PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Rego55]

I personally think the shares will drift lower - maybe closer to the 1.40 mark next week. Not because the report said anything inherently bad but mainly because it didn't say anything amazing and there'll be a few people out there who enjoyed the activity while it lasted and will now move on to something new. My impression is that people trade on news and no news is not good news for them so they'll pull out and find a new stream to play in. Personally, I like the look of the product. I would like to get in but not at the current price and I'll be watching on regulation of LDTs. I'd like to know how Cxbladder stacks up in terms of the rigor put into the product testing by PEB. I assume it's pretty good but would be nice to know to hear some commentary from them on possible regulation and how they feel they'd negotiate any possible barriers in the future. N'est-ce pas?

[karen1]

PEB, love you long time; some poster have premature evaluation.

Razorblades for breakfast, Hancocks?

Love it, think this one has to be the best!

[Balance]

PEB, love you long time; some poster have premature evaluation.

Will always be the case, Hancocks, that short term traders will be attracted by uptrending volatile stocks.

Makes them feel like masters of the stock trading universe, buying in and selling out for 10% odd gain.

Then talking up or talking down the stock to fit their trading position.

Meanwhile, those who patiently invest and sit on the stock makes several hundred %tage gains - like PEB from 28 cents to $1.40 (400%).

The short term traders make their 25% and good on them.

So come one, come all - it's all in perspective.

One thing for sure, those of us who have followed your postings know we owe you big for being so patient and your willingness to share your analysis and knowledge.

Cheers and wishing you a good weekend!

Let's enjoy the fact that PEB is post its capital raising and is sitting close to its all time high.

[MAC]

Perhaps you all can check my understanding of the cxbladder loop with this example, not having a background in insurance myself;

Say Chuck is a machine operator in Ohio who has just had another routine random drug test, no drugs were discovered as usual, but the drug test lab noted blood present in the urine sample. Quite worried, Chuck appropriately takes the afternoon off work, goes to his trusted GP who for caution refers him onto a specialist. (Aside, this scenario happened to a former colleague of mine when he visited Tiwai Point).

The specialist urologist pops a cxbladder test kit out of his draw and while Chuck is in the next room peeing in a jar for the second time in a week the urologist fills out the accompanying form with all Chuck’s important insurance and policy number details. Chuck does not have medicare coverage but does have a plan with ACME insurance which is provided through his employer.

PEDusa receives Chucks sample, processes it, and returns the test results within six days. The urologist explains to Chuck that there is no cancer, must have been last week’s spicy meatloaf, but come back for a follow up test in six months to be sure.

PEDusa note from their database that ACME insurance are a registered client of one of the PPO’s with whom PEDusa have a contract to deliver tests at a special price of $550. PEDusa thus invoice ACME directly at this special rate and duly receive payment within the next accounting cycle.

Chuck gives up meatloaf, continues to produce widgets in the factory, and lives happily ever after satisfied knowing he was neither probed nor charged a cent.

So, between the signed up PPO’s that PEB now have on the books, FedMed, ACPN, and Stratose there are presently 60 million potential Chuck’s with standing insurance policies, ready and waiting if a cxbladder test is required. Have I got this right ?

[Balance]

I enjoy a researched negative; or, a researched positive post, the traders can post some good perspective although it can get a bit cluttered sometimes.

My post was just me venting, some of the posters can spark an argumentative response in me and I don’t want to get involved in that. So I go for a graffiti attack and that is paint their metaphoric fence when they are asleep and run away chuckling, it give me some degree of satisfaction, but is unfortunately a shot-gun approach.

Haha, Hancocks, even saints have limits to their patience and I don't think you would want to be considered a saint!

The ones I find most amusing (and maybe most annoying) are those who do bugger all analysis, have missed the boat and ruefully watch from the shore, jumping up and down at every small wave pronouncing that the small wave is going to capsize the super liner!

What to do but throw them a few sympathy glances once a while?

[Minerbarejet]

Just a point if anyone can help. They say there have been three sales. Does this mean there have been three actual cases processed through the lab in Hershey, accounts have been sent and payment received. Presumably there is a bit of the old " 20th of the month following" which gives a lead time of about six weeks in some cases. So in real terms the sales figure could possibly only reflect July to Mid August and possibly none of September at all
Perhaps it would be more revealing to know how many kits are going out the door rather than in.

[Intel]

Perhaps you all can check my understanding of the cxbladder loop with this example, not having a background in insurance myself;

Say Chuck is a machine operator in Ohio who has just had another routine random drug test, no drugs were discovered as usual, but the drug test lab noted blood present in the urine sample. Quite worried, Chuck appropriately takes the afternoon off work, goes to his trusted GP who for caution refers him onto a specialist. (Aside, this scenario happened to a former colleague of mine when he visited Tiwai Point).

