PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

**Dentie** · 27-09-2013, 06:20 AM

Thanks for your in depth post NBT. Gives me a very good understanding of both sides of the story. Would seem very cruel for PEB to have done their homework and gone through all those yankee "hoops" (incl registration and new laboratory etc) only to have some big pocketed pharma company use their influence to deny CX Bladder getting to their own patients. Mind you, when it comes to "THE MONEY", these people over there have proven many times what they are prepared to do to get the stuff. One only has to look at what happened over the past few days in San Francisco.

All that said, I'm holding a decent amount of PEB and I am a solid believer in what they are doing and I'm patient.

Thanks again for your post NBT - appreciated!

**Minerbarejet** · 27-09-2013, 07:01 AM

Good post NBT. Your whole argument is based on " presenting with haematuria". May I suggest that there may be a lot of potential customers in annual checkups amongst the populations mainly for "peace of mind" and to eliminate bladder cancer from the list of suspects amongst those suffering something else in that region of the body.

**nextbigthing** · 27-09-2013, 09:07 AM

Thanks people.

I forgot to mention the dreaded 'unrealised potential' takeover which we know is a risk also!

Winner - Re the decline, I used a 6 month timeframe which shows a very slow decline in shareprice. Like I say it might mean 2 cents. What's holding me back you ask? I'm just waiting to see if someone points out something I've missed, otherwise I'm in.

Minerbarejet - Completely agree. I've deliberately been conservative/pessimistic so things like you mention can only add to the upside.

Hancocks - The current 'standard' seems to be a cytology / nmp22 combo, which I believe CXBladder is superior to. My concern re the 'Pharmaceutical type' companies is that perhaps they supply the cytology equipment, any drugs used in the process, the cleaning fluids, have shares in nmp22 etc. Thus they have an interest that is lucrative and they're willing to spend money to protect. Maybe I've been talking to too many crazies or watched too many movies but I hope you see the point I'm trying to make. I just like to consider all possiblities.

Is anybody out there dark on this stock and if so, why?

Cheers,

NBT

CJ · 27-09-2013, 09:13 AM

Thanks NBT - given how success the product appears to be, I would expect them to get larger market share than you predict. The question for me is how long can they remain in that superior position. You describe the barriers to entry as high - given the money the big phamaco's in the US have, I would just change that to "long", given the time it takes to develop, test, certify, then roll out.

**forest** · 27-09-2013, 09:33 AM

[QUOTE=nextbigthing;429754]Thanks people.

I forgot to mention the dreaded 'unrealised potential' takeover which we know is a risk also!

Winner - Re the decline, I used a 6 month timeframe which shows a very slow decline in shareprice. Like I say it might mean 2 cents. What's holding me back you ask? I'm just waiting to see if someone points out something I've missed, otherwise I'm in.

NBT if you and others join us, PEB share holders, and drive the share price up then we can reduce the chance of an take over before the potential is realised. This 'unrealised potential' takeover might be the only risk we face.

Discloser; I have done my bit to reduce the chance of a takeover.

**Minerbarejet** · 27-09-2013, 09:50 AM

Originally Posted by CJ

Thanks NBT - given how success the product appears to be, I would expect them to get larger market share than you predict. The question for me is how long can they remain in that superior position. You describe the barriers to entry as high - given the money the big phamaco's in the US have, I would just change that to "long", given the time it takes to develop, test, certify, then roll out.

If it is as we have been led to believe that there is 100% success rate or very close to it and this becomes proven why would anyone bother to develop test certify and rollout a competitor. The only thing would be providing a choice of product which smacks of the supermarket Would not that money be better spent finding some other area that requires attention. 100% is 100%.

**MAC** · 27-09-2013, 10:18 AM

Over the last few weeks we’ve had some posts providing some novel valuation methods for PEB.

Valuing biotech companies seems to require a lot of research, most of us are not doctors or technicians and the potential of the technology can take some time to assess. Once comfortable with that, the fundamental valuation methods commonly applied are really not too much different from other types of companies.

Below are some links which I’ve found useful for biotechnology analysis and valuation over the last 12 months, happy to share with others.

http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_CA/c...42f00aRCRD.htm

http://www.investopedia.com/articles...hvaluation.asp

http://www.appraisers.org/Libraries/...ence.sflb.ashx

**Minerbarejet** · 27-09-2013, 10:18 AM

Originally Posted by Hancocks

I wonder if the fact that there are (or were) 4 bladder cancer urine tests in the American market means the big pharmas haven't successfully lobbied against any service provider or product thus far. And, is there a very high risk of a big pharma losing major credibility if they tried? I think so.

Perhaps we are looking at an ethical issue with this. Denying access to a superior product in healthcare is not a good look.

**nextbigthing** · 27-09-2013, 10:19 AM

Originally Posted by Hancocks

I wonder if the fact that there are (or were) 4 bladder cancer urine tests in the American market means the big pharmas haven't successfully lobbied against any service provider or product thus far. And, is there a very high risk of a big pharma losing major credibility if they tried? I think so.

Perhaps the fact there are or were 4 competitors that haven't cracked it means they have been very successful in their lobbying? Scary thought

NBT