PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[t.rexjr]

500,000 shares sold 3c above market price pre close yesterday. Ahead of report some larger buyers thinking current SP looking attractive.

Wouldn't read anything into that

[Walter]

Currently it is on the AUA sometimes tolerated list. If it makes it to the recommended list litigation lawyers could have a field day with non users. Will that ever happen? Lots of the share price says yes, but I'm now cynical enough of the medical system in the USA to be drifting towards no. The fact the Australia and Singapore have a very slow ramp is further cause for concern.

[Harrie]

Currently it is on the AUA sometimes tolerated list. If it makes it to the recommended list litigation lawyers could have a field day with non users. Will that ever happen? Lots of the share price says yes, but I'm now cynical enough of the medical system in the USA to be drifting towards no. The fact the Australia and Singapore have a very slow ramp is further cause for concern.

If its that good and also non invasive it will eventually be adopted. It has to because more and more clients when they are presented with blood in the urine and see a urologist will have read up about diagnostic methods in determining what could be causing it and how to test for it. I would go for Cxb any day of the week rather than risk a cysto with the risk of side issues. Its not uncommon for medical facilities to be slow with adoption. PEB need to work with the AUA and work out what the issue is. It can't be lack of clinical evidence after 7 years of data collection....surely?
PEB is one of those companies that just need a hint of a new institutional revenue source and you could see a move of 40%+ in the SP with no sellers in-between
keep in mind also that they are working on non invasive tests for other common diseases.

[psychic]

Are the tests that good? Are they good enough to replace cystoscopy? If they were as you say, and there was sufficient evidence available to support adoption, then I say you would have proof in uptake by now. Simple.

The AUA don't recommend Cxbladder at all, you will find no specific mention of it in the guidelines. All they have done is to say (with the very weakest of recommendations) is that urinary biomarkers might be used in certain situations as an adjunct. But generally, the use is not recommended.

It is very difficult for us to understand the why's in such a (well to me anyway) complex game. If we are to believe what PE tell us, then yes, the tests would seem to be an easy choice over cystoscopy. But the stats bandied about, the NPV etc perhaps do not provide the complete picture. Someone might like to clarify for me but I think the results will depend on the the group being tested, the grade of cancer, and role of the test etc. What are the false positives? How reliable and independent were the studies (most of the studies are by staff or associates of Pacific Edge)

So I now simply look for evidence that what Pacific Edge say is happening, is happening. And I have yet to see it, on oh so many fronts over the years. I've seem some encouraging independent studies on quite a few of the Cxbladde tests, but most seem to finish off with the "more evidence required' sort of thing.

I will attempt to embed a comparative table from a recent study and provide the link. Is Cxbladder monitor the best choice?
This suggests that from 1000 patients Cxbladder Monitor would have avoided 500 cystoscopies while the newer tests Uromonitor and Epicheck would have avoided 706 and 740 respectively. Cxbladder was lowest of the four, yet highest in unnecesssry cysto's (false positives)

How certain should we be?

cxbladder montor comparison.jpg

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...88931121001838

[Harrie]

That's pretty fair comment Psychic thanks.

I think that we are all a little bewildered by what is being put out there and whether the tests have been conducted over the same group of 1000 people at the same stage. Uromonitor and Epicheck show some pretty impressive results but over what time frame and samples of different stages have they been conducted?

Also, is there any evidence that the AUA are recommending any UBT's? It looks like its just the same old story waiting for a hundred years of evidence!

We know that survey was published by European oncology, but again some of the UBT's have not been around long enough for any performance reliability, and that is pretty clearly stated.

I would have thought that KP would have done a lot of research before adopting Cxb. Thats a positive for Cxb.

DNA UBT types appear to be new to market and less proven than MRNa types.(Cxb)

[psychic]

Harry, sorry no -the comparison has been made by pooling the results of published studies, so it is not as if a group of 1000 BC patients have each been tested by the four markers. But I imagine it would have only been published if the method and reasoning were valid. I see Yair Loten was involved in some capacity, a name that is on the Author list of many studies into bladder cancer diagnosis, I think he was also on the advisery panel for PEB at one time?