The specialist urologist pops a cxbladder test kit out of his draw and while Chuck is in the next room peeing in a jar for the second time in a week the urologist fills out the accompanying form with all Chuck’s important insurance and policy number details. Chuck does not have medicare coverage but does have a plan with ACME insurance which is provided through his employer.

PEDusa receives Chucks sample, processes it, and returns the test results within six days. The urologist explains to Chuck that there is no cancer, must have been last week’s spicy meatloaf, but come back for a follow up test in six months to be sure.

PEDusa note from their database that ACME insurance are a registered client of one of the PPO’s with whom PEDusa have a contract to deliver tests at a special price of $550. PEDusa thus invoice ACME directly at this special rate and duly receive payment within the next accounting cycle.

Chuck gives up meatloaf, continues to produce widgets in the factory, and lives happily ever after satisfied knowing he was neither probed nor charged a cent.

So, between the signed up PPO’s that PEB now have on the books, FedMed, ACPN, and Stratose there are presently 60 million potential Chuck’s with standing insurance policies, ready and waiting if a cxbladder test is required. Have I got this right ?

I believe your pretty close, but missing the key piece of the puzzle. ACME (as an inurance provider) still has to approve CX-bladder as a product that they will re-imburse. The economic evaluation of a product will be decided by those that pay the money (the insurance companies), so we must wait until they are satisifed that using Cx-bladder is worth more to them than the status quo! These PPO's that have been signed, really do act as middle men and payment processors. One of the benfits for a small insurer is to hook into these networks as the networks become large and they ca push on price by buying on bulk. If you go and have a look at the largest health insurers in america (Kaiser, Wellpoint, United Health, Aetna, BSBC) they have coverage of ~ 10m + lives, and because of this will have extensive networks of their own (as Frank lucas famously put it, "go direct to the manufacturer, cut out all the middlemen"). I must admit I am quite astonished at how the market has priced these PPO deals, they dont allow someone to be reimbursed for using CX-bladder, and in fact their business model relies on having every medical product available on earth on their books so they can clip the ticket as often as possible.. Lets hope thenext signing is an insurance provider, allthough I wouldnt really be expecting that until at least March - June next year...

[Casino]

so we must wait until they are satisifed that using Cx-bladder is worth more to them than the status quo!

Are you refering to cost-efficiency or pure clinical utility? Also do you know by any chance who most of the relevant demographic - old men with history of smoking - are insured with?

[psychic]

I believe your pretty close, but missing the key piece of the puzzle. ACME (as an inurance provider) still has to approve CX-bladder as a product that they will re-imburse. The economic evaluation of a product will be decided by those that pay the money (the insurance companies), so we must wait until they are satisifed that using Cx-bladder is worth more to them than the status quo! These PPO's that have been signed, really do act as middle men and payment processors. One of the benfits for a small insurer is to hook into these networks as the networks become large and they ca push on price by buying on bulk. If you go and have a look at the largest health insurers in america (Kaiser, Wellpoint, United Health, Aetna, BSBC) they have coverage of ~ 10m + lives, and because of this will have extensive networks of their own (as Frank lucas famously put it, "go direct to the manufacturer, cut out all the middlemen"). I must admit I am quite astonished at how the market has priced these PPO deals, they dont allow someone to be reimbursed for using CX-bladder, and in fact their business model relies on having every medical product available on earth on their books so they can clip the ticket as often as possible.. Lets hope thenext signing is an insurance provider, allthough I wouldnt really be expecting that until at least March - June next year...

Thanks Intel - well summed up. Hopefully this will clarify for all.

[MAC]

And that’s entirely fair isn’t it Intel, why should an insurer pay until they have already pre-approved cxbladder as one of their policy diagnostic tests. I guess the good thing about getting the PPO’s on board, as a first step, is that they may also assist PEB in endorsing and possibly pushing the 30% reduction in work up cost message to the insurers.

But, it is a five year plan not a five day plan after all, and the initial thrust may well be getting the PPO’s on board, gaining insurer approvals as they go, and GP’s and urologists progressively giving it a go once they know the patients don’t have to pay. I suspect though we will never know when insurers have pre-approved, or how many, this might be a good question for the next AGM in Dunedin.

In terms of SP valuation, I reckon bringing the PPO’s on board and having price points contractually set is good progress and PEB have recently affirmed that they are on track in meeting the five year $100M revenue goal.

My FA suggests PEB is fairly priced at present at $1.50, undervalued if you hold with the view that the $20.5M capital raising and the earlier engagement of the 19 sales staff will bring forward the proposed revenue stream.