PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Someone who bought in at 40-45c probably doesn't "believe" the PEB story like someone who bought in at half that price a year or more ago

[Dentie]

Gosh the bubble is getting big isn't it!!?

If I owned any I would be selling now and waiting for the fall. I can't see the price holding at these levels until the next reporting period. And what if the news doesn't match expectations? Could be turbulent!

I wish you all the best, and I hope I am wrong but really??

Sir, you've been sounding very nervous & negative ... and you don't appear to be holding any. Is it any wonder markets inexplicably crash? Have you any thoughts on XRO?

[emearg]

Sir, you've been sounding very nervous & negative ... and you don't appear to be holding any.

I made it clear I don't have any so have no reason to be nervous. Negative? In the short term I'm not as positive sales will be as stellar as many posters here think. I have nothing to gain or lose financially by offering this opinion.

Have you any thoughts on XRO?

XRO currently has paying customers.

[CJ]

Hancocks - what is the cost of those tests compared to CxB which I think from reading above is about $1k (??) and is done monthly (??).

Disc: Not a holder as haven't researched enough but PEB does seem to be one of the interesting stocks for 2013.

[Dej]

I agree with SPC.

Just a question to those who are wiser than me. Is it possible for a takeover? I dont know what term would be, but big companies such as Merck will frequently buy out companies/IP like this to have their product, is this possible in PEBs case?

I know for a fact that companies like MSD have whole divisions responsible for researching companies like PEB.

[Dentie]

I'd make a few points thus:

- PEB is out to make a profit from the moment they are commercialised (EG, later this year)- they have the margins which means if the product sells sufficiently, they will make money. Conversely XRO's product is sold at a loss on purpose in order to grow marketshare. They do not yet have a timeframe for profitability, though they are clearly comfortable about buying marketshare for the time being.

- Markets do not inexplicably crash. They crash because share price valuations bear no relationship to earnings potential, and because people have been speculating on a large number of share prices going up, rather than investing in those companies' ability to earn in relation to their shareprice. They crash because people who do understand the correlation between price and value sell out, triggering panic amongst those who don't understand.

- In my opinion, it would be risky to hold both XRO and PEB, since they both have share prices that do not reflect actual earnings, but rather, the potential for future earnings. In the case of Xero, this means pushing up prices and reducing their cost structure, in the case of PEB, the ability for their product to foot it against older but more established diagnostic tests in key markets like USA and Europe. Holding both these stocks in large numbers would suggest you have an enormous appetite for risk!

- The time to be nervous about PEB is not now, but in around 6-9 months. It is then that PEB will need to have given indications as to whether US based urologists are going to use CxBladder or whether they are struggling with take-up. As mentioned above, someone who bought in around 20c should be feeling very comfortable. Someone who bought in at 45c would be considering the quick 50% paper profits in selling now, and someone who is buying at today's prices has the most to lose with the likelihood of maybe only doubling their money versus 75% losses over the next 12 months, and would either be someone very certain about PEBs prospects, or very clueless about the risk, or is curing their horse racing addiction with a speculative stock habit.

Thanks for your learned remarks Sparky - (& other contributors!!), it is much appreciated.

[skid]

Do not underestimate the ability of the American Medical system to do absolutely stupid things for purely political reasons-There are plenty of inferior tests being used as we speak,for reasons that dont put patients first.

[Dej]

Do not underestimate the ability of the American Medical system to do absolutely stupid things for purely political reasons-There are plenty of inferior tests being used as we speak,for reasons that dont put patients first.

Meaning you think that there is a chance the Americans may not pick up on this? Sorry if I interpreted wrong

[skid]

No im simply saying its not a given.
The politics in America are mind boggling. There are lobbyists in the medical community that wield huge influence on what actually happens.
All it takes is someone connected to the inferior product ,who is also in a position of power,especially in terms of the large insurance contracts to keep a better product from getting a foothold.
America is rife with conflict of interest situations--a bit like the past vice president [Chaney]being on the board of Halliburton[builds military bases] while being involved with making decisions on going to war.
The military and Pharmaceutical-medical, are the 2 big ones.
Im not saying this is definitely the case ,but in light of the speculative nature of whats been happening in the last 3 weeks with the share price,its one more thing to put into the mix when determining your appetite for risk.

[Dej]

Really? So no medical ethics, no integrity and no personal responsibility, is that what you are saying about the American medical system?

I do think some big private American practises act more like a business than NZ ones (eg maximising profit if they can), but not to that extreme.

But hey, Im not American so how would I know