And yes, the other tests are in various stages of commercialisation. Who knows if they will make it either. I guess my point was that Cxb Monitor was supposed to be the mover and shaker with the high NPV etc but you can see that it can be bettered and arguably, it might be the unacceptable level of false positives stopping it from gaining acceptance, as I think appies to the other CXb tests..

Yes KP have completed a lot of research over the years into ways they might reduce cystoscopies, well before PE approached them with Triage. But go back and look at the announcements. Years that "trial" went on, and nothing was announced. Essentially they didn't go with Triage. Later, PE say they went with monitor (?) and later still, all cxb tests. But I am very very doubtful they are using many as I am doubtful CMS are.

[Maxtrade]

Lack of public updates from new CEO after investing proceeds from Cap Raise for new US based sales team. CEO and management invested well aware of decline in SP. Haven't made announcement to support or prevent such, likelihood waiting for March announcement to have some impact rather than feather things in the interim. Giving the sales team time to become established. Timing not ideal with Pandemic/Ukraine. Most likely saving any positive news may balance out the overall global poor market conditions. Update most likely won't show much advancement in immediate revenue/sales, but shareholders can hope indication of progress with networking and relationships forming for integration.

The fact still remains, if you asked anyone who has had a cystoscopy if they would rather have used cx-bladder if it were available to them, pretty sure we know what the answer would be. Main reason SP has been declining is obviously a combination of overall market influences of recent months, pandemic, interest rates and Putin's insanity. At the point now where it could be viewed the perfect storm and SP at a bargain to last cap raise 1.35 and recent SP 1.5 plus. Coming out of pandemic, world re-opening up, boarders opening. Tables very soon turning against Russia, Putin losing following of the Russian people themselves including his own troops. The 'Fear factor' involved will subside, likely now to see a pretty solid rebound in market and especially Tech stocks (PEB following this trend). Not unlikely could see these bounces as swiftly as the increases in PEB SP seen last year when jumped 20 - 40% within ~24-48hrs each time.

[psychic]

A man see's what he wants to see I guess...

If I were asked how I'd like my cancer diagnosed, I'd probabaly go with the recommendation of my Urologist. But I do recognise that personal choice over science and informed opinion has become something of a thing these days.

If there was ever a time when a simple, reliable, established home test might defer an office cystoscopy, the last few years have been extraordinary.

If a share price makes huge gains on the back of misleading and/or generally misunderstood announcements, my worry would be that it can fall as hard, if not harder, when the market sees no follow through. Been there, done that. Bloody hurts.

[LoungeLizzard]

A man see's what he wants to see I guess...

If I were asked how I'd like my cancer diagnosed, I'd probabaly go with the recommendation of my Urologist. But I do recognise that personal choice over science and informed opinion has become something of a thing these days.

If there was ever a time when a simple, reliable, established home test might defer an office cystoscopy, the last few years have been extraordinary.

If a share price makes huge gains on the back of misleading and/or generally misunderstood announcements, my worry would be that it can fall as hard, if not harder, when the market sees no follow through. Been there, done that. Bloody hurts.

I'm not sure that's a fair representation. It's not a case of personal opinion over science - it's all science. PEB have largely cleared the regulatory hurdles, they've done the trials and the results are encouraging. Whether you think the results or even the product itself is worthy of it's share price or market attention, then that is another matter, and one for the individual investor to judge for themselves. No one has a crystal ball that can give's them the right to say their opinion is the definitive one and everyone else's is uninformed.
As I've said, this year will be a make or break year for PEB for many investors. They've got the beginnings of market traction and they've got the funds and sales force. if that starts to translate into throughput then the SP will bounce rapidly as it has done before. If not, the market will deliver i's judgement.

[psychic]

Maxtrade suggested folk would choose Cxbladder over a cystoscopy. Unless one has the necessary background to make an informed decision about the reliability of a diagnostic test then I think most, with their lives at stake, would follow the recommendation of someone who is able to make an informed decision. The AUA make informed decisions, and they do not recommend it. The tests are not insured.

I didn't for a moment intend that everyone should think what I do or suggest opinions other than mine wer misinformed. This is a forum, we discuss stocks.