales and contributions from UP tests.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: No PEB.

[skid]

I initially took the $100 mil in 5 years to be an aspirational statement. I think the stars would really have to align for PEB to make that now (whether in 2018 or 2019). If they don’t reach the 100 mil but are showing strong growth then I will be happy.

I’ve decided to give the company until the May 2016 results announcement before deciding what to do. By this time I expect the VA and CMS agreements to be signed which will hopefully drive up the share price. I doubt the KP agreement will have been signed by then by the looks of things but you never know. I would be looking for the May results to be at least in line with analyst expectations (7-9 mil) in the absence of any guidance from PEB. This should calm the market at least.

The KP agreement would be a game changer for PEB in my opinion. It should be considered that the fact that KP is carrying out a large trial means that they must have a reasonable expectation that the product will be of benefit to them. They will have many suitors all trying to convince them to adopt their new drug, product or test.

I am however worried about the many missed targets so far and consider the risk of failure to be rising as time drags on. It appears that the VA agreement is in the bag (“in the final stages of review”) but the CMS is still “progressing well.” DD did talk of the need to have testimony from a medical professional and to have the recently published studies on hand to submit in support of their CMS application in the last conference call so hopefully things will now “progress.” If the other bladder cancer tests out there got VA and CMS approval (correct me if I am wrong) I see no reason why PEB won't as well.

If thats the case--it should be relatively simple to see who has gotten approval and how they are doing.

[skid]

Good idea. Everyone is simply speculating on what might happen. Despite the "tens of thousands" of tests drama, the company has not given specific guidance so we will all just have to wait and see.

If I was DD I would be holding off signing any new agreements until a day or two prior to the 26 November results announcement....just saying!

They quite often throw in some sort of ''sweetener'' just before the results--signing a new agreement doesnt seem likely given their track record to date---My guess--there will be some announcement on a new Oz partner to replace the one that fell over.
It gives a nice look of ''potential'' without haveing to have to come up with the goods.

I cant see the numbers being that great, given the test numbers already stated--since we are all guessing (as usual) my guess is that aside from ho hum results,they are going to have to rely on a song and dance on how glowing the future looks.

When this result comes out--have a good look at the sales numbers and then think about the fact that they are still projecting they are going to reach their goal of an astronomical 100mil and then draw your own conclusions(or even 75mil-to keep miner happy)