PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[psychic]

I get that Covid has restricted face to face calls and this may have impacted uptake with some Urologists. But if ever there was a time when an at home test might have been invaluable and a great tool this was it, surely? There just isn't the confidence and the slow uptake and need to hard sell proves this I think. New Zealand sales flat year on year on year, yet we have full adoption by 70% of DHB's and in the cinical pathway here.
And a caveat on US growth and commercial test throughput, consider that these tests do not necessarilly convert to revenue. If they are not covered (or considered medically necessary by CMS) they are not reimbursed. And I am starting to suspect that this is the case more often than not.

[Snow Leopard]

While there are a lotta gotchas in revenue recognition I am thinking that average revenue for a commercial test is NZ$600 and that with a 85% US bias.

To be honest I am not impressed with this result.

[Minerbarejet]

Blast from the past - 2013

The Pennsylvania lab has the capacity to process 260,000 tests a year and Mr Swann is confident the company will processing ''several tens of thousands of tests'' next year.

and

He reiterated earlier estimates, of achieving an annual $US100 million turnover within five years, noting that was a mid-range estimate.

Should note that even when raving about $US100 he really meant more because he seduced punters with that just being the mid range of estimates

Here's the ODT story from 2013 .... change a few names and they coud publish it again today

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/pacific-edge-business

Swann did decent thing back thing - sold a lot of shares at those inflated prices .... needed a new deck he said

Sometimes we have to take into account that there may be plenty of other reasons for selling besides needing a new deck.
And anyway I was under the impression it was Dave that needed the new deck.

[850man]

When it comes to free tests vs paid for tests, the report states:
"• Annual operating revenue increased 49% to $11.4 million, while total revenue increased 33% to $13.9 million
• Total laboratory throughput (TLT) of Cxbladder tests increased 46% to 23,086 tests, while commercial tests (CT) increased 48% to 19,196 tests"

Taking the $11.4M figure as the income from tests and the CT number of 19,196 that comes out just shy of $600 a pop. I may be totally wrong with these calcs, just taking a guess from what was published.

So around 17% of tests were free. Looking at the growth rate of 48% in commercial tests - if they keep that up, things are definitely trending in the right direction

[psychic]

When it comes to free tests vs paid for tests, the report states:
"• Annual operating revenue increased 49% to $11.4 million, while total revenue increased 33% to $13.9 million
• Total laboratory throughput (TLT) of Cxbladder tests increased 46% to 23,086 tests, while commercial tests (CT) increased 48% to 19,196 tests"

Taking the $11.4M figure as the income from tests and the CT number of 19,196 that comes out just shy of $600 a pop. I may be totally wrong with these calcs, just taking a guess from what was published.

So around 17% of tests were free. Looking at the growth rate of 48% in commercial tests - if they keep that up, things are definitely trending in the right direction

I can't be fagged tonight working it out but note 5 to the accounts did not fill me with much confidence that revenue declared is likely to be received. Such uncertain yap about Insurers and CMS who may or may not pay etc etc. Clearly $11m was received in cash this year (refer cashflow statement) but how much of this was generated prior period I have not worked out. Quite a bit I would think if my Friday night recolllection of CMS timing/ changes to PE's revenue recognition is not totally mush. But consider that majority of sales are US and reimbursed by CMS - at an agreed rate (circa US$750) then at a glance I'd say there is a lot more freebies going on and commercial throughput growth is not something I think I'd want to hang my hat on for the next year - which I hope will not be as news free as I expect.

Just cringe at the SP action today, down 10 cents then magically up to close even without depth to the bid. Cannot help but suggest this is being massaged yet again. It goes on..

[psychic]

PREVIOUSLY UNRECOGNISED REVENUE
Approximately 40% of Cxbladder tests performed by the Group in the US up to 30 June 2020 relate to patients
covered by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). The Group invoiced CMS for tests performed
for all patients with CMS coverage, however no revenue from these 22,634 tests has been recognised in the past.
In previous Financial Statements the Group reported that while no revenue has been received or recognised on
these 22,634 tests, the Group still noted the potential of future receipt as negotiations continued. Negotiations
have concluded and no further avenue is available for the Group to obtain reimbursement.


