PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[When the bass drops]

I can proudly acknowledge those who have written on this forum and via PM thanking me for my contributions which have saved them from losses and/or more losses, and for assisting them to make gains.

Can you say the same for yourself or other PEB(lers)?

I don't doubt that Balance. I can't deny you've made some good picks in the past, that people have followed and benefited from. However when a poster starts denigrating even good news, which I feel some of us are including yourself, their views go from rational to caustic (for the sake of drama it seems).

Let's all raise the level as STMOD puts it (myself included), however a little vent is necessary sometimes. I don't apologise.

[bottomfeeder]

A lot of good news for Wynyard over the years as well. I am cautious about PEB and when they will get into positive Cash Flow.

[iluab]

A lot of good news for Wynyard over the years as well. I am cautious about PEB and when they will get into positive Cash Flow.

And, it's looking increasingly likely PEB will need a CR next year. But, will they any longer be able to raise capital on the NZX after so so so many failed commercial goals and expectations, I reckon the next time around will be challenging for them, and they may fall short of what they want at any price.

If only they could gather revenues to a timley plan all would be rosy, they are making progress, it's just too damn slowly to prospectively remain solvent.

Harbour still have around 9% of PEB just like they have around 9% trapped in WYN.

Remember this expectation;


PEB Harbour Revenue Projection.jpg

[Schrodinger]

Interesting watching this from the sidelines. What is the general feel about operating cashflows? If it is near or above the -$17M this year they will have to have a stunning increase in sales to stop another raise. Also to avoid a "Wynyard" they will have to show good governance if the sales dont match up. Could be a discounted raise if thats the case...who will invest and at what price?

[iluab]

Interesting watching this from the sidelines. What is the general feel about operating cashflows? If it is near or above the -$17M this year they will have to have a stunning increase in sales to stop another raise. Also to avoid a "Wynyard" they will have to show good governance if the sales dont match up. Could be a discounted raise if thats the case...who will invest and at what price?

The last Edison report (June) estimated FY17 outturns as 11.3m in revenues, EBITDA of -6.7m, NPAT of -7.5m, with 20.8m cash on hand. Although, every report Edison produce they tend to downgrade their estimates yet again, and that EBITDA estimate just seems very optimistic to me. But lets see, we get HY results on the 24th.

We had some good news in regard to the KP study, but it's unlikley that would translate to meaningful revenues in a meaningful time frame.

Personally, at this time, I wouldn't be buying PEB above 15c, but lets see, perhaps they will surprise us next week for the first time in three years or so, I genuinely hope so for shareholders.

[OldGuy]

having already a lost substantial on PEB, I would probably take another punt if the SP falls below 10 cents.

[When the bass drops]

having already a lost substantial on PEB, I would probably take another punt if the SP falls below 10 cents.

Hi OldGuy, what was the timeframe that you were looking at for your original hold when you bought into PEB? Was it a small part of a wider portfolio, or was your intention to buy a sizeable holding (above weight) to support the biotech industry?

[OldGuy]

I got caught up in all the hype and hysteria towards the end of 2013, when Chris Swann was on record saying that they expected to complete "several tens of thousands of tests" in 2014. I ended up buying without doing my own research and entered near the top of its peak, only to sell out about a year ago at 40 cents.

After buying in, I started to do a lot of research on the company and its governance. Then, I attended a meeting with DD at the Ellereslie race course in Auckland (after which I warned others here that things were looking bad).

Not only was I really pissed off by the hype spun by Swann, but I was hit by the fact that DD had very little commercial nous/experience, particularly in the US market (which my own family successfully penetrated years ago). I also realised that DD knew very little about simple economic concepts like demand elasticity and that PEB's pricing strategy was largely arbitrary and unlikely to be optimal. Quite frankly I was shocked by just how bad the commercial side of the business was, and held on in the hope that they would succeed anyway. Fast forward to early this year, and became clear that it just wasnt going to happen. So, I exited and took the loss on the chin.

Lesson learned - DYOR!

[Dentie]

I got caught up in all the hype and hysteria towards the end of 2013, when Chris Swann was on record saying that they expected to complete "several tens of thousands of tests" in 2014. I ended up buying without doing my own research and entered near the top of its peak, only to sell out about a year ago at 40 cents.

After buying in, I started to do a lot of research on the company and its governance. Then, I attended a meeting with DD at the Ellereslie race course in Auckland (after which I warned others here that things were looking bad).

Not only was I really pissed off by the hype spun by Swann, but I was hit by the fact that DD had very little commercial nous/experience, particularly in the US market (which my own family successfully penetrated years ago). I also realised that DD knew very little about simple economic concepts like demand elasticity and that PEB's pricing strategy was largely arbitrary and unlikely to be optimal. Quite frankly I was shocked by just how bad the commercial side of the business was, and held on in the hope that they would succeed anyway. Fast forward to early this year, and became clear that it just wasnt going to happen. So, I exited and took the loss on the chin.

Lesson learned - DYOR!

Well Old Guy, you have impressed me with your honesty - so my hat goes off to you sir!

Although accurate analysis is easy to put together retrospectively and hence easy to make sense of previous decisions (good or bad), it is very much harder to do it in a predictive manner.

You are correct when you say DYOR - and it is especially important to do it prior to buying in.

I genuinely wish you better luck with your future investments.

[OldGuy]

Thanks Dentie.

While it sounds totally cliche, I would actually be over the moon if my confession helped others rethink their own investments before things (potentially) fall apart.

To me, that is the whole point of this site. Shame that all the angst and stupid posts have eroded it...