PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Whipmoney]

Weird how these 'big sellers' are selling more and more, when these good news announcements have de-risked PEB further more, who knows, maybe some of these big sellers are thinking on the lines of whipmoney

Perhaps, Baller, but in my limited experience I have noticed that when someone wants to sell then good news is a good time to do it.. Because there's more volume buying at the current price. If they sold prior to the news then the price would drop quicker and they would get less return.

Your guess is as good as mine though.

Robbo has hit the nail on the head.

If I were a big holder and viewed the stock as currently over-valued then I would look to distribute (sell-down) just after the good news has come out whilst the stock is still bouyant and when there's lots of liquidity on the bid-side.

That way you can exit your position with a decent average sell-price as opposed to eekking out every cent of value and risk not being able to off-load all of your position at a decent price.

And poster were saying this wasn't a trading stock anymore. Every stock is a trading stock if you have the liquidity and price ranges necessary for it!

This is one falling knife I'd be happy to catch again

Now where has that B&E guy got to...?

Every stock will have traders to a degree but I have to ask... who are these mysterious traders with several hundred thousand shares? I would have always thought that the traders (as a group) are still relatively small in the scheme of things compared to the instos... unless of course theres some sizeable prop trader desks out there trading on leverage (as I know there is in Aussie).

[baller18]

Yes, I figured that out, to get the volume through with a good price, which I stated a few days ago.
However, I don't quite understand, if all these big sellers have been selling since every good announcement from last year, why are they still off loading so many shares? All these 100's of 100k parcels add up to 10's millions and millions. However, if we look it from the opposite perspective, apart from today, all these shares are getting eaten up at a consolidation price around 1.61-1.63, so that's a good sign in itself also maybe? So over-valued or not is hard to say, Bollinger bands are squeezed very tight, and the lower BB if I'm not wrong is at $1.61.
Maybe a few institutions are still re-balancing their portfolios? Or overvalued as whipmoney thinks?
Not too sure, just trying to understand the market.
Also it makes me wonder at the same time, if it is these institutions selling down, why can't they wait a month, 2 months or even 3-4 months? Something like a medicare announcement ( though nothing is 100% certain), but once again, we can never understand why people sell as there are various reasons behind it.
But, for institutions?
Happily holding
Just trying to learn and feel for the market more and more!
Pardon me for my essay lol

[Xerof]

There have been some decent sized bids as well lately. Perhaps they can see an urgency in the selling and pulled out late today. Who knows, not me but there is still good interest in this stock.

no sweat, the movements are not dramatic, and without news, those unbooked profits burn holes in pockets and weigh on short term nerves.

you are right to say large holders will distribute into good pockets of liquidity. In the NZ market they have little option

[MAC]

Institutions and some of the larger investors who have been in since as far back as 20c often have no choice but to manage their portfolio within strict and quite specific diversification limits and rules.

With a quickly growing stock like Pacific Edge some of them will be shedding shares every now and then as the share price continues to rise and will probably continue to do so as the company grows over the next few years.

My FA suggests PEB is undervalued, and will be even more so should they deliver on ‘the tens of thousands of sales in 2014’ guidance.

The patient investor gets the rewards the twitchy investor just gets to pay brokerage.

[Longhaul]

My FA suggests PEB is undervalued, and will be even more so should they deliver on ‘the tens of thousands of sales in 2014’ guidance.

Hmmm, haven't run any figures myself, but the question for me is what will we think of a price at $1.60 - $1.65 if PEB signs a large US deal? Depending on how likely you think a deal is, and/or how far away that might be, this may make $1.60 seem cheap or expensive.

Disc - holding tight.

[777]

Perhaps they are selling up to buy Genesis.

Now back to my hole.

[MAC]

I look at it this way Longhaul;

If you work from the Harbour Asset Management revenue curve, just simply because it’s a traceable one and is likely representative of present market thinking. It provides for US Cxbladder revenues up to the PEB goal of US$100M in 2018.

A DCF based on this revenue stream, inclusive of gross margin and other information provided by Pacific Edge will provide any competent analyst with a valuation at about present levels. Valuations based on this revenue curve may probably well continue to put a floor under the share price. That floor will continue to rise over time provided PEB deliver with the said revenues as they go.

There are though two additional aspects to consider that should probably further increase the valuation of the stock within 2014;

1. If PEB deliver on their guidance of providing ‘tens of thousands of sales in 2014’ then valuations will increase. Note for instance that the Harbour estimate of NZ$7.5M in 2014 equates to only 13,600 sales. PEB’s 'tens of thousands' guidance now spans a range of between 20,000 to 99,000 sales.

2. The anticipated new product releases planned for 2014 are yet to be adequately valued by most if not all analysts as there is still little accurate information available to do so, although this information may be better provided by PEB upon product release. There are at least two new products to be released in 2014 each with their own additional revenue streams to that above.

Trust this provides one humble analyst's perspective.

regards, Mac

Attachment 5546

[JohnnyTheHorse]

If you are looking to top up then wait until it becomes oversold and bounces off support. 150, 138-140, 130 and 120 are the places to watch.

[couta1]

Peb obtains 4.5mill grant from Callaghan Innovation

[biker]

Callaghan Innovation Growth Grant
10:00am, 27 Feb 2014 | GENERAL
Callaghan Innovation Growth Grant accelerates Cxbladder development

Pacific Edge is delighted to have the support of Callaghan Innovation to further accelerate the development of its molecular cancer detection technology.

Callaghan Innovation has announced a Growth Grant for Pacific Edge that will provide up to $4.5 million spread over three years with additional funding for a further two years available on review.

Pacific Edge Chief Operations Officer Jimmy Suttie says the Government’s Callaghan Innovation fund recognises the ability of the Company to turn scientific discovery into products that bring real benefits for clinicians and patients.

“This funding will provide additional resources to accelerate the development of a range of cancer detection tests, including further non-invasive bladder cancer tests under the brand of Cxbladder. Cxbladderdetect is now available to patients and their clinicians in the USA, New Zealand and Australia. This one-stop shop of products is designed to enhance the clinician’s perspective of the urological tract for patients presenting with symptoms of possible bladder cancer.”

Pacific Edge’s Chief Executive Officer David Darling says the Callaghan Innovation Growth Grant is also recognition for those shareholders who have supported Pacific Edge through the years of research, product development and commercialisation.

“Pacific Edge started out with a mission to make a real difference by finding ways to identify a range of cancers in their early stages when they can be treated with less devastating impact on peoples lives.”

Cxbladder is the first commercial result of that research. Pacific Edge also has patents for diagnostic and prognostic tests for a range of other cancers including colorectal, gastric and melanoma.

The Growth Grant will supplement Pacific Edge’s own research and product development budget and lead to the employment of further research staff at its Dunedin Headquarters and Research Facility.

For more information contact: