PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[BigBob]

If it were clinicians then it would've said that as that surely...? Mind you each clinician isn't likely to be doing multiple tests a month so whether a user is patient or clinician probably neither here nor there...

Of course a "user" could also be both patient and clinician...

Indeed... Could be either or both... Maybe anyone who orders a test...? I do think clinicians with many patients would likely be ordering more than one test per month... Very unlikely that an individual patient would...

Strange wording regardless - they have previously always referred to clinicians and patients....

[psychic]

Yes that "500 monthly users" line a bit hard to fathom. Can't be throughput, that'd be awful.

The "dramatically increased the size of it's presence in Main Exhibition Hall" means it had a 20'x10' in-line booth this year. Exciting.
But I can't see that there was any yabber about Cxbladder in any of the presentations? So no significant swing in adoption, just nice chats?

Just suggesting they got the warm fuzzies a bit of an odd announcement to specifically bring to market this close to results I thought?

[pierre]

Rather than speculate as to what PEB means by "500 monthly users" I have just emailed the company asking them to clarify the statement. I will publish an update when they respond.

[Minerbarejet]

What should be maybe considered is that 500 "users" are not following AUA guidelines these days due to the overwhelming need for AUA to up their act after 2 years of covid related non events.

[Minerbarejet]

Indeed... Could be either or both... Maybe anyone who orders a test...? I do think clinicians with many patients would likely be ordering more than one test per month... Very unlikely that an individual patient would...

Strange wording regardless - they have previously always referred to clinicians and patients....

Individual patients would have a physician/ urologist attached somewhere in the process for the test results.

A patient in home test would require physician/ urologist authorization in order for billing and test results to take place.

Its not like you can rush out and get a 6 pack of tests at Walmart.

[pierre]

I received the following reply from PEB to my request for clarification of the term "500 monthly users" in their recent communication to shareholders following the AUA meeting:

"The “users” we refer to is the ordering clinician, of which most are US based. Our Account Executive team in the US are focused on increasing test adoption by urologists, who are the users of the test to assist in the assessment of their patients."


That's positive though, of course, the next question is: What is the average number of tests per month ordered by each clinician? Hopefully that information might be revealed in the FY report at month-end.

I did a Google search and found that in 2019 the US urologist population totaled around 13,000. That means only ~4% of them are using Cxbladder so there's plenty of room for growth.

[850man]

Thanks for researching and sharing that reply Pierre

[Minerbarejet]

I received the following reply from PEB to my request for clarification of the term "500 monthly users" in their recent communication to shareholders following the AUA meeting:

"The “users” we refer to is the ordering clinician, of which most are US based. Our Account Executive team in the US are focused on increasing test adoption by urologists, who are the users of the test to assist in the assessment of their patients."


That's positive though, of course, the next question is: What is the average number of tests per month ordered by each clinician? Hopefully that information might be revealed in the FY report at month-end.

I did a Google search and found that in 2019 the US urologist population totaled around 13,000. That means only ~4% of them are using Cxbladder so there's plenty of room for growth.

Thanks Pierre - good news

[Minerbarejet]

I received the following reply from PEB to my request for clarification of the term "500 monthly users" in their recent communication to shareholders following the AUA meeting:

"The “users” we refer to is the ordering clinician, of which most are US based. Our Account Executive team in the US are focused on increasing test adoption by urologists, who are the users of the test to assist in the assessment of their patients."


That's positive though, of course, the next question is: What is the average number of tests per month ordered by each clinician? Hopefully that information might be revealed in the FY report at month-end.

I did a Google search and found that in 2019 the US urologist population totaled around 13,000. That means only ~4% of them are using Cxbladder so there's plenty of room for growth.

By that I take it they mean that 500 ordering clinicians are using cxbladder at least once a month so at a minimum we have 500 times 12 = 6000 tests times 1000NZd for a minimum of 6,000,000 per annum with just one patient tested per month.
One patient a week by the 500 mentioned would produce 24,000,000.

Think we might be in for a surprise this week.

[zs_cecil]

By that I take it they mean that 500 ordering clinicians are using cxbladder at least once a month so at a minimum we have 500 times 12 = 6000 tests times 1000NZd for a minimum of 6,000,000 per annum with just one patient tested per month.
One patient a week by the 500 mentioned would produce 24,000,000.

Think we might be in for a surprise this week.

What about taking FY22H1 data for the estimate :-)

In FY22H1, there are 9,192 commercial tests.
So, each user have 3 tests per month in average.

9,192 ÷ 6 ÷ 500 = 3.06 test per user per month.

Let's assume 3 to 4 tests per month per user is a reasonable range for the entire financial year.

We have 18,000 to 24,000 commercial test in FY22.

500 × 3 × 12 = 18,000
500 × 4 × 12 = 24,000

Please note that the commercial test number in FY21 was 12,975.