PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Minerbarejet]

What about taking FY22H1 data for the estimate :-)

In FY22H1, there are 9,192 commercial tests.
So, each user have 3 tests per month in average.

9,192 ÷ 6 ÷ 500 = 3.06 test per user per month.

Let's assume 3 to 4 tests per month per user is a reasonable range for the entire financial year.

We have 18,000 to 24,000 commercial test in FY22.

500 × 3 × 12 = 18,000
500 × 4 × 12 = 24,000

Please note that the commercial test number in FY21 was 12,975.

Couple of problems with that for me.

Are you using the 9,192 figure from P7 of the HY2022 report?
If so that is a worldwide figure and is a cash income figure (NZD$000 on the side) not actual test tally as far as I can see.

On another unrelated matter:
Much enthusiasm at the AUA by PEBs account - could be that some of the 500 current monthly users would have attended and made a fair bit of noise on PEB's behalf having had great support from the cxbladder test.
Where better to get the word out and influence the outcome than at a major AUA conference moderated by a long term supporter of the cxbladder products, Dr Ashish Kamat

[pierre]

By that I take it they mean that 500 ordering clinicians are using cxbladder at least once a month so at a minimum we have 500 times 12 = 6000 tests times 1000NZd for a minimum of 6,000,000 per annum with just one patient tested per month.
One patient a week by the 500 mentioned would produce 24,000,000.

Think we might be in for a surprise this week.

I've done similar calculations and believe there is a good chance we finally may start to see our patience being rewarded.

[zs_cecil]

Couple of problems with that for me.

Are you using the 9,192 figure from P7 of the HY2022 report?
If so that is a worldwide figure and is a cash income figure (NZD$000 on the side) not actual test tally as far as I can see.

Yes, I use that figure from P7 of the presentation. The cash receipt was reported in Page 9. So, I thought the NZ$000 on page 7 was a mistake in the presentation.

[Minerbarejet]

I've done similar calculations and believe there is a good chance we finally may start to see our patience being rewarded.

There is another wrinkle to all this in that we are assuming that everything is all evenly spaced each month.
With the Monitor system there may be lots of urologists using a test every three months or so which would fit in with the regimen and may have initiated coverage with several patients at the start simultaneously.
Lets hope the information is forthcoming this week - we have been in the dark long enough.

As far as rewards go, Pierre, the length of time it has taken so far indicates a SP of at least 5.00 would be required as adequate compensation.

[DonkeyKong]

Cheers minerbarejet that’s a great post with good information for me to dig into.

Interesting thoughts t.rexjr. I saw in today’s presentation slides that their Q1 FY22 their total laboratory throughput grew 9% on the previous quarter, Q4 FY21. Without knowing at all whether this is a fair assumption or not. If one assumed they have 9% growth quarter on quarter this year. That could put their throughput at 1.09^4 times the size of Q4 FY21 for the year. So using the numbers I could find quickly:
- 15814 total throughput for FY21
- Q1FY22 up 35% on FY21 quarterly average

That would put FY22 throughput at 15814/4*1.35+15814*3/4*1.35*1.09^3 = 26073 rounded up. So 64.87% increase or 10529 increase in absolute terms.

I’m not sure what I think about that. And I do wonder if this is the type of thing that could have snowballing growth which could make the assumption unfair. Anyways, it has given me some interesting stuff to dig into and will be interesting to see how it plays out for PEB.

This was a rough projection I did back in September 2021

It played out pretty accurately for the half year results.

If I get time before the full year results. I'll try revisit it taking into account the 500 users information.

[pierre]

As far as rewards go, Pierre, the length of time it has taken so far indicates a SP of at least 5.00 would be required as adequate compensation.

I'm not greedy Miner but I do like lot - you're obviously much the same!

[kiora]

Why, after so many years, investors are still in the dark and assume a lot about this company?

[jridler]

Why, after so many years, investors are still in the dark and assume a lot about this company?

All will be clear in 2 days when the FY results are released.

[Minerbarejet]

All will be clear in 2 days when the FY results are released.

Regardless of what happens more patients will be required.




Ill get my coat.

[Retired Doc]

Regardless of what happens more patients will be required.




Ill get my coat.

Thanks Miner


Patients and patience.......?

Re the 500 clinical users (thanks Pierre) and the estimate by Cecil of 3-4 tests per user per month I would expect that any urologist convinced of the worth of CxB would have occasion to use the test a lot more frequently than 3 -4 times per month and maybe those figures include late adopters.

I have the impression that the numbers are “a little bit exponential”.

Thursday reveals...........