PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[emearg]

I have just started thinking about this stock today so go easy on me if my questions have already been covered on this thread. Apologies in advance!


Chalkies article says:
Bladderchek, for example, aims to spot high levels of a protein called NMP22, which is released from cancer cells into the urine. Used alongside cytoscopy, Bladderchek provides up to 99 per cent sensitivity, its makers claim.


On it's own Bladderchek isn't very useful finding only 38% of cancer cases.


Cxbladder detects 62% of cancer cases. Better but still not enough to rely on.


So my question is what sensitivity do Cxbladder and cytoscopy provide?


Is it higher than "up to 99% sensitivity"?


If not (and this is key to the following question) why will doctors use it? Dollar savings won't be enough when lives/law suits are on the line.

[emearg]

I will do STC but I will be extra grateful if somebody wants to save me the trouble and answer my questions?

You trading or long term holding these STC?

Do you remember ICP Bio STC?

[GR8DAY]

ALL YOUR ANSWERS HERE EMEARG..........hope that helps. Not only are their results outstanding BUT also their method of testing is without comparison. Ask yourself this simple question...." would your preference be to pee in a cup or to have something long and pointy inserted up and/or into your person?"........NO CONTEST!!


http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/news/article/34

[blobbles]

I am fully with STC on this, PEB is delivering a product that is innovative, better than the rest and its delivery method is considerably better than its predecessors. These are all the basics of reasons to invest in a company for growth. At the same time, they seem to have a strong IP to back this up, are building investment in foreign countries while the NZD is at all time highs and appear to be implementing their product commercialisation well.

For me, with the current information, there is only one way this stock will go over the next year... frankly I feel that it would take a lot of effort from them or a competitor for them to fail. Risky stock? I really don't see it as risky, I feel they are on the cusp of greatness, or a huge buyout from a big international.

On the softer side they are selling a product that can directly save lives through better detection of cancers. I have absolutely no problem in investing in a company that does this.

[janner]

Would like to draw your attention to post 6..

Written some 7 years ago by Lizard.. It still has some relevance today..

Maybe they have finally cracked it..

[barney]

At the annual shareholders meeting David Darling mentioned that they were working on some new deals. In Wednesdays ODT article he says that " into the new year, we will have more announcements." It looks like they are near to completing some new deals. This could be with urologists in the US or entry into other markets such as Europe or Asia,or both. Whatever, it looks like more good news to come.

[blobbles]

And what happens if they grab more than 1% of the US bladder cancer diagnostic market?

My bet is this % will rise to greater than 25% pretty fast (1-2 years) once it becomes known their accuracy is higher and their product has is much more usable for patients... after all, what doctor would be wanting to use old technology that is horribly uncomfortable for patients and potentially less accurate? But that's just my guess/wish. After that point I suspect the competition might start to catch up, though if they have their IP in place, that might be difficult. The question, if my scenario comes to pass, which is highly optimistic, is whether they produce enough of their products to keep up with demand.

The other thing you didn't note STC is potential earnings from Europe as their Spanish lab comes online...

As I have said, I am highly optimistic about their chances, but I do feel that my optimism has some grounding in reality. If they can keep up, keep pushing their product, keep improving their product and keep their IP in place... they could be huge.

25% after 2 years would mean 187,500 tests * $800 = optimistic US income of $150 million @25% profit rate (I guess a margin lower than yours STC!) = $37.5 million.

Now, if their product is all that they claim (needs a few more, particularly large scale tests yet), my guess is they could grab 80% of the market in 5 years. That's what I mean by huge... it would translate to $100's of millions in profits.

[janner]

HOWEVER - I note it is light volumes. It's the mum and dad punters rushing in. )

Nothing wrong with those mum and dad punters coming in Sparky..

They have taken a thrashing over the past 30 odd years.. Good to see them having learnt, and now regaining confidence in the market..

It is when the " Office Boy " comes is... etc..etc..

[blobbles]

...
As I have said, I am highly optimistic about their chances...
...

I don't mind someone calling me for being over-optimistic here, most likely I am. There are a number of other players in the market who could be coming out with similarly accurate diagnostic tests. But PEB appears to be near enough to first to market with a product that is this accurate... if full scale tests and real world tests gives the accuracy they are saying is possible... then how can they go wrong?

Note that CxBladder, and other urine based tests are usually done (at the moment) in conjunction with invasive cystoscopy. Cystoscopy can then tell you virtually 100% if you have cancer or not through a biopsy. The incumbent at the moment for urine tests appears to be the Alere NMP22 BladderChek test but it is fairly innacurate. In addition the Mcm5 urine test is also out there, but has similar accuracy. Early indications are that CxBladder picks up all the cancers the these two pick up and many more, but a full scale testing regime is really required (I believe anyway...). Cytology is commonly used as well and is very accurate, more so than CxBladder, but (I assume) much more expensive and subjective. Cytology looks for abnormal cells in blood/urine using the Mark I eyeball i.e. through a microscope!

Oh yeah, some more tests include: immunocyt (claims are 87% accuracy with a combination of 2 tests so pretty good), BTA Tests (can be used at home, questionable), and UroVysion (I can't remember much about them, but the tests sounded pretty accurate). As such PEB won't have it easy, but if they get their execution right and keep improving their product, whose to say they won't be the incumbent in a few years time...

[janner]

Hmmmm...

I am the most disbelieving person on Earth.. Craic would be the only one on this forum to understand me..

Hancocks started this site in 2005.. and has posted 19 times since..

Hancock !!.. Would you be willing to tell us about your holdings ??.. Including any Trusts etc. that you may have an interest in ??