There's say NZ$22m worth of ramping and hope gone just like that. Let you all know by way of a note to the accounts. Pfft

[Habits]

VWAP .... weighted average price 71.8cps, closed 77

[Maxtrade]

I can't be fagged tonight working it out but note 5 to the accounts did not fill me with much confidence that revenue declared is likely to be received. Such uncertain yap about Insurers and CMS who may or may not pay etc etc. Clearly $11m was received in cash this year (refer cashflow statement) but how much of this was generated prior period I have not worked out. Quite a bit I would think if my Friday night recolllection of CMS timing/ changes to PE's revenue recognition is not totally mush. But consider that majority of sales are US and reimbursed by CMS - at an agreed rate (circa US$750) then at a glance I'd say there is a lot more freebies going on and commercial throughput growth is not something I think I'd want to hang my hat on for the next year - which I hope will not be as news free as I expect.

Just cringe at the SP action today, down 10 cents then magically up to close even without depth to the bid. Cannot help but suggest this is being massaged yet again. It goes on..

Yeah crazy SP action, but which way was the massage. Pushed down for the million or so to buy in around 0.70. Or ?? Was looking for the bounce off 0.70 as per my first post today. I agree the SP's are so manipulated these days, pretty hard to make sense of the movements and action today.

[t.rexjr]

The thing with PEB is when it rallies it rallies hard and fast. So if you aren't already in then overnight can miss out on large gains.

For example from May 29th - June 19th 2020 an increase in share price of 150%

From May to July 2020 increased 525%

From Aug to Dec 2020 another 90%
From March 2021 to April 2021 increased another 20%
From May 2021 to Aug 2021 increased another 20%
From Aug 2021 to Sept 2021 increased another 10%

Point being sold gains abruptly off short periods of time.

All it takes is for one of the partnerships to flourish this year (most likely in the US) and with that announcement would see a huge rally again in SP. With how far the current SP has fallen back it would in turn now be highly feasible to see an abrupt rally in SP of 220% pushing SP back up to the 1.4/1.5 with such news. That would be a gain we wouldn't want to miss out on sitting on the sidelines. The fact the instos are NOT selling is also positive. Cancer diagnostics and other health related issues that have been on the back burner during Covid, will ramp back up too the forefront as we now transition out of Covid globally. The states are already seeing more cancer and heart related patients prioritising. How many of us have put off checkups, skin cancer scans, prostate checkups, etc even dental appointments during Covid times. Normality will bring important matters such as cancers back to where they should be, top priority. The fact remains CX-bladder still offers a unique viable screening method that is just getting implemented and utilised in its largest market the US. The fact they were able to gain any traction during the last two years of Covid should be looked upon positively. The market can be harsh on SP with so many retail investors now, selling out of fear, buying out of FOMO. PEB still offers what it has, that has not changed and will continue to grow.

Jeepers...

Hard and fast was the perfect storm not the norm. DD played the perfect hand.
Credible posters debunked the hype but were not heard.
Covid was the very reason that the mass adoption was suddenly plausible, now it's used as an excuse.
There is nothing fast moving about this industry. FOMO and hype vs facts and history. The winners were those that took heed of the latter and made the most of the former. Good luck getting history to repeat

[winner69]

Yeah crazy SP action, but which way was the massage. Pushed down for the million or so to buy in around 0.70. Or ?? Was looking for the bounce off 0.70 as per my first post today. I agree the SP's are so manipulated these days, pretty hard to make sense of the movements and action today.

Share price ‘manipulated’ these days …….don’t think so maxtrade

Don’t fall into the trap of using ‘manipulation’ just to make yourself feel better about a falling share price ……bad for you.