PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[biker]

Missed the recent (speed) boat but will take the cruise liner for the medium/longer term and ease into a few at these levels. Quite like the sound of this company, especially based in the mainland, and Otago at that! ( in spite of the terrible history of several Dunedin based companies)

[biker]

If the company can deliver on some modest revenue in the USA and Europe, you will probably double your money by the end of the year. Welcome aboard the Pacific Edge express!

Thanks STC, good to be here. ( at the moment! Could also halve by the end of the year if they don't get it right)

[emearg]

If the company can deliver on some modest revenue in the USA and Europe, you will probably double your money by the end of the year. Welcome aboard the Pacific Edge express!

What do you consider modest? 1 million? 5 million? 20 million? What will be enough to bump the market cap to 330 million in your opinion?

[emearg]

I refer you to my thoughts in post 176!

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...l=1#post388715

Maths are a little fuzzy, but reasonably indicative.

Thanks STC. I shall watch this one with interest over the coming months.

I certainly hope they make a success of it but I feel the company is too overvalued at this stage for me to buy into it. Should they demonstrate the ability to sell their product I will reconsider my position.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Thanks STC. I shall watch this one with interest over the coming months.

I certainly hope they make a success of it but I feel the company is too overvalued at this stage for me to buy into it. Should they demonstrate the ability to sell their product I will reconsider my position.

I see where you are coming from (everyone has differing tolerances to risk), however I don't feel it's overvalued, the market is simply factoring in future potential profits. Obviously the market is beginning to think that the chances of good profits is getting greater. Like STC said, it's an educated gamble. If they do get modest profits in the first year, then the current share price is an absolute steal. If they don't, then the current share price is overvaluing them. David Darling has said that he hopes to hit $100 million gross revenue in the fifth year (Obviously this may or may not happen, but is a good indication of their plans). Sure, it would have been nicer to buy in before the recent spike at 40c, or even 20c, but if you think they will make then your entry price doesn't matter... Think of the potential price in the future.

I'd say that the current boost in share price is due to a few possible reasons. PEB has been getting a lot of media attention lately, so it's likely a lot of people are becoming aware of the stock (lots of mum and dad investors, however I have seen quite a few very large buyers appearing in the last week or two). It's also likely that many people have done a bit of profit taking after a fantastic year and are looking for further investments. As a lot of blue chips are getting fully valued (there's still some good buys) it is likely they are looking for something which can provide good growth. It's also possible that news of agreements with Urologists have been leaked, however this would be purely speculative!

I believe PEB has a very good shot of making it. If they don't make it, I wont be disappointed that I invested in them. It is, in my eyes, a very worthy gamble.

Disclosure: PEB has become one of my largest holdings.

[binary]

I see where you are coming from (everyone has differing tolerances to risk), however I don't feel it's overvalued, the market is simply factoring in future potential profits. Obviously the market is beginning to think that the chances of good profits is getting greater.

I would have to agree. It is difficult to value PEB because of the risk factors surrounding it, however at its current value the risk vs. reward is still low.

Using STC calculations a 1% market share in the U.S; which in my opinion is conservative, would double the current value of the company.

For a premium product with the highest rate of successful detection and at good value it would not be unrealistic to expect 10%+ market share over the next 2 years potentially creating $4+ stock.

Traders looking for a quick 10-20% have missed the boat however at 60c an investment with a long term view could reap massive gains.

Although emerag's approach is probably the best way to look at PEB for new investors in the company. I would suspect a lot of risk can be mitigated by waiting a few months for financial announcements on the state of sales, whilst still being able to pick up the stock under $1.

[skid]

I,like most,wish this co. all the best .
Think Ill wait and see [like emerag]
Its certainly had a major run and I cant help but feel that the only difference between this co. now and 3 weeks ago,is market hype.
Mr market can be an emotional beast at times.
Good for the co.though.
One thing for sure,if they are succesful-NZ could do with more innovations like this.

[GR8DAY]

Even if you were half right Sparky those are encouraraging returns/forecasts. PEB is also my largest holding .........and I mean "holding" in the true sense of the word. I have done a lot of trading over the years but I believe PEB is the perfect stock to sit on longterm. The growth prospects should be steady (if not spectacular) over the coming months and years and hopefully this will be reflected in the SPrice. I must admit I have been tempted to flick a few just of late but resisted the temptation for fear of not being able to repurchase and I see PEB as the sort of stock that could quite easily double in value overnight on the release of more good news........not worth the risk in my opinion!!

[Dej]

Just some food for thought here.

PEB depends on the sale of its bladder cancer detection product to create revenue, and it’s in its preliminary stages of doing this now. My main concern with this is, this isn’t an over the counter/do it yourself test, it still has to be done at a clinic. I can see that some urologists will be upset with this product as it is taking profit out of their pockets as they no longer get to charge you for the 15 minute surgery that it usually takes. Sure, doctors are meant to act for the people, but at the end of the day they are also trying to run a business, and this is like direct competition.

Now, a saving grace of this is that most of the money that pays for this treatment/surgery will come from health insurance companies. They will always seek out the lowest cost alternative, so this is a point in favor of PEB. I wonder if insurance companies have actually looked into this, because if say Southern Cross was to recommend that a patient uses PEBs product rather than getting surgery, this will cause a big increase in sales, expecially in the states.

Will be interesting to see what motives the insurance companies have, as aforementioned with SPC, you could find that health insurance companies are run by urologists.




Disc: Have my money elsewhere currently - but am concidering PEB

[JimHickey]

I'd bet money they are/have been marketing directly to the insurance forms for some time. Know idea whats supporting this run, cant see it holding till march at these levels. What price/when are they likely to be included in the NZX50? Going by STC they are already there on price, what other criteria do they need to meet? E: how do you add paragraphs? lol. First time posting