PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

**Balance** · 12-10-2018, 11:14 AM

Originally Posted by Balance

No announcement since 23rd August - a whole month of no PR releases!

Not necessarily a bad thing for PEB to be quiet.

Market is now looking for concrete announcements - the days of feel good 'it's just around the corner' are long gone.

WHAT? An announcement?

Step in the right direction (I nearly choked writing that) but PEB will still run out of cash very soon.

**davflaws** · 12-10-2018, 11:39 AM

Well done Balance ! - it is some years since I have seen you acknowledge any progress. I agree that it will be a "close run thing" in relation to cash burn.

And my ATM has headed South so far that it might be almost worth swapping my PEB for a couple of hundred shares in Jaynes "deck fund".

**skid** · 12-10-2018, 03:33 PM

Originally Posted by davflaws

Well done Balance ! - it is some years since I have seen you acknowledge any progress. I agree that it will be a "close run thing" in relation to cash burn.

And my ATM has headed South so far that it might be almost worth swapping my PEB for a couple of hundred shares in Jaynes "deck fund".

Golly....It must be just about time to replace that ''deck'' the management built so many years ago.......:>)

There is certainly no doubt Pharmaceutical companies have been fleecing the American public....shame PEB hasnt gotten in on the action somehow.....(gets back to that age old debate about teaming up with someone right from the start)

Meanwhile ...am I a good luck charm or what?

**Arthur** · 12-10-2018, 08:16 PM

From memory that price is about a third or a half of the price they have been billing at. If it gets Kaiser over the line or people to actually pay for their tests that they have, the new lower price will be a good thing. Revenue > costs will be the only thing that keeps the company solvent.

**BigBob** · 13-10-2018, 10:16 AM

Originally Posted by Balance

WHAT? An announcement?

Step in the right direction (I nearly choked writing that) but PEB will still run out of cash very soon.

Well, they may.... buuuuut...:

If they get reimbursed from CMS when they receive the LCD (as they have previously stated), they do stand to receive a fair chunk of money...

In the last financial year they did 14400 tests of which 82% were billable which is approx 12000. They also stated that about 60% (7200) of commercial sales were for CMS patients. At US$760 a pop that's US$5,472,000 or NZ$ 8,468,800. Add half of that for the current financial year and maybe an another half for previous years, and we're looking at over NZ$16,000,000 when they receive the LCD...!

This is probably a somewhat simplistic view - but you'd think LCD will be coming at some point (soon?) otherwise they presumably wouldn't have published the reimbursement rate...

**Arthur** · 13-10-2018, 12:48 PM

They are not expecting all of the defaulters will pay, but hoping some of them well (as are the long suffering shareholders). My understanding is that at least some of the institutions have told them they will not fund more capital raisings.

**Snow Leopard** · 14-10-2018, 04:30 PM

Even assuming that they get some back pay over the next year the viability of this company is dependent upon a future of ongoing cash flows.

Having a price per test is useful and making NZ$1150 the average price that PEB will get for each test that is actually paid for and working with last years accounts (and making lots of other assumptions of course) then one [that is me

] comes up with the number of: (drum roll)

approx 25,500 paid tests per year for cash flow break even.

Then using the first standard panthera criteria for valuing a high growth company and probably being optimistic on net margins, an (another drum roll)

additional 27,000 paid tests for a total of (last drum roll)

52,500 paid tests per year within five years to justify the current market cap.

So how strong is your faith in this company that they can actually do this?

I will continue to watch from the sidelines.

**Balance** · 14-10-2018, 07:07 PM

Originally Posted by Snow Leopard

Even assuming that they get some back pay over the next year the viability of this company is dependent upon a future of ongoing cash flows.

Having a price per test is useful and making NZ$1150 the average price that PEB will get for each test that is actually paid for and working with last years accounts (and making lots of other assumptions of course) then one [that is me

] comes up with the number of: (drum roll)

approx 25,500 paid tests per year for cash flow break even.

Then using the first standard panthera criteria for valuing a high growth company and probably being optimistic on net margins, an (another drum roll)

additional 27,000 paid tests for a total of (last drum roll)

52,500 paid tests per year within five years to justify the current market cap.

So how strong is your faith in this company that they can actually do this?

I will continue to watch from the sidelines.

US$100m seems so far far far away, doesn't it?